Chile Copper Output Heads for 2003 Low

CHILE · MARKETS

Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer, is heading for its weakest mining year in more than two decades. The state Copper Commission (Cochilco) now expects 4.94 million tonnes in 2026, which is 8.4% less than in 2025.

For US readers, this matters because copper runs through the power grids, electric cars and data centers that American companies are building. Less supply from Chile, even at very high prices, keeps the market tight for buyers and for miners listed in New York.

What Happened

Cochilco cut its Chile forecast sharply in its third-quarter copper report, published on 30 October. In August it had expected 5.27 million tonnes, a fall of only 2.6%.

Output from January to September reached 3.63 million tonnes, 8.5% below the same period of 2025. Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, the state producer Codelco and the Spence mine together explain 77.3% of that drop.

Escondida, run by the mining group BHP, produced about 127,000 tonnes less than a year earlier. Spence is another BHP mine.

Why Output Is Falling

Cochilco and analysts point to lower ore grades, maintenance work and operating interruptions at big sites. Output peaked at about 5.83 million tonnes in 2018, according to Cochilco data.

Codelco has also confirmed a preliminary estimate that it overstated its output by about 42,100 tonnes in 2024 and 2025. The figure is not final, as we explained in our report on the Codelco error.

How the Economy Feels It

Chile’s central bank said the economy grew only 0.2% in September from a year earlier, while mining output fell 12.1%. Activity outside mining grew 2.0%, which kept the total positive.

High prices softened the blow. Cochilco now forecasts a 2026 average of US$6.18 per pound, up from US$5.95 in August, and the last London Metal Exchange (the main world metals market) price it used was US$6.60.

What to Expect in 2027

Cochilco expects output to rise 3.0% to 5.08 million tonnes in 2027, which would restore about one third of this year’s loss. In August it had expected 5.55 million tonnes.

The commission still sees the world copper market close to balance. It projects a refined-copper surplus of 144,000 tonnes in 2026, only 0.5% of world demand, and 215,000 tonnes in 2027.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, shows a 58.0% chance that Chile’s central bank leaves its rate unchanged in December and 41.5% for a 25-basis-point rise (6 November, 1:46 p.m. ET). About US$22,700 has been traded on the market, and the prices are bets, not polls.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

If you hold US-listed miners or copper funds, Chile’s shortfall helps keep prices high but limits how much metal producers can sell. BHP, which runs Escondida and Spence, has American depositary receipts (US-traded shares of a foreign company).

Chile’s economy leans heavily on copper, so weak output also drags on growth, as the September figures show. Travellers need not change plans, because the slowdown shows up in company reports rather than in daily life.

What Is Not Known

It is not known whether Codelco can steady its mines fast enough to deliver the 2027 rebound. Cochilco’s 2026 forecast also needs fourth-quarter output of about 434,000 tonnes a month, 7.6% above the January-to-September average.

It is also not known whether Codelco’s final figures will differ from the preliminary estimate. Cochilco may change its forecast again in its next report.

More: Chile news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

How Much Copper Will Chile Produce in 2026?

Cochilco, Chile’s state copper commission, expects 4.94 million tonnes, down 8.4% from 2025. In August it had forecast 5.27 million tonnes.

When Did Chile Last Produce Under 5 Million Tonnes?

Industry data suggest the 2026 forecast would be the lowest since 2003. Output peaked at about 5.83 million tonnes in 2018.

Why Is Chilean Copper Output Falling?

Cochilco and analysts cite lower ore grades, maintenance work and operating interruptions. Escondida, Codelco and Spence explain 77.3% of the fall this year.

Does Lower Chilean Output Raise Copper Prices?

It can help support them. Cochilco says limited mine supply is the main support for prices, and it forecasts a 2026 average of US$6.18 per pound.

Sources: Cochilco (Chilean Copper Commission), copper market trends report, third quarter 2026, November 2026; Central Bank of Chile, monthly economic activity index (Imacec), September 2026, 2 November 2026; Codelco, statement on overstated output, November 2026; Polymarket, Central Bank of Chile decision in December, 6 November 2026.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error