Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for June 20, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are set for a dynamic session today, driven by a robust slate of international economic indicators, as domestic markets resume trading after the Corpus Christi Day holiday.
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) raised the Selic rate to 15% on June 18, 2025, a 0.25 percentage point hike to curb inflation exceeding the 3% target, marking the highest rate since 2006.
This tightening aims to stabilize expectations amid a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 76.2% and a projected 2025 fiscal deficit of R$104 billion. While the hike may bolster the Brazilian real through carry trade interest, it risks slowing growth by raising borrowing costs.
This could affect sectors like retail and construction. Today’s global economic agenda is critical, shaping expectations for commodity demand, currency stability, and investor sentiment.
Key events include the UK’s Retail Sales data, which will signal consumer spending trends impacting demand for Brazilian agricultural exports. The German PPI and French Business Survey will reflect industrial and economic activity, influencing Brazil’s metal exports.
The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Canada’s Retail Sales will offer clues on North American demand, affecting Brazil’s oil and protein exports.
These events are pivotal as the Ibovespa navigates volatility, the real hovers near R$5.50, and commodities face global trade and geopolitical pressures.
Economic Agenda
Brazil
- All Day – Holiday: None. Markets reopen after yesterday’s Corpus Christi Day closure, with potential for increased volatility due to pent-up trading activity.
United Kingdom
- 02:00 AM EST / 03:00 AM BRT – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May): Actual -2.8%, consensus -0.5%, previous 1.4%. Weak consumer spending signals reduced demand for Brazilian agricultural goods.
- 02:00 AM EST / 03:00 AM BRT – Core Retail Sales (YoY) (May): Actual -1.3%, consensus 1.8%, previous 5.2%. Reflects declining retail momentum, impacting export demand.
- 02:00 AM EST / 03:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (May): Actual -2.7%, consensus -0.5%, previous 1.3%. Sharp decline signals caution for Brazilian agribusiness exports.
- 02:00 AM EST / 03:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (May): Actual -1.3%, consensus 1.7%, previous 5.0%. Weak annual growth affects trade sentiment.
- 02:00 AM EST / 03:00 AM BRT – Public Sector Net Borrowing (May): Actual 17.69B, consensus 17.90B, previous 20.05B. Fiscal trends influence global risk appetite, impacting Brazilian assets.
- 02:00 AM EST / 03:00 AM BRT – Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (May): Actual 20.936B, previous 9.284B. Signals government financing needs, affecting emerging market sentiment.
Eurozone
- 02:00 AM EST / 03:00 AM BRT – German PPI (YoY) (May): Actual -1.2%, consensus -1.2%, previous -0.9%. Stable producer prices signal muted industrial demand for Brazilian metals.
- 02:00 AM EST / 03:00 AM BRT – German PPI (MoM) (May): Actual -0.2%, consensus -0.3%, previous -0.6%. Slight decline reflects weak industrial activity, impacting copper and iron ore.
- 02:45 AM EST / 03:45 AM BRT – French Business Survey (Jun): Actual 96, consensus 97, previous 97. Lower confidence signals reduced demand for Brazilian commodities.
- 03:52 AM EST / 04:52 AM BRT – ECB Economic Bulletin: Actual TBD. Provides monetary policy insights, influencing demand for Brazilian exports.
- 03:52 AM EST / 04:52 AM BRT – M3 Money Supply (YoY): Actual TBD, consensus 4.0%, previous 3.9%. Tracks liquidity, impacting commodity trade flows.
- 03:52 AM EST / 04:52 AM BRT – Private Sector Loans (YoY): Actual TBD, consensus 2.0%, previous 1.9%. Signals credit conditions, affecting Brazilian export demand.
- 06:00 AM EST / 07:00 AM BRT – Eurogroup Meetings: Actual TBD. Discusses economic policy, critical for Brazil’s commodity exports.
- 06:00 AM EST / 07:00 AM BRT – ECOFIN Meetings: Actual TBD. Shapes EU economic policy, influencing trade flows for Brazilian goods.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Consumer Confidence (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus -15.0, previous -15.2. Gauges sentiment, impacting demand for Brazilian exports.
Japan
- 02:40 AM EST / 03:40 AM BRT – BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks: Actual TBD. Provides policy signals, influencing demand for Brazilian commodities.
