Ethiopia Harvest May Fall 30% as Kiremt Rains Fail
ETHIOPIA · FOOD SECURITY
Key Facts
- —What is the meher Ethiopia’s main harvest, fed by the kiremt rains of June to September. It produces more than 85% of the country’s crops.
- —What has gone wrong The kiremt rains failed across much of the country. Cumulative rainfall ranks among the driest on record.
- —How bad The famine early warning network FEWS NET says the meher harvest could be up to 30% below average nationally.
- —Why A strong El Niño. The US Climate Prediction Center has had an El Niño advisory in force since September, with the tropical Pacific 1.8 degrees above normal in August.
- —Who is worst affected Tigray, eastern Amhara, Afar and eastern Oromia. Some lowland areas may see little or no meher production at all.
- —Where it stands now Crisis-level food insecurity is widespread and expected to persist into January 2027.
Ethiopia grows most of its food in one harvest. This year the rains that feed it did not come.
Ethiopia’s main meher harvest could be up to 30% below average nationally, according to FEWS NET. The kiremt rains that feed it were among the poorest on record. A strong El Niño is under way in the Pacific.
One Harvest, Most of the Food
The kiremt rains run from June to September and feed the meher harvest, gathered from October.
FEWS NET puts the meher at over 85% of Ethiopia’s domestic crop production.
A second, smaller season called belg supplies the rest, mostly in the south and east.
When kiremt fails there is no second chance within the same year.
What the Rains Did
Rainfall was far below average across northern, eastern and central Ethiopia through the season.
FEWS NET’s August update, with data to 27 August, found deficits exceeding 50% of average across much of the country.
Cumulative seasonal rainfall ranks among the driest on record for most of Ethiopia.
Planting was delayed and maize and sorghum, the staples of the affected areas, are the crops most exposed.
The El Niño Behind It
The US Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño advisory on 10 September 2026.
Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific reached 1.8 degrees Celsius above normal in August.
The centre gives better than a 90% chance of a very strong event through the northern winter. It puts the chance of one exceeding any El Niño since 1950 at 75%.
The World Meteorological Organization puts the probability of continued El Niño conditions through early 2027 at effectively 100%. A return to neutral or La Niña is not anticipated.
Why El Niño Dries the Ethiopian Highlands
El Niño shifts rainfall patterns across the tropics, and in the Horn of Africa it typically suppresses the June to September rains.
The same event usually brings heavier rains to the region between October and December, which falls after the meher is already lost.
Ethiopia’s 2015 and 2016 drought, one of its worst in decades, followed the same pattern.
That is why a Pacific temperature reading matters to a farmer in Amhara.
Where It Is Worst
FEWS NET’s East Africa seasonal monitor of 11 September confirms below-average meher production for Tigray, eastern Amhara, Afar and eastern Oromia.
Some lowland areas may produce little or no meher crop at all.
The effect crosses the border. Kenyan maize production is running about 28% below average nationally and 43% below in the North Rift.
Ethiopia’s own meteorology institute forecast a poor season in May, so the outcome was anticipated.
What It Means for Prices and Hunger
Crisis-level food insecurity is already widespread and is expected to persist into January 2027.
FEWS NET reports 2.45 million people in Tigray alone needing emergency food assistance.
Ethiopian headline inflation was 15.3% in July 2026, which erodes purchasing power before any harvest shortfall reaches the market.
A short harvest raises cereal prices from October, which is exactly when a normal year would bring them down.
What Could Soften It
Ethiopia has expanded irrigated wheat production substantially, which is not dependent on kiremt rainfall.
The October to December rains are forecast to be enhanced. That helps pasture, livestock and belg planting, though it comes too late for the meher.
Government and humanitarian agencies have a functioning early warning system and knew this was coming from May.
None of that replaces 30% of a national harvest.
What to Watch
The harvest assessment from October, which converts a forecast into a measured shortfall.
Cereal prices in Ethiopian markets, the fastest indicator of whether the shortfall is biting.
The October to December rains, which determine whether livestock recover.
And humanitarian funding, which in a year like this decides how a shortfall translates into hunger.
More: Africa news and analysis, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How bad is Ethiopia’s harvest this year?
FEWS NET says the meher harvest could be up to 30% below average nationally. Some lowland areas may see little or no production.
What is the meher?
Ethiopia’s main harvest, fed by the June to September kiremt rains. It provides more than 85% of domestic crop production.
Is there really an El Niño?
Yes. The US Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño advisory on 10 September 2026. The Pacific ran 1.8 degrees above normal in August.
Which areas are worst affected?
Tigray, eastern Amhara, Afar and eastern Oromia, according to FEWS NET’s 11 September seasonal monitor.
How many people need help?
Crisis-level food insecurity is widespread into January 2027, with 2.45 million people in Tigray needing emergency food assistance.
Does this affect neighbouring countries?
Yes. Kenyan maize production is running about 28% below average nationally and 43% below in the North Rift.
Sources: FEWS NET Ethiopia Food Security Outlook Update (August 2026) and East Africa Seasonal Monitor (11 September 2026), NOAA Climate Prediction Center, World Meteorological Organization, Ethiopian Meteorology Institute.
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