Argentina’s Peso Firms Slightly as Blue-Market Gap Narrows; Equities Edge Higher

Buenos Aires opened with a steadier tone on Tuesday as the wholesale peso traded near 1,356 per dollar and the official retail board hovered around 1,380/1,330.

The blue (parallel) dollar cooled to roughly 1,430/1,410, trimming the premium over the official rate to the mid-single digits from the record spikes seen earlier this month.

The narrower gap suggests immediate FX stress has eased—more a function of intervention and calmer global dollar dynamics than a durable fix to Argentina’s reserve constraints.

The U.S. Dollar Index was slightly softer in early trade, removing a bit of external pressure. Stocks were flat to modestly positive after Monday’s mixed session: the S&P Merval sat around 1,793,000 (+0.1%).

The overnight narrative was defined by weak sovereign bonds, firmer cash dollar references, and a market still digesting recent capital-control adjustments and political crosswinds.

Winners (prior session, local/ADRs)

• Aluar (aluminum)
• IRSA (real estate)
• Ternium (steel)
• Cresud (agribusiness/land)
• BBVA Argentina (banking)

Losers (prior session, local/ADRs)

• Metrogas (utilities)
• Central Puerto (power generation)
• YPF (energy)
• Edenor (utilities)
• Pampa Energía (energy)

Why it moved

A softer DXY and a visibly narrower blue-official spread underpinned the peso and tempered equity volatility.

Traders also pointed to recent heavy-handed support around the top of the official band that discouraged one-way FX bets, while global risk tone remained cautious ahead of U.S. fiscal headlines and data releases. Local bonds lagged as investors continued to pay up for hard-currency hedges, keeping risk premia elevated.

What the charts say

On USD/ARS, the daily setup shows a retreat from last week’s 1,382 high toward the rising trendline, with momentum still negative but stabilizing; on 4-hour frames, the pair is basing above 1,340 with first resistance 1,362–1,365 and supports at 1,340 and 1,318–1,325.

For equities, the Merval’s daily momentum remains subdued (low-40s RSI) but intraday gauges have started to curl up; a break above 1.82–1.85 million would mark improving breadth, while a slip below 1.77–1.78 million risks another leg down.

Big picture

The blue-market premium’s pullback signals short-term relief and better liquidity, but without fresh external funding and clearer policy anchors, underlying pressures persist.

Today’s path will hinge on whether the peso can hold the mid-1,300s, DXY stays benign, and Buenos Aires flows push the Merval through nearby resistance.

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