US Midterm Elections 2026 Polls, Odds and Race Ratings
This data room brings together the numbers that matter before the US midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. It shows the generic-ballot average, the ratings of three forecasters for every Senate race and the competitive House seats, and the live control odds, all free to download.
The average of 5 public generic-ballot averages has the Democrats on 50.8% and the Republicans on 42.5% for the House. On the middle rating of three forecasters, 6 Senate races and 20 House seats are toss-ups.
Key Facts
—Election. Tuesday 3 November 2026: all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats.
—Generic ballot. Democrats 50.8%, Republicans 42.5%, average of 5 public averages.
—Toss-ups. 6 Senate races and 20 House seats, on the middle of three forecasters.
—Control. 218 of 435 seats win the House; Republicans keep the Senate with 50 seats, Democrats need 51.
—Prediction markets. House: Democrats 92%; Senate: Democrats 65% (Polymarket, 21 October, 9:49 a.m. ET)
Data last changed 21 October 2026, 8:13 a.m. ET; last checked 21 October 2026, 8:13 a.m. ET. Averages and ratings are checked every 40 minutes, prediction markets every 20.
Who Leads the Generic Ballot
We average the public generic-ballot averages instead of single polls, so no one model decides the number. The list shows each of them with the date it was last updated.
Generic ballot · average of public averages Margin: Democrats +8.3 points Values and dates as listed in the comparison table on Wikipedia (“2026 United States House of Representatives elections”); the publishers update their own pages more often. Equal-weight mean; an average not updated for 21 days is left out. Each one links from the CSV. Generic ballot since April 2026 Weekly points from the averages as listed on each date, then every change we record.
Who Is Favoured to Win Congress
Prediction markets turn bets into a live probability for each chamber. The chart shows the daily price of a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate since January.
Prediction markets · US midterms, 3 November 2026
Implied chances from traders’ prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Who wins the House of Representatives
Polymarket: US$19.2 million traded. All 435 seats are on the ballot, and 218 make a majority.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): Democrats 90.7% · Republicans 9.4% (63,179,951 contracts traded, each paying US$1 if right).
Who wins the Senate
Polymarket: US$7.5 million traded. 35 of the 100 seats are on the ballot; Democrats need 51 seats, Republicans 50 because the vice president breaks ties.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): Democrats 66% · Republicans 35% (16,391,147 contracts traded, each paying US$1 if right).
Who controls Congress after the vote
Polymarket: US$27.6 million traded. A law needs both chambers, so a split Congress can block the other side.
As of 21 October, 9:49 a.m. ET (14:49 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Democrats’ chance of control on Polymarket, daily
Daily closing price of the Polymarket contracts “Democratic Party controls the House” and “… the Senate” (public price history). Prices are bets, not polls.
Race Ratings for the Senate and the House
Three nonpartisan forecasters rate every race from Safe to Toss-up, and we show the middle of their three ratings. That keeps one outlying call from deciding the label.
Senate · consensus of three forecasters
Races whose middle rating is Safe are left out of the list. Tilt means a very slight edge.
House · competitive seats
Toss-up seats (party now holding the seat)
137 seats rated competitive by at least one forecaster; every rating is in the CSV.
Key Dates in Eastern Time
Key dates · US Eastern Time
For a state-by-state list of closing times, see what time polls close in the 2026 midterms. Counting can take days in states that accept mail ballots after Election Day.
Download the Data
Free to use under CC BY 4.0: credit The Rio Times and link to this page. UTF-8, header row, ISO dates (YYYY-MM-DD).
Generic ballot: one row per public average (source, dates, dem_pct, rep_pct, margin_dem, url). Ratings: one row per Senate race and competitive House seat (cook, inside_elections, sabato, consensus). The JSON adds the trend and the daily Polymarket history.
How to Read This Data Room
The generic ballot is a mood reading. It measures national support for each party, but House seats are won district by district.
Ratings are judgments. Safe means near certain, Likely a strong edge, Lean a slight one and Toss-up no clear favourite.
Odds are bets, not polls. A price of 64 cents on a contract that pays US$1 reads as a 64% chance.
Watch the toss-ups. Control of each chamber will likely be decided in the races the forecasters cannot call.
How the Numbers Are Built
The generic-ballot figure is the plain mean of the public averages listed, each counted once. An average that has not been updated for 21 days drops out, and the history before today comes from the averages as they were listed each week.
The consensus rating is the middle of the ratings by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The odds chart uses Polymarket’s public daily price history, and the card above it adds Kalshi, an exchange regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Cite This Data
The data is free to use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence (CC BY 4.0). Please credit “Source: The Rio Times (riotimesonline.com/us-midterms-2026-data-room/)” and link to this page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in the 2026 midterm polls?
The Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8.3 points in the average of 5 public averages: 50.8% to 42.5%.
What is the generic ballot?
A poll question asking which party voters will support for Congress, without naming candidates. It measures the national mood, not seats.
How many Senate races are toss-ups?
6 Senate races are toss-ups on the middle rating of Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball.
When do polls close on election night?
The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday 3 November, in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The last close at 1 a.m. ET on 4 November in the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska.
Can I use this data?
Yes. Download the CSV or JSON for free under a CC BY 4.0 licence, credit The Rio Times and link to this page.
More on the Midterms
Start with our US midterms 2026 dossier and the explainer 2026 US midterm elections. For the markets and the Latino vote, read midterm odds and Latino voters in the midterms.
Sources: generic-ballot averages of Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, NBC News, RealClearPolitics and Silver Bulletin as listed on Wikipedia (“2026 United States House of Representatives elections”), each linked in the CSV; ratings of Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball as listed on Wikipedia (“2026 United States Senate elections”, “2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings”); Polymarket and Kalshi public price data. Compiled by The Rio Times; checked every 40 minutes.