Key Facts
- The Merval, Argentina’s main stock index, fell 1.76% to close at 3,100,732 points on Thursday, dragged lower by financial and energy shares.
- The peso weakened to 1,499.50 per US dollar, a move of 0.2% that places the currency right at the weakest point of its 52-week range.
- Country risk, a measure of the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine debt, spiked over 4% to 446 basis points, reflecting fresh caution after the central bank ruled out a debtors’ bailout.
- YPF, the state-controlled oil producer, rallied 2% as the company confirmed it raised US$405 million selling two mature oil fields to Pérez Companc’s Pecom.
- The move mirrored a cautious global session where all major US benchmarks edged lower after a quiet session on Wall Street.
Today’s Focus
The Merval extended its decline on Thursday, losing 1.76% as debt-risk premiums widened. The index closed at 3,100,732 points.
The peso continued to edge toward the bottom of its managed trading band, touching 1,499.50 per dollar. That level marks the weakest quote seen over the past 52 weeks.
Sentiment was rattled by the central bank’s blunt message: there will be no state rescue for households falling behind on loans. The remarks pushed country risk up to 446 basis points.
YPF provided a rare bright spot, gaining 2% after confirming a US$405 million asset sale that advances its strategic pivot away from mature conventional fields.
What matters today. The central bank’s hardline stance on non-performing loans is testing investor confidence in the broader Milei reform narrative.
01 The session in one read
The Buenos Aires stock market fell for a second straight day on Thursday, with the Merval index—Argentina’s benchmark equity gauge—shedding 1.76% to settle at 3,100,732 points. The drop came alongside a modest but psychologically significant softening of the peso, which closed at 1,499.50 per US dollar, the weakest level of its 52-week trading range.
Trading was coloured by a sharp rise in Argentina’s country-risk premium, a measure that tracks the extra return investors demand to hold the nation’s bonds compared to US Treasuries. The JPMorgan-compiled index jumped more than 4% to 446 basis points, putting it firmly back on traders’ radar screens.
The catalyst was a sobering presentation by Santiago Bausili, president of the Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), the country’s central bank. Bausili told journalists that the rise in bank delinquency was a ‘slow digestion’ that would take nine months to work through, and he categorically ruled out a government bailout for indebted households.
His message—that the adjustment is shifting from prices to the real economy—rattled banking stocks. Yet the session was not uniformly negative: YPF, the state-controlled oil company, rallied 2% after announcing the successful sale of two mature oil fields in Mendoza province, raising US$405 million to refocus on its high-growth Vaca Muerta shale operations.
The Milei administration’s economic programme is built on fiscal austerity, tight money, and a sacrifice of short-term consumption for long-term stability. Central bank chief Santiago Bausili reinforced that blueprint this week, rejecting any reduction in reserve requirements and describing the clean-up of bad loans as a nine-month ‘slow digestion’. That discipline is positive for long-term bondholders but creates friction for banks and consumers in the immediate term. The variable to watch is whether country risk stabilises below 450 basis points or continues its recent drift higher, which would signal that the market is losing patience with the pace of microeconomic recovery.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval index | 3,100,732 | −1.76% | Broad-market retreat led by banks |
| S&P 500 | 7,710 | −0.18% | Muted Wall Street session |
| USD/ARS (peso) | 1,499.50 | +0.2% | Touches 52-week weakest point |
| Argentina country risk | 446 bps | +4% | Highest in recent weeks |
| US 10-year yield | 4.681% | +1.39% | Rates drift higher globally |
The Merval’s 1.76% decline was the standout move across Latin America on a day when most regional indices were mixed. The peso’s quote of 1,499.50 per dollar puts the exchange rate near the top of its 52-week trading band—a managed float where the central bank allows a controlled crawl amid its tight monetary framework.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 slipped a modest 0.18%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.06%. The VIX, often called the ‘fear gauge’ because it measures expected stock-market volatility, fell 4.17% to 15.15, suggesting that the anxiety driving Argentine assets was homegrown rather than imported. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,848,945
—
-10.97%
2,859,051
—
—
—
USD/ARS
1,545
-0.03%
+8.82%
1,546
1,545
1,545
—
YPF
6,505
+0.46%
+15.44%
6,475
6,675
6,360
708,971
GGAL
4,950
-0.95%
-40.39%
4,998
5,140
4,933
548,462
PAMPA
4,290
+0.29%
-17.29%
4,278
4,390
4,235
351,604
TXAR
693.00
-1.28%
-19.41%
702.00
709.50
673.50
619,637
ALUAR
774.50
+0.58%
-29.51%
770.00
784.50
771.00
192,215
TGS
7,240
-0.55%
-17.93%
7,280
7,450
7,120
44,794
CEPU
1,678
+1.76%
-25.09%
1,649
1,678
1,600
129,716
MIRGOR
1,740
+0.00%
-92.00%
1,740
1,780
1,695
3,523
COME
31.18
+2.20%
-49.58%
30.51
31.40
30.76
3,810,293
LOMA NEGRA
2,978
+1.79%
-12.78%
2,925
3,003
2,853
34,896
BYMA
198.00
+0.00%
-32.82%
198.00
201.25
193.50
2,776,937
TELECOM ARG
3,340
-1.18%
-8.15%
3,380
3,490
3,293
11,295
GLOBANT
48.84
+3.02%
-22.36%
47.41
48.86
46.75
706,761
MERCADOLIBRE
1,490
-2.77%
-29.02%
1,533
1,523
1,470
584,446
03 Why it moved — BCRA’s tough-love message jars with the market
Thursday’s decline was driven mostly by a repricing of Argentina’s financial stocks after BCRA president Bausili’s monetary-policy presentation. He explicitly rejected calls to lower reserve requirements on banks—a measure that would have freed up cash for lending—and said the priority remained accumulating central-bank reserves to anchor the peso.
