Oil Markets Hold Steady Amid Supply Pressure and Weak Demand

Brent and WTI crude prices closed the last session with minor changes, reflecting the market’s struggle to find direction as traders absorbed a mix of bearish fundamentals and technical signals.

Official trading data shows Brent settled near $66.80 per barrel and WTI at $64.24, both benchmarks hovering close to multi-month lows. The charts from July 11, 2025, confirm that neither contract managed a decisive move.

Price action remained constrained by persistent uncertainty. Recent government data revealed a second consecutive weekly build in U.S. crude inventories, which now stand at a ten-month high.

This inventory growth signals that supply continues to outpace demand, especially with U.S. production holding near record levels. OPEC+ members have not announced any new cuts, and Russian exports remain steady despite sanctions.

These facts confirm a well-supplied market, which limits the potential for price rallies. Macroeconomic headwinds also weigh on sentiment.

The United States imposed new tariffs on Canadian oil imports, effective August 1, and signaled tariffs on other major trade partners. These measures have raised concerns about slower global growth and weaker oil demand.

Chinese demand remains subdued, with official import data showing no significant rebound. Indian consumption has not picked up as expected, and European refinery margins remain under pressure.

Technical analysis of the daily and four-hour charts highlights the market’s indecision. Both Brent and WTI trade below key moving averages, with the 50, 100, and 200-day lines acting as resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Brent stands at 48 on the daily chart, while WTI’s RSI reads 48.7, both indicating neutral to weak momentum.

MACD indicators on both contracts show bearish crossovers, with the histogram in negative territory, confirming the lack of upward momentum. Bollinger Bands remain tight, signaling low volatility and a lack of conviction among traders.

Support levels for Brent sit near $65.93, while resistance appears at $68.85. WTI finds support at $63.15 and resistance at $66.32. Price action has respected these levels, with no clear breakout or breakdown.

Trading volumes spiked during the previous session’s selloff but have since normalized, suggesting that speculative activity has cooled. ETF flows reflect the cautious mood.

The U.S. Oil Fund (USO) saw mixed inflows and outflows, with investors hesitant to commit amid volatile conditions. No significant shift in speculative positioning has occurred, based on official exchange data.

The market narrative remains unchanged: ample supply, weak demand, and little sign of a policy shift from major producers. Technical signals reinforce the fundamental picture, with both daily and intraday charts showing no clear trend reversal.

Traders continue to watch for any surprise disruptions or policy announcements, but for now, oil prices remain locked in a narrow range, reflecting a market that sees more risk than opportunity.

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