Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for April 25, 2025
Brazilian markets are poised for a critical day as key economic releases, both domestic and international, provide essential insights into inflationary pressures, consumer sentiment, and global demand dynamics.
These indicators are vital for Brazil’s export-driven economy, particularly in commodities, amid renewed optimism driven by easing U.S.-China trade tensions.
At 08:00 AM (BRT), Brazil’s Mid-Month CPI (MoM) (previous: 0.64%) and Mid-Month CPI (YoY) (previous: 5.26%) will gauge inflationary trends, critical for shaping monetary policy expectations and the Brazilian real’s valuation.
Higher-than-expected readings could signal rising price pressures, potentially prompting tighter policy from the Central Bank, while softer figures might ease concerns and support the real.
Globally, at 02:00 AM (EST) / 03:00 AM (BRT), the UK’s Retail Sales (MoM) for March (consensus: -0.4%, previous: 1.0%) will reflect consumer spending trends in a key market.
A weaker-than-expected figure could signal softening demand for Brazilian exports like agricultural goods, while a stable or stronger reading might support trade flows.
At 08:30 AM (EST) / 09:30 AM (BRT), Canada’s Retail Sales (MoM) for February (consensus: -0.4%, previous: -0.6%) will indicate consumer demand in another significant trading partner. Stronger retail sales could bolster demand for Brazilian commodities, while a decline might temper export optimism.
Finally, at 10:00 AM (EST) / 11:00 AM (BRT), the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April (consensus: 50.8, previous: 50.8) will measure consumer confidence in Brazil’s largest trading partner.
Stable or improved sentiment could drive demand for Brazilian goods, while a drop might signal weaker trade flows, impacting commodity prices and Brazil’s economic outlook.
Economic Agenda for April 25, 2025
Brazil
- 08:00 AM – Mid-Month CPI (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 0.64%. Tracks monthly inflation trends, signaling price pressures critical for monetary policy and economic stability.
- 08:00 AM – Mid-Month CPI (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 5.26%. Measures annual inflation, influencing Central Bank policy and the Brazilian real’s valuation.
United Kingdom
- 02:00 AM (EST) – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus -0.4%, previous 1.0%. Reflects consumer spending, impacting demand for Brazilian agricultural exports.
Canada
- 08:30 AM (EST) – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus -0.4%, previous -0.6%. Gauges consumer demand, influencing Brazil’s commodity export outlook.
United States
- 10:00 AM (EST) – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 50.8, previous 50.8. Measures consumer confidence, critical for Brazil’s trade and commodity prices.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market surged on April 24, 2025, as global optimism over easing U.S.-China trade tensions fueled risk appetite.
The Ibovespa index climbed 1.79% to close at 134,580 points, marking a seven-month high and extending a four-day winning streak, with a year-to-date gain of nearly 12%
The rally was supported by strong performances in export-oriented sectors, with investors rotating into emerging markets like Brazil’s commodity-heavy economy.
The Brazilian real strengthened significantly, with the USD/BRL exchange rate dropping 1.31% to R$5.73, driven by renewed foreign capital inflows and robust commodity flows
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks rallied for the second consecutive day on April 24, 2025, driven by hopes of de-escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and President Trump’s assurance that he would retain Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1% or 419.59 points to close at 39,606.57.
The S&P 500 gained 1.7% or 88.10 points to 5,375.86, with tech and consumer discretionary sectors leading, as the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) jumped 2.9% and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) gained 2.2%.
The Nasdaq advanced 2.5% or 407.63 points to 16,708.05. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 6.93% to 28.24, reflecting reduced market fear. Advancers outnumbered decliners by a 3.28-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and 2.87-to-1 on the Nasdaq, with 17.40 billion shares traded, below the 20-session average of 19.18 billion.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Oil prices struggled to hold ground on April 24, 2025, as supply increases and shifting market dynamics weighed on sentiment. This decline pressures Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues, with today’s U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment data critical for gauging consumer-driven deman.
Gold Prices
Gold prices retreated from recent highs on April 24, 2025, driven by profit-taking and easing trade tensions reducing safe-haven demand. Despite the pullback, persistent global uncertainties support Brazil’s mining sector, with today’s UK and Canada Retail Sales data influencing safe-haven demand forecast.
Silver Prices
Silver prices held firm on April 24, 2025, supported by industrial demand and optimism tied to potential rate cuts and easing trade barriers.
This stability bolsters Brazil’s mining exports, with today’s U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment data key for assessing industrial consumption.
Copper Prices
Copper prices remained volatile on April 24, 2025, balancing supply constraints, tariff concerns, and industrial demand. This dynamic supports Vale’s operations, though uncertainties persist. Today’s UK and Canada Retail Sales data will provide clarity on global demand trends.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin held steady above $93,000 on April 24, 2025, bolstered by institutional buying and ETF inflows, signaling a power shift in global markets. This resilience supports Brazil’s fintech sector, reflecting investor confidence amid economic shift.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Industry leaders signaled potential economic deceleration for Brazil in 2025, citing global trade uncertainties and domestic challenges. Today’s Mid-Month CPI data will be critical for assessing inflationary pressures and their impact on economic growth.
Petrobras
Petrobras faces ongoing pressure from declining oil prices on April 24, 2025, driven by supply increases and market shifts. Today’s U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment data will provide insights into global energy demand, crucial for Petrobras’ export revenue projections.
Usiminas
Usiminas reported a ninefold profit surge in Q1 2025, driven by operational efficiencies, yet its shares slid amid market uncertainty and profit-taking. Today’s UK and Canada Retail Sales data will influence demand forecasts for steel export.
Azul
Azul raised R$1.66 billion through a share offering on April 24, 2025, marking a key step in its financial restructuring. This move bolsters investor confidence in the airline sector, with today’s Mid-Month CPI data critical for assessing cost pressures.
Hypera
Hypera faced steep losses in Q1 2025 due to working capital policy shifts and strategic challenges, weighing on its market performance. Today’s Mid-Month CPI data will be pivotal for gauging inflationary impacts on its cost structure.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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+1.37%
186,340.46
+1.37%
65,110.57
+0.26%
10,969.49
-0.78%
2,819,323
+1.32%
2,549.16
-0.38%
60,410.88
-0.96%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 186,340.46 | +1.37% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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