Bausili also dismissed the idea of a ‘Plan Platita’, a colloquial Argentine term for a populist cash-splash ahead of elections. His language was clinical: the state would not intervene between banks and their delinquent borrowers. For a market that has grown accustomed to thinking the Milei administration has political pressures under control, the remarks were a sharp reminder that the real economy is still absorbing the shock of austerity.
Local media reported that Argentine households hold roughly US$7 billion in idle dollar deposits that cannot easily be lent out under the current regulatory framework. With bad loans rising, the banks are caught between restrictive rules and a central bank that is unwilling to ease. Grupo Financiero Galicia fell 3.5%, making it one of the session’s biggest drags by turnover, while Banco Macro also came under pressure.
A separate survey from the BCRA showed that private economists now expect July inflation at 2%, with a break below that threshold in the months ahead—good news on the surface. But the same survey pencilled in only modest GDP growth, and traders are increasingly focused on the lagged effect of the tight-money policy on corporate earnings.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| MELI (MercadoLibre) | CEDEAR | −5.3% | US e-commerce tracker under global tech pressure |
| GGAL (Grupo Galicia) | $9m turnover | −3.5% | Financial sector hit hardest on credit fears |
| YPFD (YPF) | $7m turnover | +2.0% | Rallied on US$405mn asset-sale confirmation |
| PAMP (Pampa Energía) | $4m turnover | −2.4% | Utility sold off in defensive rotation |
| TXR (Ternium) | Local listing | −3.4% | Steelmaker fell on global demand concerns |
The most-traded name on the Buenos Aires floor was actually a cross-listed security: the CEDEAR tracker for MercadoLibre (MELI), the Latin American e-commerce giant whose primary listing is on the Nasdaq. Its 0.1% drop reflected global tech weakness rather than a local story, and we label it explicitly as a cross-listed tracker to avoid confusing it with a domestic company.
Among true local stocks, Grupo Galicia saw the heaviest turnover among decliners, falling 3.5% as investors recalibrated bank exposure after the BCRA’s tough-love message. YPF provided the counterweight, rising 2% on solid volume after confirming it had closed the sale of two conventional fields to Pecom, a deal that advances its strategy of concentrating capital on Vaca Muerta shale.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Merval | Argentina | −1.76% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −1.23% |
| IPSA | Chile | +1.05% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | +0.24% |
| BVL Perú | Peru | +0.81% |
Argentina was the worst performer among the five regional benchmarks we track, though it had company on the downside from Brazil. The Ibovespa—Brazil’s main stock index—fell 1.23% to 175,546 points, pressured by a combination of commodity weakness and the still-elevated Selic benchmark interest rate of 14.00%.
Chile’s IPSA bucked the trend with a 1.05% gain to 11,275 points, while Colombia’s COLCAP edged 0.24% higher and Peru added 0.81%. The live market board embedded above carries the official closing prints for all regional markets; our table distills the verified numbers into a quick comparative read.
06 The technical picture
The Merval closed at 3,100,732 points, a level that places it firmly within a consolidation range that has held for several sessions. The index is attempting to hold above the psychologically significant 3.1-million mark, and a break below that level on strong volume would open the path toward the next visible support.
The peso’s close at 1,499.50 per dollar sits near the 52-week high for the exchange rate—meaning it is among the weakest levels of the past year. The 52-week range is 1,300 to 1,500, and the current quote near the top of that band is a threshold that traders are watching closely for any sign of an acceleration in the official crawl rate.
07 What to watch
- Country risk trajectory: The jump to 446 basis points needs watching. If it pushes toward 450-460 in coming sessions, financial stocks could see another leg lower.
- YPF asset-sale momentum: The US$405 million deal removes two mature fields from the portfolio. Investors will watch for further ‘Plan Andes’ divestments that can fund Vaca Muerta development.
- BCRA reserve accumulation: Bausili made clear that reserve-building remains the priority over easing bank regulations. Weekly reserve data will show whether the central bank is making progress.
- July inflation print: Economists expect 2%. A print at or below that level would support the disinflation narrative, but the market is increasingly asking what growth will look like on the other side.
Background: Argentina’s YPF Executes Stock Split in Push for Global Top 20.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Merval?
The Merval is Argentina’s benchmark stock index. It tracks the largest companies trading on the Buenos Aires stock exchange, weighted by market value and trading volume.
Why did country risk jump?
Country risk rose after the central bank president said there would be no state bailout for households struggling with bank loans, and that the clean-up of bad debt would take nine months. Investors interpreted the message as a sign that economic pain will linger.
What is a CEDEAR?
A CEDEAR is an Argentine depositary receipt—a peso- or dollar-denominated certificate that tracks a foreign stock and trades on the Buenos Aires exchange. MELI, for example, is a CEDEAR that follows the US-listed shares of MercadoLibre.
Why did YPF rise when everything else fell?
YPF confirmed it raised US$405 million selling two mature oil fields in Mendoza province. The deal is part of a strategy to exit older conventional assets and redirect capital to the high-growth Vaca Muerta shale formation.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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