Latino Voters Favor Democrats 51% to 24%
UNITED STATES · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —The country The United States, where all 435 House seats are on the ballot at the midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November.
- —Why it matters Pew says Trump won nearly half of Latino votes in 2024, so any slide in that support changes how both parties read the close House races.
- —Why now Pew Research Center released the survey on Friday 16 October 2026, and Spanish-language outlets were still carrying it on Sunday 18 October.
- —What happened Latino registered voters back Democratic House candidates over Republican ones by 51% to 24%, with 18% unsure and 7% choosing another candidate.
- —The numbers Trump’s job approval among these voters is 24%, down from 38% in February 2025, and 55% call their House vote a vote against him.
- —What it means for you US readers get a read on a group both parties court, and investors can set the 86% who call the economy very important next to the House odds.
- —Still open Whether the survey lead turns into votes on 3 November, and why a wire report gave 21% approval while Pew’s report gives 24%.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives the Democratic Party a 90.5% chance of controlling the House after the midterms (Monday 19 October, 1:57 a.m. ET).
Latino voters back Democratic candidates for the US House over Republican ones by 51% to 24%, according to a Pew Research Center report published on Friday 16 October 2026. Pew surveyed 774 Hispanic registered voters from Monday 28 September to Sunday 4 October, so the findings describe opinion in those seven days and not the final vote.
For US readers the finding matters because Pew says Trump won nearly half of Latino votes in 2024, and only 24% of Latino registered voters now approve of his job performance. Both parties are weighing what a shift among these voters could mean in close House races on Tuesday 3 November.
The story returned on Sunday 18 October, when Noticel in Puerto Rico ran an EFE wire headlined “Votantes latinos dan la espalda a Trump,” meaning Latino voters are turning their backs on Trump. The wire first moved on Friday 16 October and puts Trump’s approval at 21%, while Pew’s own report says 24%.
Latino Voters Back Democrats by 27 Points
Pew showed most respondents the candidates named on the ballot in their own congressional district, and 51% of Latino registered voters chose the Democrat and 24% the Republican. Another 18% said they were not sure and 7% picked another candidate, which leaves a Democratic lead of 27 percentage points.
In 2022 Latino voters backed Democrats over Republicans by 21 points, down from 47 points in 2018, and Trump won nearly half of their votes in 2024, Pew notes. A poll with 18% undecided is not directly comparable with those final results.
Among those who backed Kamala Harris in 2024, 84% support the Democratic House candidate. Among Trump’s 2024 backers, 65% support the Republican, 11% the Democrat, 14% another candidate and 10% are unsure.
Those who did not vote in 2024 lean Democratic by 47% to 18%, with 31% unsure. These groups are subsets of the 774 respondents, so their margins of error are wider than the 4.8 points Pew gives for the full group.
Engagement among Democratic supporters is higher than in 2022, with 77% saying it really matters who controls Congress, up from 58%, and 53% extremely motivated to vote, up from 41%. Republican supporters show lower engagement, Pew says, though Latino registered voters overall are now about as interested as other registered voters.
How Latino Voters View Trump and the Parties
Pew puts Trump’s job approval among Latino registered voters at 24%, down from 38% in February 2025, near the start of his second term. Among those who backed him in 2024 it is 57%, down from 93%, a fall of 36 points.
Among his non-Hispanic 2024 backers, approval is 68%, down from 95%. Pew’s separate release of 8 October from the same survey puts approval among all US adults at 30%, with 68% disapproving.
A majority of Latino registered voters, 55%, call their House vote a vote against Trump, while 14% call it a vote for him and 30% say he is not much of a factor. Four years ago, 26% saw their vote as support for Joe Biden, 23% as opposition and 48% said he was not a factor.
Seven in ten Latino registered voters (70%) say the Trump administration’s policies have been harmful to Hispanics, 12% say helpful and 16% say no particular effect. About 61% say the situation of Hispanics in the US is worse than a year ago, against 11% who say better.
On the parties, 53% of Latino registered voters view the Democratic Party favorably, up from 44% before the 2024 election, and 29% view the Republican Party favorably. Even among backers, only 42% of Democratic supporters and 43% of Republican supporters say their party cares about people like them a great deal or quite a bit.
Economy and Deportations Shape the Vote
The economy is the top issue, with 86% of Latino registered voters calling it very important to their House vote, ahead of healthcare at 80%, education at 75%, the future of democracy at 69% and immigration at 64%. It ranks first among both Democratic supporters (89%) and Republican supporters (78%), while healthcare and education divide the two camps more sharply.
