Argentina Country Risk Tops 700 Points Again
ARGENTINA · MARKETS
Key Facts
- The country Argentina is one of South America’s largest economies, run by President Javier Milei, a free-market conservative who took office in December 2023.
- What happened On Thursday 22 October, Argentina country risk, the extra yield investors demand on its dollar bonds, rose to 709 points.
- The dollar The official dollar sold at 1,550 pesos to the US dollar at Banco Nación, the state bank, a nominal record that day.
- The trigger Weak August activity data from the national statistics office, INDEC, showed output up only 0.1% on the month and down 1.7% on the year.
- The stocks Argentine shares listed in New York fell at the open, with steelmaker Ternium down 5.9% and oil-pipe maker Tenaris down 4.3%.
- Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 61.2 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Javier Milei a 48.0% chance of winning Argentina’s next presidential election (22 October, 1:57 p.m. ET).
Argentina country risk topped 700 points again on Thursday 22 October, the level that US bond investors watch as the price of holding Argentine debt. The index, compiled by US bank JPMorgan, added 35 points to reach 709, TN reported.
The official dollar also hit a record that morning, and Argentine shares listed in New York fell as much as 5.9%. The move follows a week in which the index reached a one-year high, as our Argentina market report of 19 October showed.
How Argentina Country Risk Jumped to 709
Country risk measures the gap between what Argentina pays on its dollar bonds and what the US Treasury pays on its own debt. A reading of 709 points means investors want 7.09 percentage points more than they get on US government bonds.
The index stood at 674 points at Wednesday’s close, after touching an annual high near 710 on Tuesday 20 October, according to Ámbito. Argentina’s dollar bonds opened Thursday down by as much as 1.5%, TN said.
Weak Data Pushes Argentina Country Risk Higher
INDEC released its monthly activity estimate for August on Wednesday 21 October. Output rose 0.1% from July, which had itself fallen 2.8% from June, and it was 1.7% lower than a year earlier, INDEC’s own series shows.
Analysts now see a technical recession as more likely for Argentina, meaning two straight quarters of falling output. Santiago Casas of the consultancy EcoAnalytics called the August figure “very bad”, Infobae reported.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,017,221 | — | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
Why Investors Worry About Argentina’s 2027 Financing
Part of the Argentina country risk rise comes from abroad, because higher US bond yields make borrowing dearer for every emerging market. The 10-year US Treasury yield stood near 5.11% on Wednesday, Infobae said.
At home, analysts point to doubts about how the government will pay its debts in 2027. Recent local debt auctions offered no dollar bonds, which raised questions about a plan to raise US$5 billion next year, TN said.
Argentina also owes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) US$7.84 billion in 2027, which weighs on Argentina country risk. The fund is paid ahead of other creditors, which analysts quoted by TN say could leave less room for bondholders in any restructuring.
The Official Dollar Hits a Record Beside Argentina Country Risk
The official dollar rose 5 pesos to a nominal record of 1,550 pesos to the US dollar at Banco Nación, TN said. The wholesale rate stood at 1,528 pesos to the dollar, Ámbito reported.
The wholesale dollar, used for trade and large deals, posted its fifth straight rise to a new record, Ámbito reported. The contado con liquidación rate, which Argentines use to move money abroad, stood at 1,648.52 pesos to the dollar, 7.9% above the official rate.
Central bank purchases have not stopped the climb. The bank bought US$46 million on Wednesday and about US$1.15 billion in October, lifting gross reserves to roughly US$50.2 billion, Infobae said.
Milei Blames Oil for Argentina Country Risk
President Milei said the rise in country risk does not point to a problem with his economic plan. In an interview with Spain’s El Observador he blamed US rates at 30-year highs and oil up from US$60 to US$110.
Milei said he inherited country risk near 3,000 points and called Argentina an aggressive “beta” asset that swings more than others. He added that when conditions normalise, Argentina will do much better.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Argentine dollar bonds, directly or through a fund, higher Argentina country risk means lower bond prices and a higher yield on paper. If you hold US-listed Argentine shares, the open on Thursday showed losses of 3.4% to 5.9% in Banco Macro, Tenaris and Ternium.
A win by Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s runoff on Sunday 25 October could send money into the region and ease the pressure, TN said. A similar lift after Brazil’s first round did not last.
Travellers see a different effect, because a record official rate makes Argentina cheaper for dollar holders. Retail prices in pesos can still rise with inflation, so the saving is not automatic.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Javier Milei a 48.0% chance of winning Argentina’s next presidential election (22 October, 1:57 p.m. ET). Peronist Buenos Aires province governor Axel Kicillof is second at 31.5%, and the market has drawn about US$1.08 million in bets.
A separate Polymarket question puts the chance that Milei leaves office before 2027 at 3.5%. These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on market news.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Where Argentina country risk will close on Thursday is not known. Analyst Pablo Lazzati sees 600 to 700 points in coming weeks, and more than 700 if US rates jump, according to Ámbito.
The government has not said whether it will sell dollar bonds before 2027 or how it will meet its IMF payments. It is also not known whether September activity will recover enough to avoid a technical recession.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Argentina country risk?
Argentina country risk is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of US Treasury bonds. Every 100 points equal one percentage point.
How high did Argentina country risk go on 22 October?
The JPMorgan index reached 709 points on Thursday 22 October, up 35 points from the previous close. It had closed Wednesday at 674 points after touching about 710 on Tuesday.
What is the official dollar rate in Argentina?
On Thursday 22 October the official dollar sold at 1,550 pesos to the US dollar at Banco Nación, a nominal record. The wholesale rate stood at 1,528 pesos to the dollar, according to Ámbito.
Why is Argentina country risk rising?
Weak August activity data, high US interest rates and doubts about 2027 financing are weighing on investors. Argentine shares in New York fell at the open, with Ternium down 5.9%.
How can Brazil’s election affect Argentine debt?
Analysts told TN that a win by Flávio Bolsonaro on Sunday 25 October could bring money into the region and ease Argentina’s risk. A similar effect after the first round did not last.
Sources: TN, 22 October 2026; Ámbito (dollar prices), 22 October 2026; Ámbito (bonds and shares), 21 October 2026; Infobae (debt market), 22 October 2026; Infobae (exchange gap), 22 October 2026; INDEC (monthly activity estimate), 21 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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