CHILE · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- The country Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, saw its statistics office publish three activity reports on Friday 30 October 2026.
- Industrial Production It fell 2.7% in September from a year earlier; forecast was a 1.9% rise, August was -5.7%.
- Manufacturing Production It rose 2.0% in September; forecast was 3.0%, August was -2.6%.
- Retail Sales Retail activity rose 4.4% from a year earlier (forecast 3.6%, August 3.4%) and 1.0% on the month (forecast -0.3%, August 1.2%).
- Power Index Chile ranks 3rd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 63.6 points (October 2026 edition).
Chile’s factories grew in September 2026, but its mines dragged the whole industrial sector down, and shoppers spent more than analysts expected. The National Statistics Institute (INE, the government agency that counts the economy) published all three reports on Friday 30 October 2026.
For US investors, the split matters because it shows a Chile that is strong at home and weak where the money is made, in copper. Our report on Chile’s copper output falling 15% in September explains the mining side in detail.
Industrial Production Misses by 4.6 Points
Industrial Production fell 2.7% in September from September 2025, according to INE. Economists had expected a rise of 1.9%, so the result missed by 4.6 percentage points, although it was better than August’s fall of 5.7%.
The index has three parts: mining, manufacturing, and electricity, gas and water. Mining fell 8.7% and took 3.7 percentage points off the total, while manufacturing and utilities both grew.
INE adjusts the data for the calendar as well. September 2026 had one more working day than September 2025, and once that and the usual seasonal swings are removed, output was 3.7% lower than a year earlier but 2.7% higher than in August.
Manufacturing Production Turns Positive
Manufacturing Production rose 2.0% in September, against a forecast of 3.0% and a fall of 2.6% in August. It is a miss on paper, yet it is a clear turn from August, and INE says it was 0.7% higher than in August after seasonal adjustment.
The biggest push came from drinks, up 12.5%, which INE links to more bottled wine sold to foreign buyers. Food products grew 3.2% and paper products 4.7%, while metal products, a group that includes steel parts, fell 7.2% because fewer power-sector projects were being contracted.
Electricity, gas and water together grew 0.8%. INE credits more electricity from hydroelectric plants and more water supplied to homes.
Retail Sales Beat Both Forecasts
Retail Sales were the bright spot, and INE’s retail activity index rose 4.4% from a year earlier. That compares with a forecast of 3.6% and 3.4% in August.
On the month, after seasonal adjustment, retail grew 1.0% when analysts had expected a 0.3% fall. August had risen 1.2%, so retail has now grown on the month two times in a row.
Online and household goods led the gain. Sales by mail and internet were up 20.3%, spare parts and tires for cars rose 15.6%, and electronics and home equipment climbed 8.4%.
Supermarkets were the soft spot, with sales up only 0.4% in the year. INE’s wider commerce index, which also counts wholesale and car dealers, rose 2.7%, with every one of its three branches growing.
Why the Numbers Split
Mining explains almost the whole industrial miss. INE named a temporary stoppage at one large company and lower ore grades at several mines, which means the rock now holds less copper and miners must move more of it for the same metal.
Copper mines made 15.1% less metal in September than a year earlier, the third monthly fall in a row. Shoppers, by contrast, have a central bank that held its key rate at 4.5% on Tuesday 27 October, as our report on the rate decision shows.
Chile’s jobless rate stands at 9.8% for the third quarter, which tempers the picture, as our coverage of the truckers’ strike and unemployment explains. Strong spending next to weak hiring is a gap worth watching, and INE does not explain it.
What It Means for You
If you hold Chile through US funds, the numbers say the economy is not collapsing, but the earnings engine is copper, and copper volumes are shrinking. The iShares MSCI Chile ETF (ECH), a US-listed fund that tracks large Chilean companies, closed at US$35.51 on Thursday 29 October, and the report is unlikely to change that story on its own.
The peso ended Thursday near 988 per US dollar, so 1,000 pesos are worth about US$1.01. Weak mining output means fewer dollars flowing in, which can pressure the peso, while a copper price that stays high, as Chile’s state copper commission now projects, softens the blow to the budget.
US companies that sell consumer goods or online services in Chile get a positive signal, since online sales are growing at about 20% a year. Travelers face no change from these reports.
What Would Change the Picture
A restart at the stopped mine and better ore grades would lift mining quickly, and the industrial index would turn positive again. A further fall in copper output in October, or a drop in copper prices, would deepen the gap with manufacturing and shops.
On the shopping side, a rise in unemployment or in the cost of credit would cool spending. The next big check is the Imacec, the central bank’s monthly estimate of the whole economy, which will show how much of this split reaches national growth.
What Is Not Known
It is not known which company paused mining or for how long, because INE did not name it. The September figures are provisional and INE may revise them when it publishes October data.
It is also unclear whether the jump in retail is a lasting trend. INE gives no reason why supermarkets grew only 0.4% while online sales rose about 20%.
More: Chile news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Did Chile’s Industrial Production Do in September?
It fell 2.7% from a year earlier, against a forecast rise of 1.9%. Mining fell 8.7%, while manufacturing and utilities grew.
Did Chile’s Manufacturing Production Grow in September?
Yes, it rose 2.0% from a year earlier, below the 3.0% forecast but a turn from August’s fall of 2.6%. Drinks, led by wine exports, were the main driver.
How Strong Were Chile’s Retail Sales in September?
INE’s retail activity index rose 4.4% from a year earlier and 1.0% on the month, both better than forecast. Online sales grew about 20%, while supermarkets rose only 0.4%.
Sources: National Statistics Institute of Chile (INE), Industrial Production Index bulletin, September 2026, 30 October 2026; INE, Commerce Activity Index bulletin, September 2026, 30 October 2026; INE, Commerce Activity Index bulletin, August 2026, 30 September 2026; Central Bank of Chile, policy rate and exchange rate, 29 October 2026.
In depth
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error