Mexico’s Peso Holds Firm As IPC Hits Record; Dollar Softens On U.S. Shutdown Jitters

The Mexican peso steadied early Tuesday, with USD/MXN trading around 18.35–18.39 after a flat overnight session, mirroring Monday’s close near 18.36.

The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near 97.9, softening on worries a U.S. government shutdown could delay key data and dent the greenback’s recent rebound.

Equities told a buoyant story: Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC rose 0.49% to a record 62,610.12 on Monday, extending a September rally as global risk appetite improved.

Breadth was positive, with more advancers than decliners. Gains were led by heavyweights and defensives even as the peso held stable.

Drivers. Locally, Banxico’s 25 bp cut to 7.50%—paired with stickier core inflation—keeps the policy stance in “cautious easing,” preserving a still-attractive rate differential for the peso but narrowing it at the margin.

Externally, the dollar’s dip reflected shutdown risk and a wait-and-see stance ahead of U.S. payrolls, with markets also pricing in further Federal Reserve easing by year-end.

What moved overnight. Asia FX was mixed while the Australian dollar firmed after the RBA held rates with a watchful tone. The softer dollar helped high-beta peers but left USD/MXN stuck in a tight 18.30–18.40 box.

Stock market winners and losers (Monday close). The session’s reported leaders on the IPC were:

Winners: Grupo México +6.29% (to MXN 157.21), Orbia +1.93%, Kimberly-Clark de México +1.81%.

Losers: ASUR −4.20%, Grupo Carso −3.10%, Becle (Cuervo) −2.95%.

FX technicals. On the daily chart, USD/MXN remains capped around 18.38–18.40 with support near 18.30; daily MACD is flat to slightly negative and RSI below mid-line—modestly bearish USD unless 18.42/18.45 breaks.

The 4-hour chart shows a stalled bounce into clustered averages; a 4h close above ~18.42 opens 18.50/18.55, while a slip under ~18.29 risks 18.18–18.20.

Why it went this way. The record IPC close paired with a steady peso reflects a risk-on tone fueled by global equities and local index leaders (notably Grupo México), while FX stayed range-bound as traders balanced softer DXY against Banxico’s measured easing and Mexico’s firm—if slowing—disinflation path.

If the Dollar Index rebounds above ~98.2 on any shutdown reprieve or strong U.S. data, peso strength could fade; conversely, a prolonged U.S. data blackout would likely keep the greenback on the back foot and favor tests toward 18.20 in USD/MXN.