Argentina’s MERVAL Slides as Technical Pressures Deepen, Diverging from Global Peers

Argentina’s S&P MERVAL index closed at 2,024,393 on June 25, 2025, falling 1.95% from the previous session, according to official exchange data.

This decline extended the index’s year-to-date loss to 6.12%, a stark contrast to the positive momentum seen in major global markets.

Over the past 24 hours, the local market’s weakness stood out as U.S. and European indices rallied, highlighting Argentina’s unique set of challenges. The market’s slide occurred despite a backdrop of economic stabilization.

Official data show Argentina’s inflation rate slowed to 2.8% in April, and GDP growth forecasts remain robust at 5.5% for 2025, driven by recovering consumption and investment.

Fiscal and monetary discipline have contributed to this disinflation, but uncertainty around the pace of reforms and upcoming midterm elections continues to weigh on sentiment.

Technical analysis of the MERVAL’s daily and 4-hour charts reveals persistent downward pressure. The index trades well below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, signaling a sustained bearish trend.

MERVAL Index Struggles Amid Oversold Conditions

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both timeframes hovers in the mid-30s, indicating the market remains in oversold territory but has not yet signaled a clear reversal.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows negative momentum, with the MACD line below the signal line and no evident bullish crossover.

Bollinger Bands on the charts show the index pressing against the lower band, reflecting heightened volatility and a lack of buying interest. Volume data confirm the lack of conviction among buyers, with no significant spikes to suggest accumulation or a reversal attempt.

The market’s inability to hold above key support levels, particularly the 2,050,000 zone, exposes it to further downside risk. Resistance remains firm near 2,100,000, with multiple failed attempts to reclaim this level over recent sessions.

Sector performance over the last week underscores the broad-based nature of the decline. Healthcare stocks led losses with an 8.1% drop, followed by industrials at 5.96% and telecom at 4.98%.

Materials and utilities also posted significant declines. On the positive side, Transportadora de Gas del Sur rose 3.4%, Cresud gained 3.2%, and Rigolleau advanced 3.3%, bucking the broader downtrend.

Compared to regional peers, the MERVAL’s underperformance is notable. While all major Latin American markets posted gains in the same period, Argentina’s benchmark remains pressured by domestic policy uncertainty and capital controls.

The market’s price-to-earnings ratio, at 12.49, sits within its historical range but fails to attract sustained inflows given the current risk environment.

The MERVAL’s technical and fundamental backdrop points to continued caution. Until market participants see clear progress on reforms and stabilization, Argentine equities will likely lag behind their global and regional counterparts.