Copper Prices Steady Amid Global Trade Tensions and Supply Shifts

TradingView data reveals copper prices holding steady at $4.45188 per pound on April 11, 2025, at 08:55 AM CEST. This stability follows a 0.06% rise, with the day’s range spanning $4.42461 to $4.45419.

Despite a 10.95% gain since January, prices remain far below the March peak of $5.20.
On April 10, copper dropped from $4.62960 to $4.35234, reflecting fears over China’s 34% tariff on U.S. imports, effective April 12.

Trading volumes fell 15% as investors hesitated, but prices later recovered to $4.45. Overnight, Chinese state-owned enterprises bought 200,000 tonnes, stabilizing the market between $4.41155 and $4.45188.

Globally, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 0.8% rise in copper contracts, reaching 73,290 yuan per metric ton. However, the Shanghai premium weakened to $27 per tonne, hinting at softer demand.

The London Metal Exchange saw three-month contracts at $8,900 per tonne, bolstered by a 3.2% drop in warehouse stocks. COMEX futures stayed within $4.40 to $4.45, while India’s MCX likely settled at ₹820 per kilogram.

Trade tensions drive uncertainty, with the U.S.-China tariff war escalating. A 104% U.S. tariff on Chinese goods, effective April 9, excludes copper but raises recession fears.

Beijing’s retaliation pledge adds pressure, though a 90-day tariff pause by the U.S. on April 10 lifted prices slightly. Meanwhile, global smelting activity fell, with inactivity at 12.6% in March, cutting output by 150,000 metric tons.

Copper Market Update

Supply dynamics shift as Hindustan Copper resumed production at its Kolihan mine on April 10, boosting shares by 3.33%. Yet, labor strikes in Chile and Peru threaten output, potentially reducing supply by 10,000 tons.

Investors pulled $120 million from copper ETFs this week, reflecting caution, while speculative positions dropped from March highs. Technically, copper tests the 50-day moving average at $4.40458, with an RSI of 42 signaling stability.

Support sits at $4.36144, and resistance looms at $4.45681. The market balances long-term demand from green energy against short-term trade and economic challenges. Chile’s Cochilco forecasts a 2025 price range of $3.90 to $4.00 per pound, down from $4.25.

Analysts warn of risks as global growth slows and trade disputes intensify. Investors eye China’s stimulus plans and U.S. economic data, like the Producer Price Index, for direction.

Copper’s role in electrification and infrastructure keeps it critical, but near-term volatility persists amid geopolitical and supply uncertainties.

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