ETHIOPIA · DROUGHT · FOOD SECURITY
A Red Cross emergency plan counts 250,035 hectares (about 618,000 acres) of Ethiopian cropland damaged by this year’s El Niño drought, with more than 3.5 million people affected.
Key Facts
- —The damage 250,035 hectares (about 618,000 acres) of cropland damaged by the failed June to September rains.
- —The people More than 3.5 million people in 101 hard-hit districts across six regions are affected.
- —Animals and water 28,629 livestock deaths and more than 319 water points dried up, fully or partly.
- —The response CHF 749,973 (about US$909,000) funds help for 50,000 people over six months.
- —Still ahead Crisis-level hunger is expected to last in the worst-hit areas into January 2027.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives 70.5% to a record El Niño, 2.5°C or more (25 October, 5:05 a.m. ET).
More than 250,000 hectares of Ethiopian cropland, about 618,000 acres, have been damaged by this year’s El Niño drought, according to an emergency plan for the Ethiopian Red Cross Society that the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) published on Monday, 12 October 2026. The Reporter, an Addis Ababa newspaper, turned the figure into an Amharic headline on Sunday, 25 October, “ባለፉት አራት ወራት በኤልኒኖ ሳቢያ በተከሰተ ድርቅ ከ250 ሺሕ በላይ ሔክታር ሰብል መጥፋቱ ተገለጸ”, which means “it was announced that more than 250,000 hectares of crops were lost in the past four months to drought caused by El Niño.”
The figure matters outside Ethiopia because US forecasters say the El Niño behind the drought is still strengthening and likely to last into early 2027. Ethiopia is also one of the countries the US State Department named in June when it announced more than US$1 billion in humanitarian awards to UNICEF and the World Food Program.
In Plain English
- Hectare: a land measure of 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres, so 250,035 hectares is roughly 2,500 square kilometres.
- El Niño: a warming of the Pacific Ocean that disturbs weather worldwide, here delaying Ethiopia’s main rains by up to four weeks.
- Kiremt and meher: kiremt is the June to September rainy season, and meher is the harvest it feeds, over 85% of national crop production.
- IFRC emergency fund: quick-release money from the Red Cross federation, here paying for the Ethiopian Red Cross Society’s drought response.
What the Plan Counts
The plan, issued under the IFRC’s Disaster Response Emergency Fund, says the trigger for action was met on Tuesday, 1 September 2026. It records 250,035 hectares of cropland damaged in West Hararghe, North Gondar, Tigray and parts of south-eastern Ethiopia, 28,629 livestock deaths, and more than 319 water points dried up fully or partly.
It says more than 3.5 million people in 101 hard-hit districts across six regions have reported severe drought, and that less than 50% of the average long-cycle crops have been planted in parts of Tigray, Amhara and eastern Oromia. Those areas were already weakened by poor spring belg rains, conflict and economic stress, the plan adds.
In West Hararghe, a zone of Oromia region, the plan’s own assessment lists 316,986 hectares of affected cropland, including 200,683 hectares totally damaged, and finds 221 of 229 community ponds dry. The plan does not explain how that zone figure fits the 250,035-hectare total, so the numbers are best read as assessment snapshots, not a national tally.
The Reporter’s story, bylined to Haymanot Desta, names the IFRC as its source and calls the figure a four-month tally, which fits the June to September rainy season the plan describes. Its first paragraph speaks of crops destroyed, while the plan says damaged in one place and crop failure in another, so this article keeps the plan’s milder word.
“The scale of current needs exceeds existing response capacity, requiring expanded humanitarian resources and coordinated action.”
IFRC emergency plan, 12 October 2026
Why the Rains Failed
The plan blames an El Niño-driven drought that suppressed the June to September kiremt rains, delaying their start by up to four weeks across northern, eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia. It adds that the same areas had already suffered shortages in the spring belg rains, so households had little left to fall back on.
The famine early-warning network FEWS NET, in its update covering September 2026 to January 2027, says seasonal rainfall totalled 50 percent or less of average in the worst-hit areas and puts production losses at more than 40 percent in East and West Hararghe. It expects Crisis-level hunger, the third step on a five-step scale, to persist in South and East Tigray, the Tekeze river lowlands and both Hararghe zones.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday, 8 October that El Niño “continues to strengthen” and that a strong-to-very strong event is likely through January to March 2027. It gave an 83% chance of a historic event, stronger than any since 1950, for October to December, and its next update is due on Thursday, 12 November.
Who Is Responding to the Drought
The plan allocates CHF 749,973 (about US$909,000, at 0.8249 Swiss francs per US dollar on 23 October) for a response that runs until 31 March 2027. It aims to reach 10,000 households, or 50,000 people, in Amhara, Tigray and Oromia, about 1.4% of the 3.57 million people the document counts as affected.
What the Plan Delivers
- Cash: two rounds of grants for 1,880 families, about 9,400 people, the largest budget line at CHF 309,795 (about US$376,000).
- Farming: seeds and fertiliser for 5,000 households and animal fodder for 3,120 households.
- Water and hygiene: repairs to water points, hygiene teaching and water-treatment chemicals for 3,000 households.
- Health: community volunteers to screen about 18,000 children for malnutrition.
The plan says help already under way from the government, the Red Cross movement and other donors remains “geographically and financially insufficient.” It records that the Ethiopian government has requested international assistance, and that its Disaster Risk Management Commission has sent teams to seven regions whose analysis is still under way.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, traders put a 70.5% chance on the 2026-27 El Niño peaking at 2.5°C or more on NOAA’s relative index, and 27% on a peak of 2.25 to 2.5°C (25 October, 5:05 a.m. ET). The market, which settles on NOAA’s own readings through the 2026-27 winter, has traded about US$123,000 in total across all price brackets.
