SUDAN · ANALYSIS
Sudan says drones that cut its power and hit a fuel pipeline came from Ethiopia with UAE help. Both countries have rejected such claims before, and the evidence has not been independently checked.
Key Facts
- What is happening Sudan’s army-led government says drones that hit its power and fuel sites were launched from Ethiopia and supplied by the UAE.
- What is unproven Officials showed flight data, satellite images and drone fragments. Reporters could not independently verify them, and Ethiopia and the UAE had not responded.
- Why it matters Strikes on power stations and a fuel pipeline raise the risk of a wider regional crisis.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, prices a Sudan ceasefire by 31 December 2026 at 11.5% (US$119,639 traded; 29 October 2026, 6:27 p.m. ET).
Sudan has been at war for more than three years, and the fight is now moving to its power grid. A new accusation points at two neighbours that Sudan’s army says are helping its enemy.
What Khartoum Is Alleging
At a briefing in Khartoum on Wednesday 28 October 2026, officials from Sudan’s defence, foreign affairs, information and intelligence services accused Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates of enabling drone attacks on Sudanese soil. They said the drones used in recent strikes were launched from Ethiopian territory, including Bahir Dar Airport.
Muawiya Osman Khalid, the Foreign Ministry’s undersecretary, made the accusation against both countries. Defence Minister Hassan Daoud Kabroun said more than 20 countries back the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group fighting Sudan’s army, with funding, drones, logistics and foreign fighters, but named only Ethiopia and the UAE.
The officials presented flight data, satellite imagery and fragments of drones the army says it intercepted. News reports said none of this could be independently verified.
The Strikes Behind the Accusation
On Tuesday 27 October, a drone strike disabled the Markhiyat power station in Omdurman, part of the capital area, and disrupted electricity across it.On Wednesday 28 October, Sudanese officials said strikes hit a power station and fuel storage in El Manaqil, in Gezira State, a farming region south of Khartoum, causing a blackout there.They said fuel storage and a pipeline linked to Bashayer Port, in Red Sea State, were also hit.
In plain English
The Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, are a paramilitary group led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. They have fought Sudan’s army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, since April 2023.
Sudanese officials also said the wider campaign has struck hospitals, mosques and residential areas across several states. We could not verify this.
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What Ethiopia and the UAE Have Said
Ethiopian authorities and the UAE had not responded to the 28 October claims when we published on 29 October. The UAE has previously denied supporting the RSF.
Sudan made similar accusations earlier this year and recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia in May. Ethiopia answered then that the accusations were made at the instigation of external parties.
What Prediction Markets Say
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, was pricing a Sudan civil war ceasefire by 31 December 2026 at 11.5% on 29 October 2026 at 6:27 p.m. ET, with US$119,639 traded. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why It Matters Beyond Sudan
Power cuts stop hospitals, water pumps and phone networks, so strikes on the grid hit civilians first. Attacks on fuel stores also slow transport and food deliveries.
The Red Sea is a major shipping route linking Europe, the Gulf and Asia. We found no report of an effect on international shipping, but any fighting near Bashayer Port is a risk that insurers and shippers watch.
Ethiopia and the UAE are both active in Horn of Africa and Gulf diplomacy, so a formal dispute with Sudan would complicate peace efforts.
What It Means for You
For US investors and shippers, the practical signal is Red Sea risk. Watch for changes in war-risk insurance quotes for ships near Sudan’s coast and for any new statements from Washington.
Treat each side’s claims with care until independent investigators examine the evidence. The market price for a ceasefire suggests traders see no near-term end to the war.
What We Do Not Know
We cannot confirm where the drones were launched or who supplied them. We also do not know how long the power cuts lasted, or how much fuel was lost.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Sudan accusing Ethiopia and the UAE of?
Sudan’s army-led government says drones used in recent strikes were launched from Ethiopian territory, including Bahir Dar Airport, with UAE support. Reports said the evidence could not be independently verified.
Which sites were hit in late October 2026?
The Markhiyat power station near Omdurman on 27 October, then a power station and fuel storage in El Manaqil and a pipeline linked to Bashayer Port on 28 October.
What have Ethiopia and the UAE said?
They had not responded to the 28 October claims when we published on 29 October. The UAE has previously denied supporting the Rapid Support Forces.
Who are the Rapid Support Forces?
They are a paramilitary group led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. They have fought Sudan’s army since April 2023.
Sources: Polymarket; Sudanese officials’ briefing of 28 October 2026 as reported by regional media. Retrieved 29 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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