Copper Holds Elevated Levels While Market Adjusts to Policy Shocks

Copper prices remained elevated on July 11, 2025, as official market data and technical indicators confirmed the impact of recent U.S. tariff policy and persistent supply constraints.

The latest 4-hour and daily charts from TradingView show copper trading near $5.57 per pound, with price action reflecting consolidation after an earlier surge. Market participants observed these developments closely, noting the influence of both policy and fundamentals.

The U.S. government’s decision to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, set to take effect in August, has significantly altered the market landscape. Traders moved quickly to secure inventory before the new tariffs, driving copper futures to record highs earlier in the week.

The price premium between U.S. COMEX and the London Metal Exchange widened, highlighting uncertainty about the long-term effects of the tariffs and the scramble for physical supply.

Technical analysis of the 4-hour chart reveals a sharp breakout followed by a period of sideways movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled from overbought levels, now hovering around 62, indicating a moderation in bullish momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows a decline in buying pressure, while the price remains above key moving averages, including the 20-period and 50-period lines.

Bollinger Bands have contracted after the initial volatility spike, suggesting that traders now await clearer direction. On the daily chart, copper maintains its uptrend, with the price holding above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.

Copper Maintains Positive Momentum Amid Tight Supply

The RSI remains strong but below extreme levels, while the MACD line stays above the signal line, confirming ongoing positive momentum. Volume surged during the initial tariff-driven rally but has since moderated, pointing to a market that is digesting recent gains.

Fundamental factors continue to support copper’s strength. Official data confirms that global mine output remains tight, with inventories on major exchanges such as the LME showing only modest increases.

Chinese stockpiles remain low, and downstream demand in Asia has stayed cautious but steady. U.S. manufacturers face higher input costs, which could eventually dampen demand if prices remain elevated.

ETF flows reflect investor positioning. The WIRE ETF in Australia reported strong inflows during the second quarter, and the COPX ETF tracking copper miners has gained 21% year-to-date.

These figures underscore the market’s expectation of continued tightness and the potential for further volatility as the tariff deadline approaches. Market participants now focus on key support at $5.52 and resistance near $5.62 to $5.92.

The technical setup suggests the market could consolidate further or correct if support fails, while fundamentals point to ongoing supply challenges.

Copper’s story today centers on policy-driven disruption, tight supply, and cautious optimism as traders and manufacturers adapt to a rapidly changing environment.

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