Copper Prices Edge Lower as Market Eyes Tariffs and Supply Signals

Copper prices held near $5.03 per pound in early trading on July 8, 2025, according to official market data. The London Metal Exchange (LME) and other global hubs reported a third consecutive day of price declines.

The market is reflecting caution ahead of a key United States tariff decision expected this week. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) mirrored this sentiment, closing at 79,390 yuan per metric ton after a session marked by subdued trading volumes and limited volatility.

Traders observed that inventories at LME warehouses fell to 97,400 metric tons, a level that signals ongoing tightness but not the acute shortages seen earlier this year.

Recent arrivals of Russian copper have eased some immediate supply concerns, yet the market remains wary of further disruptions. The global mine supply is projected to rise by 2.3% in 2025, with new projects in Africa, Mongolia, and Russia contributing.

However, these additions have not yet shifted the balance enough to offset persistent demand from electrification and infrastructure projects. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows copper prices consolidating above the $4.97 support level.

The Simple Moving Averages (50, 100, and 200 periods) indicate that the medium-term uptrend remains intact, but the slope has flattened, reflecting weaker momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 60, suggesting neutral to slightly bullish conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has flattened, pointing to a loss of upward momentum.

Bollinger Bands have narrowed, indicating reduced volatility after recent swings. On the four-hour chart, the technical picture shifts. Prices have trended downward for three sessions, with the RSI approaching 40, a level close to oversold territory.

The MACD histogram has turned negative, and the signal line continues to diverge downward. These factors suggest short-term selling pressure, even as the broader trend remains constructive.

Support at $5.00 has held so far, but resistance near $5.22 has capped any rebound attempts. Volumes on major exchanges have remained steady, with no significant inflows or outflows reported in copper-focused exchange-traded funds.

Market participants continue to monitor ETF activity as a gauge of institutional sentiment, but recent data show a wait-and-see approach rather than aggressive positioning.

Macroeconomic factors have weighed on sentiment. The market remains sensitive to the outcome of the upcoming US tariff announcement, which could alter trade flows and impact global demand.

Additionally, supply chain disruptions and logistical challenges persist, though not at crisis levels. Traders have adopted a cautious stance, reducing exposure and awaiting clearer signals from both policy and fundamentals.

Copper’s short-term outlook remains uncertain. Technical indicators point to consolidation with a risk of further downside if support levels break.

However, supply constraints and robust demand for electrification projects continue to provide a floor under prices. The market will likely remain volatile as participants await decisive policy and supply developments.

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