Argentina’s MERVAL Rebounds Sharply as Technicals Signal Relief Rally

Argentina’s S&P MERVAL Index closed June 24, 2025, at 2,064,589, climbing 4.5% from the previous session, according to official exchange data and TradingView charts.

This recovery comes after weeks of persistent selling and brings the index off its recent lows, though it remains 6.12% below its level at the start of the year.

The move stands out in a region where peers like Brazil’s Bovespa and Chile’s IPSA have shown more stability, and Peru’s BVL even led regional gains with a modest 0.65% rise.

The day’s rally developed amid a backdrop of mixed economic signals. Argentina’s economy grew just 0.8% in the first quarter, well below analyst expectations, but posted an annual increase of 5.8%.

Inflation slowed to 1.5% in May, marking a five-year low, while the peso held steady after recent interventions and a $20 billion IMF agreement. These fundamentals provided some breathing room, but did not spark broad optimism.

Technical analysis of the MERVAL’s 4-hour and daily charts reveals a market still in a fragile state. On the daily chart, the index bounced from the 1,977,000 support zone but remains well below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, both of which continue to slope downward.

The 4-hour chart shows a similar pattern, with prices rebounding but capped beneath key resistance levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 41.85 on the daily and 43.03 on the 4-hour, indicating neither oversold nor overbought conditions.

The MACD remains negative on both timeframes, but the histogram shows a slight reduction in bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands on both charts reveal the index moving away from the lower band, suggesting a pause in selling pressure, yet not a confirmed trend reversal.

Volume data shows no significant spike, indicating that the rally lacked strong institutional participation. Within the MERVAL, the biggest winners included Banco Macro and Grupo Financiero Galicia, both financials, which gained over 5% each.

Grupo Financiero Valores and BBVA followed closely, each up more than 5%. These gains reflect short-term bargain hunting in the sector most battered by recent monetary tightening.

On the losing side, Agrometal fell 3.04%, Sociedad Comercial del Plata dropped 0.97%, and Mirgor slipped 0.25%. Utilities and exporters, sensitive to currency and regulatory shifts, underperformed as uncertainty persisted.

Compared to regional peers, Argentina’s market remains volatile and underperforms in 2025. Brazil and Mexico trade near record highs, benefiting from lower valuations and easing monetary policy.

Argentina’s market, in contrast, remains exposed to domestic uncertainty, capital controls, and a lack of deep foreign participation. The MERVAL’s rebound offers short-term relief but does not signal a lasting trend change.

The technical picture remains cautious, with the index below all major moving averages and momentum indicators not yet confirming a sustained recovery. Investors continue to watch for policy clarity and macroeconomic stability before committing new capital to Argentine equities.