Datafolha Poll Has Flávio 51%, Lula 49%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 24 October, about 5:36 p.m. ET · Source: Datafolha
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened On Saturday 24 October, the Datafolha polling institute released its final runoff survey, ordered by Folha de S.Paulo and Globo.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51% of valid votes and President Lula 49%; in raw totals it is 48% to 47%.
- Margin of error 2 points, from 4,050 interviews on 23–24 October (TSE registration BR-09540/2026).
- The change Datafolha’s previous poll, on 22 October, had Flávio at about 50.5% and Lula at about 49.5%.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Kalshi traders give Flávio a 80% chance of winning by at least 1 point and Lula 13% (24 October, 8:16 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 83% (Lula: 17% and 18%), as of 24 October, 8:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, by 51% to 49% of valid votes in the final Datafolha poll before the Brazil election 2026 runoff. Datafolha released it at about 5:36 p.m. ET on Saturday 24 October, and the pollster calls it a technical tie within the margin of error.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every runoff survey so readers can compare the pollsters.
What the Final Datafolha Poll Found
Datafolha interviewed 4,050 voters aged 16 or older across Brazil on 23 and 24 October, Gazeta do Povo reported. Folha de S.Paulo and Globo ordered the survey, which has a 2-point margin of error at a 95% confidence level, CNN Brasil reported.
Flávio has 51% of valid votes and Lula 49%, according to Gazeta do Povo. In raw totals Flávio has 48%, Lula 47%, 3% would vote blank or void and 2% are undecided, Metrópoles reported. The survey is registered with the TSE, Brazil’s electoral court, under number BR-09540/2026.
How It Compares With Earlier Datafolha Polls
Datafolha’s previous poll, released on Thursday 22 October, put Flávio at 50.54% and Lula at 49.46% of valid votes, Metrópoles reported. That survey was in the field on 20–22 October and carries TSE registration BR-09709/2026.
Our report on that survey is here: Datafolha runoff poll, Flávio 50%, Lula 50%. Flávio’s share edged up by less than a point in two days, a move well inside the margin of error.
The poll Datafolha released on 15 October also had Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49%, GZH reported. The final survey therefore matches that reading, and the candidates stayed within two points of each other throughout.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean sharp price swings once results arrive on Sunday evening. Polling stations close at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET), and the electoral court publishes results on its own site.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A gap inside the margin of error means neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro an 80% chance of winning the 25 October runoff by at least 1 point and Lula 13% (24 October, 8:16 p.m. ET).
Kalshi’s price is a bet, not a poll, and it can move within minutes of new surveys. See our Brazil election odds page for the live figures.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · Lula 16.5% (US$196 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 83% · Lula 18%
As of 24 October, 8:20 pm ET (01:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
No poll can say how many voters will abstain on Sunday. Every survey measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
We do not yet know how Datafolha’s undecided voters, 2% of the sample, will vote or whether they will turn out. The official count by the electoral court is the only result that decides the race.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s final Datafolha runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 51% to 49% of valid votes in the Datafolha poll released on Saturday 24 October. Datafolha calls it a technical tie within the margin of error.
What is the margin of error in the Datafolha poll?
It is 2 percentage points either way at a 95% confidence level, from 4,050 interviews on 23 and 24 October. The survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-09540/2026.
How did Datafolha’s final poll change from the last one?
Flávio rose from about 50.5% to 51% of valid votes and Lula slipped from about 49.5% to 49%. The change is inside the margin of error.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, the day after this poll was published. Polling stations close at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET).
What are valid votes in a Brazilian poll?
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, matching how the electoral court reports results. Datafolha uses them to show the split among voters who pick a name.
Sources: Gazeta do Povo, 24 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 24 October 2026; Metrópoles, 24 October 2026; SP Agora, 24 October 2026; Metrópoles, 22 October 2026; GZH, 15 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief