Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for April 11, 2025
Brazilian markets face a critical day today, driven by key domestic and international economic releases. These reports will offer insights into inflationary pressures, economic activity, and global sentiment amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions.
At 08:00 AM (BRT), Brazil’s CPI (MoM) for March (previous: 1.31%) will offer a snapshot of monthly inflation trends. A higher-than-expected reading could heighten concerns about persistent price pressures, potentially prompting tighter monetary policy from the Central Bank and weighing on the Brazilian real.
Globally, at 02:00 AM (EST) / 03:00 AM (BRT), the UK’s GDP (MoM) for February (consensus: 0.1%, previous: -0.1%) will reflect economic growth trends in a key market. A weaker-than-expected figure could signal softening demand for Brazilian exports like agricultural goods, while a rebound might stabilize trade expectations.
Also at 02:00 AM (EST) / 03:00 AM (BRT), UK Industrial Production (MoM) for February (consensus: 0.1%, previous: -0.9%) will measure industrial activity. A contraction could further pressure Brazil’s industrial export outlook, whereas growth might offer relief.
At the same time, Germany’s CPI (YoY) for March (consensus: 2.2%, previous: 2.2%) will indicate inflation trends in the Eurozone’s largest economy. Stable or lower inflation could support demand for Brazilian commodities, while an uptick might tighten monetary conditions, impacting trade.
At 08:30 AM (EST) / 09:30 AM (BRT), the U.S. PPI (YoY) for March (consensus: 3.3%, previous: 3.2%) will gauge producer price inflation in Brazil’s largest trading partner.
A higher reading could fuel expectations of sustained U.S. interest rates, strengthening the dollar and pressuring the real, while a decline might ease global risk-off sentiment, supporting Brazilian assets.
At 10:00 AM (EST) / 11:00 AM (BRT), the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April (consensus: 54.0, previous: 57.0) will reflect U.S. consumer confidence.
A drop could hint at reduced demand for Brazilian goods, impacting commodity prices, while stability or improvement might bolster trade flows.
Economic Agenda for April 11, 2025
Brazil
- 08:00 AM – CPI (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 1.31%. Tracks monthly inflation trends, signaling price pressures critical for monetary policy and economic stability.
- 08:00 AM – IBC-Br Economic Activity (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 0.90%. Measures economic momentum, reflecting resilience amid global trade disruptions.
United Kingdom
- 02:00 AM (EST) – GDP (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 0.1%, previous -0.1%. Indicates economic growth, influencing demand for Brazilian exports.
- 02:00 AM (EST) – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 0.1%, previous -0.9%. Tracks industrial activity, impacting Brazil’s export outlook.
Eurozone (Germany)
- 02:00 AM (EST) – German CPI (YoY) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 2.2%, previous 2.2%. Reflects inflation in a key market, affecting Brazil’s commodity exports.
United States
- 08:30 AM (EST) – PPI (YoY) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 3.3%, previous 3.2%. Gauges U.S. producer inflation, influencing monetary policy and Brazilian currency dynamics.
- 10:00 AM (EST) – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 54.0, previous 57.0. Measures U.S. consumer confidence, critical for Brazil’s export markets and commodity prices.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market faced sharp declines on April 10, 2025, with the Ibovespa dropping 1.31% to close at 126,015 points, reflecting global market jitters driven by the U.S.-China trade war.
The index struggled as investors grappled with escalating tariffs—U.S. duties on Chinese goods at 145% and China’s 84% retaliatory tariffs—disrupting Brazil’s commodity export outlook, particularly soybeans and iron ore reliant on Chinese demand.
The Brazilian real weakened slightly, with the USD/BRL exchange rate rising to R$5.9362, up 0.88% from the previous day’s R$5.9388, pressured by global dollar dynamics and trade war fears despite Central Bank support.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell 1.90% to 99.705, its lowest level this month, following U.S. inflation data showing a 0.1% monthly decrease and a yearly rate of 2.4%.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets retreated from historic gains on April 10, 2025, as President Donald Trump’s trade war escalation rattled investors. The S&P 500 fell 188.85 points, or 3.5%, to 5,268.05.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,014.79 points, or 2.5%, to 39,593.66, and the Nasdaq composite sank 737.66 points, or 4.3%, to 16,387.31. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies lost 81.77 points, or 4.3%, to 1,831.39.
Losses accelerated after the White House confirmed 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, up from an earlier 125% mention, with China’s 84% counter-tariffs adding to global uncertainty. This risk-off sentiment amplified pressures on Brazilian assets.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Brent crude prices fell over 3% on April 10, 2025, amid U.S.-China trade war disruptions, though they edged up slightly as supply fears lingered. This decline pressures Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues, with today’s U.S. PPI and consumer sentiment data critical for demand signals.
Gold Prices
Gold soared to $3,175 per ounce on April 10, 2025, driven by heightened safe-haven demand amid global trade tensions. This rally supports Brazil’s mining sector, offering export stability despite broader commodity market volatility.
Silver Prices
Silver prices reached $31.243 per ounce on April 10, 2025, reflecting a cautious recovery in global markets amid trade uncertainties. This uptick supports Brazil’s mining exports, though gains remain tempered by industrial demand concerns.
Copper Prices
Copper prices stabilized on April 10, 2025, despite trade war pressures, as supply shifts provided some support. Brazil’s commodity export outlook, tied to Vale’s resilience, remains cautious as global demand forecasts weaken.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin formed a potential bullish triangle pattern after a 15% price correction, stabilizing on April 10, 2025. This resilience influences Brazil’s fintech sentiment, reflecting cautious optimism amid global economic uncertainty.
Companies and Market
Service Sector
Brazil’s service sector defied expectations with growth in February 2025, signaling resilience despite global trade headwinds. Today’s CPI and IBC-Br data will be critical for assessing broader economic momentum and consumer strength.
Petrobras
Petrobras is exploring new frontiers in India and Africa, alongside a planned oil auction to raise R$20 billion, reflecting strategic expansion amid fiscal pressures. Falling oil prices on April 10, 2025, strained its outlook, with today’s U.S. data pivotal for export markets.
Brazil’s Tariff Exposure
The U.S.-China trade war, with 145% U.S. tariffs and 84% Chinese counter-tariffs, disrupts Brazil’s commodity exports like soybeans and iron ore, heavily reliant on Chinese demand. Today’s UK, German, and U.S. data will influence market direction amid persistent trade risks.
Additional Companies
Junto Seguros: Strengthened market leadership with 10% profit growth in 2024, reflecting resilience in Brazil’s insurance sector.
Banco de Brasília: Reported a profit surge and major acquisition, driving strategic growth in the banking sector.
Agrogalaxy: Secured approval for a debt recovery plan after a 12-hour assembly, signaling financial restructuring to navigate economic challenges.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.37%
186,340.46
+1.37%
64,951.10
-0.24%
10,969.49
-0.78%
2,819,323
+1.32%
2,549.16
-0.38%
60,410.88
-0.96%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 186,340.46 | +1.37% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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