Published Wednesday 11 November 2026 · Source: presidential ordinance, Parliament, Constitutional Court, Polymarket
Key Facts
- Law: President Félix Tshisekedi signed the Democratic Republic of Congo’s new referendum law, number 26/045, on Monday 9 November.
- Why it matters: The law lets voters decide on a new constitution, and the opposition fears a third term.
- Votes: The lower house passed it 346 to 0 on 23 October; the Senate passed it 78 to 0 on 31 October.
- Not known: No referendum has been called, and Tshisekedi has not said he wants a third term.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, puts the chance that Tshisekedi leaves office by 31 December at 4.9% (11 November, 2:46 a.m. ET).
The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Félix Tshisekedi, has signed a law that makes it much easier to put a new constitution to a national vote. He signed it on Monday 9 November, and it took effect the same day.
It matters far beyond Kinshasa because DR Congo is the world’s largest cobalt producer, a metal that goes into the batteries of electric cars and phones. Opposition parties say the law is a step towards letting Tshisekedi stay in power after his second and last term ends in 2028.
In Plain English: Who Is Who
Tshisekedi has been president since January 2019 and was re-elected in December 2023. The current constitution, written in 2006, limits a president to two five-year terms.
The Constitutional Court is the country’s highest court on constitutional questions. The Union Sacrée (Sacred Union) is the coalition of parties that backs the president.
What the New Law Says
The law replaces a 2005 text that was written only to approve the current constitution. It sets out how any referendum is called, campaigned, voted on and challenged in court, in about fifty articles.
A referendum can be started by the president, by the government, by half of the members of each chamber of Parliament, or by a petition from citizens. Voting is called a civic duty for every registered citizen aged 18 or over.
The law’s statement of reasons leans on Article 5 of the constitution, which says the people hold sovereignty and may use it by referendum. It cites two Constitutional Court rulings, from 15 January 2021 and 28 July 2026, to argue that the state may adopt a new constitution or change any existing provision by referendum “in case of absolute necessity”.
Critics point out that this wording names no exceptions. Article 220 of the current constitution forbids any revision that touches the number or length of presidential terms.
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How the Bill Reached the President
Parliament first passed the bill in June, and the Constitutional Court declared it compatible with the constitution on 28 July, subject to reservations on 13 articles. Parliament then reworked the text to meet the court’s reservations before it went to the president.
The National Assembly (the lower house) approved the revised text on Friday 23 October by 346 votes to none with one abstention, and the Senate followed on Saturday 31 October by 78 votes to none. Opposition lawmakers boycotted the debates, and Christian Mwando, who leads the opposition group Ensemble pour la République in the Assembly, called the vote a forced passage and warned that it amounted to a “brutal closing of the door to dialogue”.
The presidential ordinance (the formal decree) signing the law was read out on state television on Tuesday 10 November. Supporters call the law a way to deepen democracy by returning power to the people.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, priced the chance that Tshisekedi is “out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026” at 4.9% (11 November, 2:46 a.m. ET), with about US$21,600 traded. That market asks about the end of this year, not about the referendum or 2028, so it says only that traders see little risk of an early exit.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US readers, the main link is minerals: a change of rules in Kinshasa can affect cobalt and copper supply chains that American carmakers and battery makers rely on. Investors in mining firms working in DR Congo should watch whether political tension spills into the mining provinces.
Travellers should expect possible opposition rallies in Kinshasa and should check the US State Department’s travel advice before going. The east of the country remains a war zone, where the M23 rebel group, which UN experts say Rwanda backs and Rwanda denies, is fighting government forces.
What Is Not Known
No date or question for any referendum has been announced, and nobody has said which articles of the constitution would be changed. Tshisekedi has not declared that he will seek a third term, and the government has not said the law is meant for that purpose.
We also do not know whether the opposition will challenge the law in court or in the streets. Any such challenge would be the next test for the law.
Read our earlier report on the court ruling on the referendum and our latest report on Congo’s peace appeal to Russia. See all our DR Congo coverage for more.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Tshisekedi sign?
He signed law number 26/045 on Monday 9 November. It sets the rules for organising referendums in DR Congo and took effect immediately.
Does the law allow a third term for Tshisekedi?
The law does not mention a third term. Opponents say it could be used to change the constitution, whose Article 220 now bars changes to presidential term limits.
Has a referendum been called?
No. No date or question has been announced, according to the information available on 11 November.
Who can start a referendum?
The president, the government, half of the members of each chamber of Parliament, or citizens by petition. Voters then answer yes or no.
Sources: Law no. 26/045 of 9 November 2026 on the organisation of the referendum, as read on state television on 10 November 2026; Constitutional Court of DR Congo rulings of 15 January 2021 and 28 July 2026; National Assembly vote of 23 October 2026 and Senate vote of 31 October 2026; Polymarket market on Tshisekedi leaving office, 11 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error