CHILE · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- The country Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, and its economy swings with mining output and global demand for the metal.
- Why it matters A third quarter below the year before would show the mining slump pulling down the whole economy, a risk for US investors in Chilean stocks and bonds.
- Why now The central bank publishes the September activity index on Monday 2 November 2026, and economists have revised their estimates after Friday’s statistics office reports.
- What happened Economists expect the index to land between a 0.3% fall and a 0.5% rise from a year earlier, after drops of 1.5% in July and 1.0% in August.
- What it means for you For US holders of Chile funds, a weak quarter confirms the dependence on copper, and the release may move the peso and local stocks on Monday.
- Still open Whether September beats the low end of forecasts and whether the third quarter ends in contraction.
- Power Index Chile ranks 3rd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 63.6 points (October 2026 edition).
In Plain English
The Imacec is the Monthly Index of Economic Activity of the Banco Central de Chile, an early gauge of growth that arrives before the quarterly national accounts. INE is the Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas, the government agency that counts output, jobs and prices.
Non-mining activity is the part of the economy outside copper and other mines, mostly services, trade and manufacturing. A yearly contraction means output is lower than in the same period a year earlier.
The central bank of Chile is due to publish its September activity index on Monday 2 November 2026, and economists expect a result between a 0.3% fall and a 0.5% rise from a year earlier, which some say would still leave the third quarter in contraction. The index, known as the Imacec, fell 1.0% in August and 1.5% in July, according to the Banco Central de Chile.
For US investors in Chilean stocks and funds, the release matters because copper mining is pulling the economy down even as shops and factories recover, as Friday’s statistics-office reports showed. The central bank lists the full third-quarter national accounts for 18 November 2026.
What Economists Expect on Monday
Diario Financiero reported on Friday 30 October that the market sees the September index ranging from a 0.3% fall to a 0.5% rise from September 2025. Economists at Coopeuch, the UDP economic research center and the investment firm Bice each expect growth of about 0.5%, with Coopeuch citing services as the driver.
Itaú and Gemines both expect a fall of 0.2%, and Santander expects a slight contraction of about 0.3%, according to La Tercera. EuroAmerica raised its estimate from 0% to 0.4% after the Friday data, BCI kept its forecast of 0.3% growth, and Gemines lifted its own from a fall of 1.4% to a fall of 0.2%.
Non-mining activity is expected to grow between 1.5% and 2.0%, according to Santander, and 1.6%, according to Itaú, while mining keeps falling. Itaú chief economist Andrés Pérez said activity data have been very noisy lately in the context of the El Niño climate shock.
Why Mining Is the Drag
The statistics office INE said on Friday that mining production fell 8.7% in September from a year earlier, subtracting 3.7 percentage points from industrial output. INE linked the fall to a temporary suspension at one large company and to lower ore grades at several mines, without naming the company.
Industrial production as a whole fell 2.7%, while manufacturing grew 2.0%, retail activity rose 4.4% and the wider commerce index gained 2.7%, according to INE. The Banco Central reported that in the August reading, mining output fell 17.4% while the non-mining index grew 1.4%.
In July the index fell 1.5% and non-mining activity fell 0.3%, the central bank said, and its second-quarter national accounts showed output down 0.2% from a year earlier with no change from the first quarter. The bank said the second-quarter contraction was explained largely by mining.
The Third Quarter Arithmetic
Coopeuch estimates that a 0.5% rise in September would still leave the third quarter 0.7% lower than a year earlier, and it keeps a 2026 growth forecast of 0.2% with a downward bias. The UDP research center said a 0.5% September would not avoid a fall in third-quarter output, which it called the third yearly contraction in a row, and it expects the year to close near 0%.
Coopeuch warned that adverse El Niño weather will remain present for the rest of 2026 and could keep affecting activity. A reading at the top of the range would not change the third-quarter outcome, since July and August are already known.
What Chilean Stocks Did in October
Chile’s MSCI IPSA stock index fell 2.8% on Friday 30 October to 10,254.15 points and lost 6.5% in October, or 8.2% measured in dollars, its deepest monthly loss since October 2023, according to Diario Financiero. The same report said the Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, its worst month since March 2025.
Gonzalo Trejos, head of strategy at the brokerage Nevasa, told Diario Financiero that funds that had bet on Latin America are cutting positions and that copper has also weakened on doubts about artificial intelligence demand. He added that Chile has no technology companies but is still hit by the news from Brazil.
What It Means for You
For US investors in Chile through funds or US-listed Chilean companies, the Monday release is a gauge of how far the copper slump has spread into the domestic economy. A reading near the top of the forecast range would suggest that non-mining activity, which Santander and Itaú see growing, is carrying the economy.
For US companies selling consumer goods or services in Chile, INE data show retail activity up 4.4% and online retail sales up 20.2% at current prices in September, a pocket of strength inside a flat economy. Wholesale sales of machinery, equipment and materials rose 3.5%, according to INE, a signal for suppliers of industrial goods, although wholesale trade as a whole grew only 0.5% as fuel wholesaling fell 18.9%.
What Is Not Known
The September figure itself is unknown until the central bank publishes it on Monday, and forecasters disagree on whether it will be negative or positive. INE has not named the company whose temporary suspension cut mining output or said how long it lasts.
It is unclear how strongly El Niño weather and weak mining will affect the final months of 2026, since economists describe recent data as noisy. The central bank’s third-quarter national accounts due on 18 November will show whether the quarter ended in contraction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Chile Imacec?
The Imacec is the monthly index of economic activity published by the Banco Central de Chile, an early gauge of growth before quarterly GDP. The September reading is due on Monday 2 November 2026.
What do economists expect for Chile’s September Imacec?
Forecasts range from a 0.3% fall to a 0.5% rise from a year earlier, according to Diario Financiero. Economists quoted by La Tercera see non-mining activity growing about 1.5% to 2.0%.
Why is Chile’s economy shrinking?
The Banco Central said mining explained most of the second-quarter contraction, and INE linked September’s 8.7% mining fall to a temporary suspension at one large company and lower ore grades. Non-mining activity grew 1.4% in August.
When will Chile publish third-quarter GDP?
The Banco Central lists the third-quarter national accounts for 18 November 2026. The September Imacec comes first, on Monday 2 November.
How did Chilean stocks do in October?
The MSCI IPSA fell 6.5% in October, or 8.2% in dollars, its worst month since October 2023, according to Diario Financiero. It dropped 2.8% on Friday 30 October alone.
Sources: Banco Central de Chile, Imacec August 2026, 1 October 2026; Banco Central de Chile, Imacec July 2026, 1 September 2026; Banco Central de Chile, national accounts second quarter 2026; Banco Central de Chile, statistical calendar 2026; INE, Industrial Production Index bulletin, 30 October 2026; INE, Commerce Activity Index bulletin, 30 October 2026; Diario Financiero, September activity preview, 30 October 2026; La Tercera, economists raise September estimates, 30 October 2026; Diario Financiero, IPSA ends October, 30 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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