Chile’s IPSA Stalls as Copper Surges, Market Rotates Toward Defensives

Chile’s S&P IPSA index ended June 25, 2025, at 8,140.84, down 0.09%, with the IGPA matching the decline. Trading volumes remained moderate, and the index moved in a tight range.

The Chilean peso held steady. The session’s defining feature was a pause in equities, despite a sharp rally in copper prices. Copper prices have risen for three consecutive sessions.

On June 25, COMEX copper closed at $4.9130 per pound, up $0.0460 from the previous day. LME spot copper settled at $9,810 per ton, up from $9,738 a week earlier.

This surge comes as global inventories hit historic lows, with LME stocks down 62% year-on-year and spot premiums over futures at record levels. Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, recently raised its price forecast, citing persistent supply disruptions and robust demand.

Despite copper’s strength, Chilean mining stocks failed to rally. The market instead rotated toward consumer and defensive sectors. This divergence reflects investor caution about the sustainability of the copper rally, given ongoing supply chain risks and volatile global demand.

The mining sector ranked among the day’s top losers, while consumer and retail shares led gains, supported by strong domestic retail sales.

Technical analysis of the IPSA daily chart shows the index holding just above its 20- and 50-day simple moving averages, with support at 8,140 and resistance at 8,153 and 8,170.

Bollinger Bands have tightened, indicating reduced volatility and a consolidation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 49.35, reflecting neutral momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, showing waning bullish momentum. The Ichimoku Cloud provides additional support just below current levels.

The 4-hour chart confirms this indecision. The IPSA tested support at 8,140 and bounced slightly, but the MACD line, though turning up, remains below zero. The RSI at 49.56 reinforces the neutral stance, and price action remains capped by the upper Bollinger Band.

These technicals suggest consolidation, with neither buyers nor sellers in control. Compared to global peers, Chile’s market lagged. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.26%, while US indices rose over 1%.

European markets traded mixed. ETF flows and trading volumes in Chile showed no significant changes, signaling that institutional investors remain cautious.

Top winners for the session included major consumer and retail stocks, which outperformed on strong sales data. Mining and export-oriented companies were the top losers, unable to capitalize on copper’s rally due to investor skepticism about sector earnings and volatility.

The IPSA’s resilience above support will be key for the next move. Technicals show a balanced risk profile, with the market awaiting a decisive catalyst.

Investors remain wary, rotating into defensives despite copper’s surge, and the coming sessions will test whether this caution persists or gives way to renewed risk appetite.

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