Peaks below 2.25°C together trade at about 1.4%, and the market is a bet on the climate driver, not on Ethiopia’s harvest, aid or politics. FEWS NET expects the October to December rains to improve pasture and water, although local flash floods could limit recovery.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
“Production losses are estimated at more than 40 percent in East and West Hararghe.”
FEWS NET, Ethiopia Key Message Update, September 2026
What It Means for US Readers
The most direct link is aid. On Tuesday, 16 June the US State Department announced more than US$218 million for UNICEF and more than US$800 million for the World Food Program to work in more than 40 countries, naming Ethiopia among them, and on Thursday, 23 July it announced US$70 million for the IFRC.
The announcements give no Ethiopia-specific amount and do not say whether any of that money reaches this drought response. A separate US-funded programme did work in the same three regions: Ambassador Ervin Massinga said at its close-out event in Addis Ababa on Thursday, 6 August that the US government contributed US$462 million through the Resilience Food Security Activity, which reached more than one million recipients of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program in Amhara, Oromia and Tigray.
The second link is the forecast, because NOAA, a US agency, expects this El Niño to last into early 2027 and FEWS NET expects Crisis-level hunger to persist in the worst-hit areas until January. The third is security, since FEWS NET says fighting in northern Ethiopia escalated in late September and is disrupting fuel, markets and transport.
Travellers should know that the three regions the plan targets, Tigray, Amhara and Oromia, are largely on the State Department’s Do Not Travel list under its Level 3 advisory issued on Thursday, 27 August. The Rio Times explains the northern war in its guide to why Tigray is at war again, linked below.
What to Watch
- Thursday, 12 November: NOAA’s next El Niño update.
- After 31 October: FEWS NET’s next Ethiopia analysis, which will cover the effects of the northern fighting.
- October to December: the deyr and hageya rains, expected to improve pasture but able to bring flash floods.
- 31 March 2027: the planned end of the Red Cross operation.
What Is Not Known
The Rio Times found no government figure for crop damage across the whole country, and the plan says the disaster commission’s analysis in seven regions is still under way. The plan also admits that its assessment could not reach all affected regions because of limited funding, poor access to conflict areas and limited checking of the data by authorities.
It is not clear how the 250,035-hectare figure relates to the 316,986 affected hectares in West Hararghe alone, or how much of the damaged area is a total loss. No national harvest estimate is public in the documents reviewed, although FEWS NET expects the meher harvest to be below average.
Nor do the documents say which donors fund the CHF 749,973 allocation, or whether US money is part of it. Forecasters also cannot yet say how the October to December rains will behave, and whether new fighting in the north will block aid deliveries is unknown.
Connected Coverage
- Why Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Is at War Again in 2026 (explainer)
- Horn of Africa 2026: Why It Matters and Who Backs Whom (explainer)
- What to Do in Addis Ababa in October 2026 (city guide)
- Ethiopia Harvest May Fall 30% as Kiremt Rains Fail (news, 16 September)
- Ethiopia Faces Higher Flood Risk as a Very Strong El Niño Peaks in 2026 (news, 27 September)
Frequently Asked Questions
How much farmland has the drought damaged in Ethiopia?
A Red Cross emergency plan counts 250,035 hectares, about 618,000 acres, of cropland damaged in West Hararghe, North Gondar, Tigray and parts of the south-east. It is an assessment figure, not a national government tally.
Who produced the 250,000-hectare figure?
The Ethiopian Red Cross Society and its partners carried out the assessments, and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies published the plan on 12 October 2026. The Reporter, an Addis Ababa newspaper, carried the figure in Amharic on 25 October.
How many people does the drought affect?
The plan counts 3,574,569 people affected across 101 districts in six regions. The Red Cross response targets 50,000 of them over six months.
Why is Ethiopia in drought this year?
The plan blames El Niño, which delayed the June to September rains by up to four weeks. NOAA says the El Niño is still strengthening and a strong-to-very strong event is likely into early 2027.
Does the United States help with Ethiopia’s drought?
The State Department named Ethiopia among the countries covered by its June 2026 awards to UNICEF and the World Food Program. The sources reviewed give no Ethiopia-specific US figure for this drought.
Is it safe for Americans to travel to the affected areas?
The State Department’s Level 3 advisory, issued on 27 August 2026, says to reconsider travel to Ethiopia. It lists Tigray, Amhara and most of Oromia as Do Not Travel areas.
Sources: IFRC, DREF Operation Ethiopia Drought 2026 (MDRET042), published 12 October 2026, IFRC GO appeal record MDRET042, The Reporter (Amharic), 25 October 2026, FEWS NET, Ethiopia Key Message Update, September 2026 to January 2027, FEWS NET, Ethiopia Food Security Outlook Update, August 2026 to January 2027, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 October 2026, Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission, Moisture Stress Early Warning Alert for the 2026 kiremt rains, US State Department, media note of 16 June 2026, US State Department, media note of 23 July 2026, US State Department, Ethiopia travel advisory, 27 August 2026, US Embassy Addis Ababa, Ambassador Massinga’s remarks at the RFSA close-out event, delivered 6 August 2026. Prediction-market prices: Polymarket, 25 October, 5:05 a.m. ET. Swiss franc conversion: newsroom market data, 23 October 2026 close (0.8249 francs per US dollar). All pages retrieved 25 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Horn of Africa and the Red Sea
- Horn of Africa 2026: Why It Matters and Who Backs Whom
- Ethiopia’s Neighbors Explained, Ports, Eritrea, Somalia
- Eritrea Explained 2026, a Red Sea Country Guide
- Somalia Explained: Al-Shabaab, Somaliland, the Ports and the Fight Over a 2026 Vote