Hong Kong
- 04:30 AM EST / 05:30 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, previous -0.10%. Tracks inflation, signaling commodity demand trends.
- 04:30 AM EST / 05:30 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 2.00%, previous 2.00%. Stable inflation impacts trade sentiment.
China
- 05:00 AM EST / 06:00 AM BRT – FDI (May): Actual TBD, previous -10.90%. Reflects investment trends, critical for Brazilian metal and agribusiness exports.
India
- 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Bank Loan Growth: Actual TBD, previous 9.8%. Signals credit expansion, impacting commodity demand.
- 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Deposit Growth: Actual TBD, previous 10.0%. Reflects banking sector health, influencing trade flows.
- 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Current Account (USD): Actual TBD, previous -23.200B. Tracks trade balance, affecting Brazilian exports.
- 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Current Account % of GDP (YoY): Actual TBD, previous -0.70%. Signals economic health, impacting commodity trade.
- 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – FX Reserves, USD: Actual TBD, previous 696.66B. Reflects currency stability, influencing Brazilian real.
- 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Infrastructure Output (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, previous 0.5%. Signals industrial demand for Brazilian metals.
- 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – RBI MPC Meeting Minutes: Actual TBD. Provides policy insights, impacting emerging market sentiment.
United States
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus -1.7, previous -4.0. Signals industrial activity, impacting Brazilian oil and metal exports.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jun): Actual TBD, previous 47.2. Reflects manufacturing outlook, influencing commodity demand.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Jun): Actual TBD, previous 27.00. Tracks capital spending, signaling demand for Brazilian metals.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed Employment (Jun): Actual TBD, previous 16.5. Reflects labor market trends, impacting trade sentiment.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed New Orders (Jun): Actual TBD, previous 7.5. Signals industrial demand, critical for Brazilian exports.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jun): Actual TBD, previous 59.80. Tracks inflation, influencing commodity prices.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – US Leading Index (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus -0.1%, previous -1.0. Gauges economic trends, impacting Brazilian assets.
- 01:00 PM EST / 02:00 PM BRT – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Actual TBD, previous 439. Signals oil production trends, affecting Brazil’s energy sector.
- 01:00 PM EST / 02:00 PM BRT – U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: Actual TBD, previous 555. Reflects drilling activity, impacting oil prices.
- 04:30 PM EST / 05:30 PM BRT – Fed’s Balance Sheet: Actual TBD, previous 6,677B. Tracks monetary policy, influencing global risk appetite.
- 04:30 PM EST / 05:30 PM BRT – Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Actual TBD, previous 3.430T. Signals liquidity, impacting emerging markets.
Canada
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus -0.2%, previous -0.7%. Signals consumer spending, impacting Brazilian protein exports.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.4%, previous 0.8%. Reflects retail trends, influencing trade flows.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – IPPI (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 0.0%, previous -0.8%. Tracks producer prices, signaling commodity demand.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – IPPI (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, previous 2.0%. Reflects industrial inflation, impacting Brazilian exports.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – RMPI (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus -0.8%, previous -3.0%. Signals raw material prices, affecting commodity trade.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – RMPI (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, previous -3.6%. Tracks material cost trends, influencing Brazilian metals.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus -0.2%, previous -0.4%. Signals construction demand, impacting Brazilian copper.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s markets were closed on June 19, 2025, for the Corpus Christi Day holiday, halting trading activity on the Ibovespa and B3. The prior session on June 18 saw the Ibovespa close at 138,716.64 points, down 0.09%, reflecting caution ahead of the BCB’s Selic rate decision.
Trading volumes were robust at R$27.6 billion, supported by B3’s market maker programs. Embraer gained nearly 4% on strong aerospace demand, while Minerva and BRF rose on export optimism.
Commodity stocks faced pressure from global volatility, amplified by fiscal concerns with a projected R$104 billion deficit and 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets were closed on June 19, 2025, for Juneteenth, limiting trading activity. On June 18, the S&P 500 fell 1.85 points, or less than 0.1%, to 5,980.87, within 2.8% of its peak.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 44.14 points, or 0.1%, to 42,171.66, while the Nasdaq rose 25.18 points, or 0.1%, to 19,546.27. The Russell 2000 gained 0.5% to 2,112.96.