Only 19% rate US economic conditions as excellent or good, down from 26% a year ago, and 74% say Trump’s policies have made conditions worse, up from 61% in 2025. Pew says 80% are very concerned about gas and energy prices, up from 48% in January.
On deportations, 62% of Latino registered voters say the administration is doing too much, 22% say about the right amount and 14% say too little. Among all registered voters in the same survey the figures are 49% too much, 34% the right amount and 16% too little.
Republican-backing voters see it differently, with 47% saying the right amount and 33% too little, while 86% of Democratic supporters say too much. Pew notes that immigration-related arrests rose over the summer to a new high for this administration.
What the 18 October Reports Add
Noticel, a Puerto Rico news site, published the EFE wire on Sunday 18 October, and its text matches Pew on the House vote (51%, 24%, 18% and 7%), the 55% against-Trump share, the 70% harmful share and the 62% deportation share. EFE first moved the story on Friday 16 October, the day of Pew’s release, and El Nacional and Dominican Today also ran it.
What the Sunday report adds is the Spanish-language framing and the election date of 3 November, and it brings no new Pew data. Its description of the survey as online and by telephone matches Pew’s methodology.
The wire’s Trump numbers do not match the Pew pages we opened, which give 24% approval among Latino registered voters in both the report text and its chart. The 74% in Pew’s report is the share who say Trump’s policies have made economic conditions worse, and we found no 21% approval or 74% disapproval for these voters in the report, its topline or the 8 October release.
FingerLakes1, a New York news site, gave the 24% approval figure on Saturday 17 October and the same 51% to 24% House split. This article therefore uses Pew’s published numbers and treats the wire’s 21% and 74% as unconfirmed.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket gives the Democratic Party a 90.5% chance of controlling the House after the midterms, as of 1:57 a.m. ET on Monday 19 October. The House control event has drawn about US$18.4 million in bets, including about US$10.7 million on the Democratic contract.
Our 13 October article, Midterm Odds and the Limits of Trump’s Power, quoted the same 90.5%, three days before Pew’s release. The survey measures stated preferences of one group, while the market prices control of the whole chamber.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US campaigns, the survey shows Latino support for Democrats at 51% with 18% still undecided, which leaves a large group that neither party has secured. For investors, the House odds and the weight of the economy in the vote, with 86% naming it very important, are the figures to watch before Tuesday 3 November.
Readers in Latin America can read the survey as a measure of how the US Latino community judges immigration enforcement, with 62% saying the administration is doing too much on deportations. Our April 2026 report, Latino Catholic Vote Turns on Trump Over Pope Leo XIV, covers another part of the Latino electorate.
What Is Not Known
Pew’s report gives Trump’s approval at 24%, but the pages we opened do not state a disapproval share, so we cannot confirm the 74% disapproval in the EFE wire. The 21% approval in the wire does not match any figure we found.
The survey measures stated preferences among registered voters from 28 September to 4 October, with 18% unsure, and it does not show who will turn out on Tuesday 3 November. The margin of error for the 774 Latino registered voters is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
The pages we reviewed do not break the results out by state, by family origin such as Mexican or Puerto Rican, or by House race. It is therefore not known how the national numbers apply in any one district.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Pew find about Latino voters and the midterms?
Pew found that 51% of Latino registered voters back the Democratic House candidate in their district and 24% the Republican, with 18% unsure and 7% choosing another candidate. The report was published on Friday 16 October 2026.
How many Hispanic voters did Pew survey and when?
Pew surveyed 774 Hispanic registered voters, part of 5,062 US adults, from 28 September to 4 October 2026. The margin of error for the Latino registered voter group is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
What is Trump’s approval among Latino registered voters?
Pew puts it at 24%, down from 38% in February 2025. A Spanish-language wire report gave 21%, which does not match Pew’s published report.
Why do some reports say 74% disapprove of Trump?
The EFE wire carried that figure, but we did not find it in the Pew pages we opened. In Pew’s report, 74% of Latino registered voters say Trump’s policies have made economic conditions worse.
What does it mean for US readers?
It shows Latino support for Democrats well ahead of Republicans before the midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November, with the economy the top issue at 86%. It is a snapshot of opinion and not a forecast of turnout.
Sources: Pew Research Center, 16 October 2026; Pew topline and margins of error; Pew midterms report, 8 October 2026; Noticel (EFE), 18 October 2026; El Nacional (EFE), 16 October 2026; FingerLakes1, 17 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error