Iron Ore Prices Edge Up from Multi-Month Lows as Chinese Demand Remains Weak

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures traded at $94.65 per ton on the morning of June 20, 2025, marking a slight gain of 0.34% over the previous session.

Official SGX data and TradingView charts confirm that the price has hovered near its lowest levels since April, with the market moving in a narrow band between $94.40 and $95.00 in the last 24 hours.

Volumes remained subdued, with open interest at 321,920 contracts, reflecting a lack of conviction among traders. Technical analysis of both daily and four-hour charts points to a persistent downtrend.

The price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, which cluster between $95.07 and $101.56, reinforcing the bearish structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sits at 34.33, close to oversold territory, while the four-hour RSI has recovered to 49.04, signaling some short-term stabilization.

The MACD remains negative on both timeframes, though the histogram shows signs of convergence, hinting at waning bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands on the daily chart indicate that the price continues to hug the lower band, suggesting ongoing downward pressure.

However, there is also a risk of a technical bounce if short covering intensifies. The $94.75 level stands as immediate support, with resistance at $97.35 and $101.56.

The four-hour chart confirms consolidation just above support, but the absence of a decisive move or volume spike suggests traders are waiting for a clearer catalyst.

Fundamental factors continue to weigh on sentiment. Chinese steel demand remains weak, with official data showing only modest output growth and high port inventories.

The latest figures report 146.85 million tons of iron ore at Chinese ports, up 28% year-on-year, signaling persistent oversupply. Mills remain focused on cost control, favoring lower-grade feedstocks and limiting restocking activity.

Supply from Australia and Brazil remains steady, with no new disruptions reported. The downgrade of Pilbara Blend fines quality by Rio Tinto has not offset broader demand weakness.

Macroeconomic indicators from China remain tepid. The most recent Purchasing Managers Index points to continued contraction in manufacturing, and fixed asset investment growth has slowed.

Heavy industry investment, which previously supported steel demand, now shows signs of plateauing. No major ETF inflows or outflows have been reported, and open interest remains steady, reflecting a market in search of direction.

The rebound above $94.50 suggests that some traders see sub-$95 prices as unsustainable in the short term, but the broader trend remains cautious.

Unless Chinese demand improves or supply tightens, prices may struggle to break above resistance, and volatility is likely to persist. The market’s current behavior highlights the interplay between technical support and persistent fundamental headwinds.

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