Stable Treasury yields and fluctuating oil prices amid Middle East tensions shaped a cautious tone, with implications for Brazilian commodity exports and the real.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
Brazil’s markets were closed on June 19, 2025, for the Corpus Christi Day holiday, halting trading activity on the Ibovespa and B3.
Oil Prices
Oil prices retreated on June 19, 2025, with Brent crude trading near $74 per barrel, down from recent highs, as geopolitical uncertainties and technical sell signals triggered a pullback. The decline pressures Petrobras’ revenues, though Brazil’s oil exports remain resilient.
Today’s U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count and Canada’s RMPI will provide demand and supply signals critical for Brazil’s energy sector. Note: No trading occurred on June 19 due to the Corpus Christi Day holiday.
Gold Prices
Gold slid on June 19, 2025, trading near $3,350 per troy ounce, as geopolitical tensions eased slightly and macro forces shifted sentiment. Safe-haven demand supports Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale, despite the dip.
Today’s Eurogroup Meetings and German PPI will influence safe-haven flows and industrial demand. Note: No trading occurred on June 19 due to the Corpus Christi Day holiday.
Silver Prices
Silver fell on June 19, 2025, to $35.50 per ounce, driven by uncertainty over U.S.-Iran policy and technical selling, though supply deficits provide support.
This impacts Brazil’s mining exports, with Vale affected. Today’s Eurozone Consumer Confidence and Canada’s New Housing Price Index will guide industrial metal demand. Note: No trading occurred on June 19 due to the Corpus Christi Day holiday.
Copper Prices
Copper prices dropped on June 19, 2025, to $4.65 per pound, pressured by surplus forecasts and technical breakdowns, impacting Vale’s revenues.
Brazil’s copper exports face challenges, though long-term demand remains. Today’s China FDI and German PPI will clarify industrial demand trends. Note: No trading occurred on June 19 due to the Corpus Christi Day holiday.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin traded steadily on June 19, 2025, near $106,000, with markets awaiting a breakout amid mixed technical signals. Altcoins showed early rotation signs, supporting Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc.
Today’s UK Retail Sales and U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index may influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment. Note: No trading occurred on June 19 due to the Corpus Christi Day holiday.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices edged up on June 19, 2025, to $94 per ton on the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index, recovering from multi-month lows despite weak Chinese demand.
This offers relief to Vale, though challenges persist. Today’s China FDI and India Infrastructure Output will signal commodity demand trends. Note: No trading occurred on June 19 due to the Corpus Christi Day holiday.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s agribusiness sector, contributing 27.4% to GDP in 2024, faces headwinds in 2025 from the Selic rate hike to 15% and global trade uncertainties. Inflation, projected at 5.2%, and fiscal strains with a R$104 billion deficit and 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio challenge growth.
Today’s China FDI, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, and U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will shape export demand and currency stability, critical for commodity-driven industries like mining and agriculture.
Company Updates
Petroreconcavo’s Cassarongongo Field Restart: Petroreconcavo gained approval to restart operations at the Cassarongongo field in Bahia on June 18, 2025, boosting Brazil’s onshore oil production.
The move supports energy sector growth, though oil price volatility poses risks. Today’s U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count and Canada’s RMPI will influence oil market sentiment.
JBS Batista Brothers’ Leadership: JBS, led by the Batista brothers, reported a 12% revenue increase to R$80 billion in Q1 2025, driven by global meat demand, despite facing regulatory scrutiny.
High interest rates at 15% pressure margins. Today’s UK Retail Sales and Canada’s Core Retail Sales will guide protein export demand.
Nestlé’s Investment in Brazil: Nestlé committed R$1.3 billion to Brazil in 2025, focusing on local supply chains and production expansion.
The investment bolsters agribusiness, though high interest rates challenge profitability. Today’s Eurozone Consumer Confidence and India Current Account will shape export sentiment.
Petrobras’ Dividend Dilemma: Petrobras faces pressure to balance investor dividends with state demands, with Q1 2025 dividends projected at R$14 billion.
