A Bolsonaro Victory in Brazil Could Cost Argentina’s Milei Trump’s Favour
ARGENTINA · FOREIGN POLICY
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina, South America’s second-largest economy, is led by libertarian Javier Milei, Donald Trump’s closest political ally in the region.
- —The background In October 2025 the US Treasury backed Milei with a US$20 billion currency swap, a sign of his standing in Washington.
- —Why now Brazil votes today, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is challenging President Lula.
- —What happened iProfesional reported on Saturday 3 October that Argentine diplomats fear a Bolsonaro victory would pull Trump’s attention towards Brazil.
- —The numbers Brazil is Argentina’s biggest trading partner, with US$31.2 billion in two-way trade in 2025.
- —What it means for you A Bolsonaro victory could thaw Argentina’s feud with Brazil but dilute Milei’s privileged access in Washington.
- —Still open Polls show a tight race, and a runoff on 25 October is possible if no one wins a majority today.
A Bolsonaro victory in Brazil would hand Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, an ideological ally next door. It could also cost him his special place with Donald Trump, the Argentine news site iProfesional argued on Saturday 3 October.
The candidate is Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who faces President Lula on Sunday. Milei has openly backed him, while his own relations with Lula have collapsed.
The Diplomats’ Worry
The analysis, by political writer Mariano Obarrio, rests on sources in Argentina’s foreign ministry. “If Bolsonaro wins, the United States will give more room to Bolsonaro than to Milei,” one source told him.
The reason, the source said, is that “Brazil weighs more as a country and because of the size of its economy”.
Inside Milei’s government the preference is still clear. “They would love Bolsonaro to win,” officials at the Casa Rosada, the presidential palace, told iProfesional.
According to the same report, Milei is wary of intervening in the campaign directly. He has not ruled out a trip to Brazil if the first round goes Flávio Bolsonaro’s way.
Why Brazil’s Size Matters
Brazil has about 213 million people, more than four times Argentina’s population, and the largest economy in Latin America. After a Bolsonaro victory, a like-minded government there would be a far bigger prize for Washington than Buenos Aires.
A separate analysis by the Argentine outlet TotalNews made the same point. It quoted Benjamin Gedan of the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, who called Flávio Bolsonaro “as MAGA as Milei”.
Gedan, a former White House adviser on South America, said Flávio is “equally committed” to becoming Washington’s main South American ally. Flávio has promised that Brazil would join the Shield of the Americas, a US-backed security pact that Argentina already belongs to.
Milei Has Bet Openly on Flávio
Milei has not hidden his preference: on 25 July he joined Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign launch in São Paulo. There, La Nación reported, he called Flávio a friend and Lula a “thief”.
The feud has cost Argentina dearly in diplomacy. In August Brazil downgraded its diplomatic representation in Buenos Aires, and neither ambassador has returned to post, according to La Nación.
Flávio has courted Argentina in return, promising in June that Brazil would “return to being a brother to Argentina”. His economic coordinator, Daniella Marques, has said his plan draws on Milei’s approach.
Trade Ties Raise the Stakes
Whatever the politics, the two economies are tightly linked. Two-way trade reached US$31.2 billion in 2025, a 13-year high, according to the Rosario Board of Trade.
Argentina sold Brazil goods worth US$12.8 billion and bought US$18.4 billion, leaving a deficit of about US$5.7 billion. Cars, car parts, wheat and fuel make up much of that flow, Forbes Argentina reported.
Those flows give both governments a reason to repair ties. A Bolsonaro victory could end the diplomatic freeze, while a Lula win would leave Milei facing a neighbour he has repeatedly insulted.
What a Bolsonaro Victory Would Not Mean
The worry in Buenos Aires is a judgement by unnamed officials, not a signal from Washington. Trump has not endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, Time reported, though he calls Brazil’s vote very important.
iProfesional itself describes a double effect rather than a loss. Milei would gain a like-minded partner next door, even if he has to share Trump’s attention with a much bigger country.
What Comes Next
Polls in Brazil close at 17:00 Brasília time, also 17:00 in Buenos Aires and 20:00 UTC. Results start arriving within hours, and the final polls point to a close first round.
If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the top two meet again on 25 October. Until then, a Bolsonaro victory remains a scenario that Milei’s diplomats are already pricing in.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
He is a Brazilian senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He is the main right-wing challenger to President Lula in the 2026 election.
Why could a Bolsonaro victory hurt Milei?
Argentine diplomats quoted by iProfesional fear that after a Bolsonaro victory, Washington would favour Brazil, a far bigger country and economy. Milei could lose his position as Trump’s main partner in South America.
How important is Brazil to Argentina’s economy?
Brazil is Argentina’s biggest trading partner. Two-way trade reached US$31.2 billion in 2025, according to the Rosario Board of Trade.
Has Trump endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro?
No. Trump has said Brazil’s election is very important and that he is following it closely. He received Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House in May 2026 but has made no formal endorsement.
Sources: iProfesional, 3 October 2026; TotalNews, 3 October 2026; La Nación, 2 October 2026; Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario, 29 May 2026; Forbes Argentina, 27 July 2026; Time, 2 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief