ARGENTINA · MARKETS
Key Facts
- The country Argentina is a major South American economy and Brazil’s neighbor in the Mercosur trade bloc, with Brazil as its top trading partner.
- What happened On Monday 26 October 2026, Argentine stocks in New York fell as much as 12% after Lula won Brazil’s runoff.
- The numbers Country risk rose 38 points to about 745, the highest in a year, and the real lost over 10%.
- Why it matters US holders of Argentine ADRs and dollar bonds saw losses, and the peso hit a nominal record low.
- Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 61.2 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Javier Milei a 46.5% chance of winning the 2027 presidential election, and Kalshi 50% (26 October, 2:39 p.m. ET).
Argentine stocks fall after Lula win, with shares of Argentine companies in New York down as much as 12% on Monday 26 October 2026. Country risk, the extra yield investors demand to hold its dollar bonds instead of US Treasuries, jumped to about 745 points.
The shock came from next door, where left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026 against Flávio Bolsonaro. Investors had bet on Bolsonaro, the conservative senator whom Argentine President Javier Milei openly backed.
Which Argentine Stocks Fell the Most
Mercado Libre, an Argentine-founded online marketplace that earns most from Brazil, fell about 12% in New York after sliding over 15% before the open. Among Argentine stocks, banks and telecoms followed, with Banco Macro, BBVA Argentina and Galicia each down around 9% at the worst point.
These Argentine stocks trade as American depositary receipts, or ADRs, which let US investors buy foreign companies in dollars on US exchanges. In Buenos Aires the Merval, the local stock index, was down about 5% at midday.
Argentina Country Risk Hits 745 Points
JPMorgan’s EMBI index, a widely used gauge of emerging-market bond spreads, put Argentina at about 745 points, up 38 from 707 on Friday. That is the highest level in a year and a rise of about 23% in October alone.
Each point is a hundredth of a percentage point, so 745 means Argentina pays roughly 7.45 points more than Washington to borrow in dollars. Its dollar bonds lost between 1% and almost 2% on the day, depending on maturity.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
—
174,959.47
-14.69%
69,879.62
-0.01%
10,575.59
-1.59%
3,017,221
—
2,487.00
-2.09%
57,093.72
-0.06%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,017,221 | — | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
Why Brazil’s Vote Moves Argentina’s Markets
Brazil is Argentina’s largest trading partner, and the two are the biggest economies in Mercosur, the South American trade bloc. When the Brazilian currency drops, Brazilian goods get cheaper and Argentine exports lose ground.
On Monday the real fell sharply by more than 10%, from about 4.98 to above 5.60 reais per US dollar. Argentine analysts warn this cuts into the competitiveness the Milei government has built up.
A Rally Erased
Prediction markets had given Bolsonaro about a 75% chance before the vote, so Lula’s win, 51.8% to 48.2%, caught investors off guard. After the first round on 5 October, Argentine stocks had jumped and country risk had dropped below 600.
Monday wiped out that optimism, as country risk crossed 700 points again and Mercado Libre gave back its first-round gain. Argentina’s own doubts, including slow activity and the 2027 election, added to the pressure.
Milei Stays Silent on Lula’s Win
Milei, a libertarian economist who took office in December 2023, backed Bolsonaro during the campaign and attacked Lula repeatedly. By Monday afternoon, Argentine media reported no congratulations from Milei or the Foreign Ministry.
Argentine media reported that Brazil’s election did not come up at Monday’s cabinet meeting. Our earlier report on Argentina’s silence over Lula’s 51.8% win covers the diplomatic side.
The Peso Slides With the Real
The state-run Banco de la Nación sold dollars at 1,560 pesos per dollar, up from 1,550 and a nominal record. The wholesale rate rose to near 1,541 pesos per dollar.
The parallel rate called contado con liquidación, used by investors to move dollars abroad, rose about 2% to roughly 1,680 pesos per dollar. That widened the gap with the official rate to about 8%.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket gives Javier Milei a 46.5% chance of winning in 2027, with US$1.13 million traded, and Kalshi 50% (26 October, 2:39 p.m. ET). Axel Kicillof, the Buenos Aires province governor and a leading Peronist, is near 30% on both.
Polymarket’s price for Milei slipped 1.5 points in 24 hours, a small move. Bettors have so far not repriced the race sharply.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Americans hold Argentine risk mainly through ADRs and dollar bonds, and both traded lower on Monday. A higher country risk also raises the cost of any new dollar borrowing by Argentina.
Mercado Libre and funds with Brazilian holdings feel the slide in the real as well, and Argentine stocks remain exposed. The move is a repricing rather than a default signal, since the index stayed below 750 points.
What Is Not Known
Where Argentine stocks and country risk settle at the close is still open, since the figures here are intraday. No response from Economy Minister Luis Caputo or the central bank, known as the BCRA, had been reported by Monday afternoon.
It is not known whether the government will let the peso weaken further or sell reserves and futures to slow it. Nor is it known whether Milei will recognise Lula’s victory while Bolsonaro contests the result.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Argentine stocks fall after Lula’s win?
Investors had expected a Bolsonaro victory and sold Brazilian assets when Lula won. Argentine stocks and bonds are closely tied to Brazil through trade, banks and companies such as Mercado Libre.
What is Argentina country risk?
It is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of US Treasuries, measured in points. On 26 October it reached about 745 points, up from 707.
Which Argentine stocks fell the most?
Mercado Libre, Banco Macro, BBVA Argentina, Galicia and Telecom Argentina fell roughly 8% to 12% at the worst point. Nearly every Argentine ADR traded lower.
Has Milei recognised Lula’s win?
By Monday afternoon, Argentine media reported no congratulations from Milei or the Foreign Ministry. He had backed Bolsonaro during the campaign.
What does it mean for US investors?
Holders of Argentine ADRs and dollar bonds saw losses on the day. The size of any lasting damage depends on Brazil’s currency and on Argentina’s response.
Sources: Infobae, 26 October 2026; La Nación, 26 October 2026; El Cronista, 26 October 2026; Ámbito, 26 October 2026; iProfesional, 26 October 2026; Clarín, 26 October 2026; TN, 26 October 2026.
In depth
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff: date, poll closing times and when results start. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.