Argentina’s Milei Cheers Flávio’s Brazil Election Lead
ARGENTINA · FOREIGN POLICY
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Key Facts
- —The country Argentina, Brazil’s southern neighbour and Mercosur trade partner, is led by libertarian President Javier Milei, an open ally of the Bolsonaro family.
- —The background After Milei called Brazil’s President Lula a thief, Brazil downgraded diplomatic ties on 4 August, and both countries’ ambassadors left their posts.
- —Why now In the first round of the Brazil election on Sunday 4 October, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula, but short of a majority.
- —What happened Milei congratulated Flávio on X for a “historic election against the communist Lula” and said he hoped they would soon work together.
- —The numbers Trade between Argentina and Brazil reached US$31.2 billion in 2025, the highest since 2013, according to the Rosario Board of Trade.
- —What it means for you Buenos Aires analysts expect a firmer Brazilian real and a lift for Argentine assets if Flávio holds his lead.
- —Still open Flávio has not won the Brazil election: he faces Lula in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
Argentina’s President Javier Milei hailed Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead in the Brazil election as a “historic” result against “the communist Lula”. In a post on X on Sunday evening, 4 October, he said he hoped the two men would soon work together.
Flávio, a senator and eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of Lula but fell short of 50%. He has not won yet: the two meet again in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
What Milei Wrote
Milei opened his post with “La Libertad Avanza en Brasil”, or “Freedom advances in Brazil”. La Libertad Avanza is also the name of his own party.
He called Flávio a “dear friend”, according to the full post published by Infobae. “The American continent belongs to citizens who want to live in freedom,” he wrote.
He hoped Argentina and Brazil would remain “great trading, cultural and political partners”. The opportunities for both nations working together, he added, “are infinite”.
He signed off with his campaign cry, “Viva la libertad, carajo”, roughly “Long live freedom, damn it”. Milei followed the count from Olivos, the presidential residence outside Buenos Aires, MinutoUno reported.
A First-Round Lead, Not a Victory
With almost every ballot box counted, Flávio had 47.03% of valid votes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 45.16%. The gap is about 2.2 million votes, according to electoral court figures reported by Money Times.
A candidate in the Brazil election needs more than half of the valid votes to win outright. Full figures are in the first-round results of 4 October.
Quirno Doubts Lula Will Even Fight
Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno went further on Sunday night. On the LN+ television channel, he questioned whether Lula would even contest the runoff, La Nación reported.
Quirno asked whether Lula was going to “hand him a resounding victory”. Lula signalled the opposite in his speech on Sunday, saying he is “very good at the knockout stage”.
Quirno said the Brazil election result “will favour us in the economy, because we are going to be aligned in Mercosur”. Argentina, he added, never mixes campaign differences with institutional decisions.
Patricia Bullrich, a senator and former security minister, spoke of “a historic opportunity” for more trade and investment. Opposition figures took Lula’s side, among them former economy minister Sergio Massa, Perfil reported.
Why Brazil Matters to Argentina
Brazil has been Argentina’s main trading partner without interruption since 1991, Infobae reported in July. Trade between the two reached US$31.2 billion in 2025, the highest since 2013.
Argentina sold Brazil goods worth US$12.8 billion and bought US$18.4 billion, a deficit of about US$5.7 billion. Wheat was the largest farm export, at US$1.2 billion, the Rosario Board of Trade calculated.
In the first half of 2026, Brazil took 12.6% of Argentine exports, just ahead of China and the United States. It supplied 22.3% of Argentina’s imports, slightly less than China.
Car trade runs under a bilateral automotive agreement that lasts until June 2029. Brazil is also the fourth-largest source of foreign direct investment in Argentina, Infobae noted.
What the City Expects
The City, as Buenos Aires calls its financial district, sees Flávio as “the preferred candidate of financiers in both countries”. That was the view of analyst Christian Buteler, quoted by iProfesional.
Leonardo Chialva, a partner at Delphos Investment, said a Bolsonaro government makes “stability or appreciation of the real” more likely. “That takes pressure off us,” he told iProfesional.
A stronger real makes Argentine goods relatively cheaper than Brazilian ones and helps bring in tourists. Analyst Gustavo Ber expects “an initial positive reaction” in Argentine assets, pending more clarity on the Brazil election’s consequences.
Those are forecasts, made before Buenos Aires trading opens on Monday 5 October. By iProfesional’s count, country risk, the premium Argentine bonds pay over US Treasuries, climbed from 408 to 655 points in 70 days.
Mercosur and a Frozen Relationship
Mercosur is the South American trade bloc whose two main members are Brazil and Argentina. Aligned governments would put more weight on trade and investment and less on politics, iProfesional expects.
The diplomatic ties are another matter. At Flávio’s campaign launch in São Paulo on 25 July, Milei called Lula a “thief” and a “jailbird”, La Nación reported.
On 4 August Brazil downgraded ties to chargé d’affaires level, meaning a lower-ranking diplomat, and did not send its ambassador back. Argentina’s ambassador left Brasília days later, and opposition lawmakers flew to Brasília to repair ties.
There is also a catch for Milei in Washington. Argentine diplomats fear a Bolsonaro government would rival him for Donald Trump’s favour, a risk set out on 4 October.
What Comes Next
The runoff on Sunday 25 October settles the Brazil election. Until then, Milei’s message is a political bet, not a trade or diplomatic agreement.
Neither ambassador had returned by 2 October, La Nación reported. A Lula victory would leave Milei facing a government whose budget deficit he likened in September to Argentina’s 2001 crisis.
Flávio had said he would invite Milei to Brazil if he won, Ámbito noted. That invitation now depends on the result of 25 October.
For investors, the next signal is how the real and Argentine bonds trade this week. For Brazil’s own markets, see the real and Ibovespa outlook for the runoff.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
What did Milei say about the Brazil election?
He congratulated Flávio Bolsonaro on X for a “historic election against the communist Lula”. He said he hoped they would soon work together to keep Argentina and Brazil close trading, cultural and political partners.
Has Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil’s presidency?
No. He led the first round of the Brazil election on 4 October with about 47% of valid votes against Lula’s 45%. The two meet in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
Why does the Brazil election matter for Argentina?
Brazil is Argentina’s main trading partner, with US$31.2 billion in two-way trade in 2025. A friendlier government in Brasília could ease the diplomatic freeze, and a firmer real would help Argentine exporters.
Are Argentina and Brazil on speaking terms?
Only at a lower level. Brazil cut relations to chargé d’affaires level on 4 August, after Milei called Lula a thief. Neither country had an ambassador back in place by early October.
Sources: Infobae, 4 October 2026; Ámbito, 4 October 2026; La Nación, 5 October 2026; iProfesional, 4 October 2026; iProfesional, 4 October 2026; Money Times, 4 October 2026; Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario, 29 May 2026; Infobae, 26 July 2026; La Nación, 2 October 2026; El Economista, 5 August 2026; Perfil, 4 October 2026; MinutoUno, 4 October 2026; ABC Mais, 4 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief