Colombian Peso Firms As Traders Eye BanRep; Stocks Edge Higher With Cement And Food Names Leading

The Colombian peso traded near 3,924 per dollar in early dealings Tuesday, modestly firmer alongside a softer U.S. currency as shutdown talk weighed on the greenback.

The U.S. Dollar Index hovered around 97.9 in morning trade, little changed from Monday’s pullback. Colombia’s official TRM for settlement today is 3,901.29.

Monday’s local session set that TRM after USD/COP swung between roughly 3,886 and 3,922; at Tuesday’s open, dealers again flagged “lateral” price action after an extended oversold patch, according to traders.

With Banco de la República widely expected to keep its policy rate at 9.25%—unchanged since mid-year—carry support remains a tailwind for COP into quarter-end.

On equities, the MSCI COLCAP rose 0.61% Monday to 1,874.87 on broadly supportive flows, leaving the index just under recent highs.

Technicals remain constructive: the daily chart shows price above short-term averages, with momentum positive but flattening near resistance around 1,873–1,885; on 4-hour charts, dips toward the 1,854 zone continue to draw buyers.

Top winners and losers (Monday’s close, BVC data):

Winners: Cementos Argos Pref +8.89%; Nutresa +8.62%; ISA +3.80%; Almacenes Éxito +2.06%; Cementos Argos +1.90%.

Losers: Ecopetrol −2.44%; Conconcreto −1.38%; Celsia −1.26%; Davivienda Pref −0.98%; Corficolombiana −0.46%.

What’s driving the tape

• FX: The dollar’s cautious tone on U.S. shutdown risk and potential data release delays has taken some upward pressure off EM currencies; a steady-to-softer DXY keeps USD/COP capped below 3,950 unless U.S. headlines turn.
• Rates: BanRep has repeatedly held at 9.25% in recent meetings; sell-side previews still point to a hold, with most economists pushing meaningful easing bets into 2026. A surprise cut would likely weaken COP but buoy rate-sensitives on the COLCAP.
• Commodities: Oil’s rangebound tone offers a mixed read for Ecopetrol, consistent with the stock’s underperformance Monday.

Trader color

“The dollar opened with lateral dynamics and signs of an extended oversold move,” one local desk noted, describing early price discovery around 3,895 on Monday—still the microstructure narrative guiding today’s open.

Outlook

Near-term, COP direction hinges on DXY headlines and BanRep guidance. A sustained break above 3,950–3,985 would signal a momentum turn in favor of the dollar; otherwise, 3,90xx remains the gravity point.

For equities, a daily close above ~1,885 would put fresh highs in play; until then, buy-on-dips tactics around 1,854 dominate.

Data notes: USD/COP spot quotes are delayed up to 15 minutes; TRM is the official settlement rate for today published by the financial supervisor.

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