Oil price declines and high interest rates complicate payouts. Today’s U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count and Canada’s RMPI will influence energy sector outlook.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). EST is applied here for consistency, as requested, and is the standard for U.S. financial markets, influencing global trading schedules.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-1.33%
174,379.77
-1.33%
66,247.47
-1.56%
11,017.94
+0.93%
3,318,087
-0.04%
2,283.17
+0.00%
58,287.01
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,379.77 | -1.33% | +30.28% | 176,723.62 | 176,720 | 174,196 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -0.20% | -8.02% | 5.08 | 5.09 | 5.05 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.77 | -0.14% | -11.10% | 5.78 | 5.80 | 5.75 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 96.54 | -4.12% | +39.55% | 100.69 | 101.16 | 95.14 | 28,223 |
| WTI | 89.29 | -3.15% | +35.23% | 92.19 | 92.83 | 87.68 | 314,186 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.24% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,057 | +0.24% | +20.34% | 4,047 | 4,085 | 4,024 | 107,402 |
| SILVER | 58.60 | +1.38% | +50.16% | 57.80 | 59.29 | 57.36 | 25,000 |
| LITHIUM | 67.94 | -1.56% | +52.74% | 69.02 | 68.69 | 67.83 | 113,129 |
| SOY | 1,253 | +1.21% | +24.72% | 1,238 | 1,257 | 1,238 | 166,916 |
| CORN | 487.25 | +5.01% | +21.28% | 464.00 | 492.00 | 479.25 | 257,469 |
| WHEAT | 679.00 | -2.48% | +25.39% | 696.25 | 711.25 | 659.50 | 117,726 |
| COFFEE | 314.20 | +1.55% | +3.07% | 309.40 | 318.55 | 306.40 | 14,168 |
| SUGAR | 14.76 | +0.48% | -10.92% | 14.69 | 14.79 | 14.54 | 45,966 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.65 | -2.83% | -57.91% | 146.80 | 146.15 | 141.50 | 345 |
| COTTON | 80.00 | +0.20% | +18.80% | 79.84 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 11,312 |
| BEEF | 222.58 | -1.25% | -1.43% | 225.40 | 224.13 | 220.78 | 19,283 |
| CATTLE | 342.05 | -0.50% | +4.00% | 343.77 | 345.48 | 337.25 | 9,940 |
| COCOA | 5,331 | +0.57% | -34.38% | 5,301 | 5,438 | 5,227 | 17,604 |
| PETR4 | 42.20 | -1.75% | +32.22% | 42.95 | 42.91 | 42.15 | 21,304,800 |
| VALE3 | 75.49 | -0.25% | +33.47% | 75.68 | 75.52 | 74.84 | 6,330,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.91 | -1.23% | -18.64% | 42.43 | 42.25 | 41.63 | 2,371,000 |
| KLABIN | 17.51 | -0.85% | -5.27% | 17.66 | 17.59 | 17.32 | 2,573,500 |
| SLCE3 | 13.74 | -0.22% | -13.89% | 13.77 | 13.80 | 13.63 | 1,008,100 |
| ABEV3 | 15.69 | -1.44% | +16.15% | 15.92 | 15.90 | 15.63 | 9,189,600 |
| ITUB4 | 42.16 | -0.94% | +23.86% | 42.56 | 42.45 | 42.08 | 7,031,100 |
| BBDC4 | 18.48 | -1.28% | +17.98% | 18.72 | 18.64 | 18.46 | 8,885,900 |
| BBAS3 | 20.47 | -2.20% | +2.04% | 20.93 | 20.82 | 20.41 | 10,010,900 |
| B3SA3 | 15.51 | -0.89% | +18.14% | 15.65 | 15.67 | 15.43 | 24,450,100 |
| WEGE3 | 45.54 | -0.28% | +25.78% | 45.67 | 46.19 | 44.94 | 5,149,500 |
| PRIO3 | 59.05 | -2.46% | +39.65% | 60.54 | 60.27 | 58.72 | 3,829,200 |
| RENT3 | 36.72 | -1.13% | +2.14% | 37.14 | 37.38 | 36.59 | 2,754,900 |
| AZZA3 | 16.73 | -1.88% | -54.18% | 17.05 | 17.17 | 16.70 | 1,126,500 |
| CSNA3 | 5.42 | +2.26% | -36.61% | 5.30 | 5.45 | 5.24 | 5,373,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.42 | +1.50% | +41.26% | 24.06 | 24.45 | 23.82 | 3,879,100 |
| ENEV3 | 24.93 | -3.00% | +80.23% | 25.70 | 25.58 | 24.90 | 2,639,700 |
| LREN3 | 13.22 | -1.12% | -22.54% | 13.37 | 13.49 | 13.18 | 5,882,800 |
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