Brazil Runoff Set; Ibovespa Entered Vote at 192,115
Key Facts
—Who. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) go to a runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026, after neither passed 50% of valid votes on 4 October.
—What. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) count at 99.99% of sections gives Flávio 47.03% and Lula 45.16%. Brazilian assets were already higher into the vote: the Ibovespa gained 2.63% on Friday 2 October.
—Why it matters. US investors hold Brazil mainly through ADRs and ETFs. The Petrobras ADR (PBR) closed Friday at US$21.65, the Vale ADR (VALE) at US$13.76 and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) at US$38.19.
—Timing. TSE figures are from 1:56 a.m. Brasília time on Monday 5 October (12:56 a.m. Eastern, just before 1 a.m., and 5:56 a.m. in Lisbon). Market prices are Friday closes from EODHD. Monday’s reaction is not yet known.
Live results
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The official TSE count for president, governors and the Senate, with every candidate’s share and the state map, updated every 20 minutes.
Brazil’s runoff pairing is set, and US investors will see the first market verdict when Brazilian trading opens on Monday. The TSE count puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.03% and Lula at 45.16% of valid votes, with all but one of 499,248 sections counted. The two meet again on Sunday 25 October.
Brazilian assets went into the vote on a rally. The Ibovespa, the main stock index, rose 2.63% on Friday to 192,114.55 points. The Brazilian real ended at R$5.21 per US$1, or about 19 US cents.
How Brazilian Assets Closed Before the Vote
These are the last prices before the first-round result. They are Friday 2 October closes from EODHD, and none of them reflects the count. Brazilian markets were shut over the weekend and the US market is closed until Monday.
| Asset | Close, Fri 2 Oct | Day change | Thu 1 Oct close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 192,114.55 | +2.63% | 187,197.46 |
| Real per US$1 | R$5.2133 | −0.08% (real firmer) | R$5.2176 |
| EWZ (Brazil ETF) | US$38.19 | +2.83% | US$37.14 |
| Petrobras ADR (PBR) | US$21.65 | +3.19% | US$20.98 |
| Vale ADR (VALE) | US$13.76 | +2.30% | US$13.45 |
Source: EODHD daily closes. The real is quoted as reais per US dollar, so a lower figure means a stronger real.
The move was broad. The Ibovespa is about 5% above its 28 September close of 182,991.13, and EWZ is up about 5.5% from 36.21 that day. EWZ volume on Friday was 59.9 million shares, against 34.7 million on Thursday.
Our
Friday market report has the session in detail. What the data cannot say is why prices rose. Friday’s close came before any vote was counted, so it shows positioning, not a reaction to the result.
What the First Round Settled, and What It Did Not
The TSE count at 99.99% of sections shows Flávio with 56.10 million votes and Lula with 53.88 million, a gap of 2.23 million. No other candidate has more than 2.89% (Augusto Cury). Because no one has more than half of valid votes, the constitution requires a second round.
The count answers who is in the runoff. It does not say who wins it. For markets, the open question is the 25 October result and what each camp would do on spending and the budget. The first-round results report has the full national count, and our Senate report shows the Congress the winner will face.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+2.63%
192,114.55
+2.63%
64,531.68
+1.10%
10,916.57
+0.08%
2,767,663
+0.32%
2,515.02
-0.59%
59,751.67
+0.18%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 192,114.55 | +2.63% | +21.85% | 187,197.46 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Who Is Who
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, leading the count on the right.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): the sitting president, on the left, seeking another term.
Superior Electoral Court (TSE): the body that runs the election and publishes the official count.
Why It Matters for the US
Most American money in Brazil sits in a few places. An ADR (American depositary receipt) is a US-listed certificate for a foreign share. PBR and VALE are the best-known Brazilian ones. EWZ is an exchange-traded fund that holds a basket of Brazilian stocks. All three trade in dollars but follow Brazilian prices and the real.
That makes the real a second variable. A US holder of EWZ gains when Brazilian shares rise, and also when the real strengthens against the dollar. Both depend on how investors read the next three weeks of campaigning.
What to Watch This Week
Brazilian trading on B3 opens at 10:00 Brasília time on Monday, which is 9:00 a.m. Eastern. That is before the New York open at 9:30 a.m., so the Ibovespa and the real give the first clue. PBR, VALE and EWZ then trade from 9:30 a.m. Eastern.
The data calendar is also busy. The S&P Global Brazil composite PMI for September is due at 10:00 a.m. Brasília time Monday, after 49.1 in August. A reading below 50 signals a shrinking private sector. The September trade balance follows on Tuesday 6 October, and the IPCA consumer price index on Friday 9 October.
What Is Not Known
How markets react on Monday. Whether Friday’s gains were tied to the vote or to wider moves in emerging markets. The final TSE count, since one section was still outstanding. And how the 33.5 million registered voters who did not vote on 4 October will behave on 25 October.
Who is in Brazil’s presidential runoff?
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and President Lula (PT). The TSE count at 99.99% of sections gives Flávio 47.03% and Lula 45.16% of valid votes. The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026.
How did Brazilian assets close before the vote?
On Friday 2 October the Ibovespa rose 2.63% to 192,114.55. The real closed at R$5.2133 per US$1. EWZ closed at US$38.19, the Petrobras ADR at US$21.65 and the Vale ADR at US$13.76.
What is an ADR?
An American depositary receipt is a certificate traded in the United States that represents shares of a foreign company. Petrobras and Vale both have ADRs listed in New York.
When can US investors react to the result?
Brazil’s B3 exchange opens at 10:00 a.m. Brasília time on Monday 5 October, or 9:00 a.m. Eastern. The New York market opens at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.
Related: Brazil election explained · governors report · turnout report
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This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief