Gold Falls 2.4% as US Bond Yields Near 5% | Global Economy, Nov 11
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
Key Facts
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, prices a quarter-point (25-basis-point) Fed rate increase on 8–9 December at 85.5% (11:14 pm ET, 10 November).
- US stocks slipped on Tuesday: the S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,521 and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.983%.
- Gold fell 2.41% to US$4,039 an ounce as higher yields and a firmer dollar raised the cost of holding it.
- US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October after seasonal adjustment, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Brazil’s Selic rate, the country’s benchmark interest rate, stands at 13.75%; the October inflation report is due Thursday.
The Big Three
- US yields press against 5% The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.983% (+2.45%) while the dollar index climbed to 102.2 (+0.6%). A worsening external environment is the pressure Brazil’s central bank has already flagged.
- Gold takes the hit Spot gold fell 2.41% to $4,039 an ounce as higher yields raised the cost of holding it. Equities slipped far less: the S&P 500 closed at 7,521 (-0.38%).
- Brazil inflation print is the local test Thursday’s October IPCA is expected at 4.74% over twelve months, up from 4.58%. A hot number would back the Selic hold at 13.75% and push back any talk of renewed cuts.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial crude stocks, week to 30 Oct (EIA) | 409.8m bbl | 410.7m bbl | Draw of 0.9m barrels |
| Distillate stocks (EIA) | 99.3m bbl | 102.9m bbl | Draw of 3.6m; tight diesel and heating oil |
| Gasoline stocks (EIA) | 209.0m bbl | 209.2m bbl | Small draw |
| Continuing jobless claims (Thu) | Est 1,720k | 1,718k | Due Thursday; steady labour market expected |
| Jobless claims 4-week average (Thu) | Est 192.5k | 194.75k | Due Thursday; low layoffs expected |
| Existing home sales (Thu) | Est 3.98m | 3.99m | Due Thursday; flat at best with mortgages at 7.18% |
| 30-year bond auction (Thu) | Prior 5.618% | 5.618% | Due Thursday; a test of demand near 5% on the 10-year |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| France unemployment rate, Q3 | 8.2% | 8.3% | Better than the 8.4% consensus |
| UK BRC retail sales monitor, Oct (y/y) | 1.1% | 1.0% | Marginally below the 1.2% consensus |
| Germany current account (Thu) | Est 15.5 | 10.3 | Due Thursday; a wider surplus is expected |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| China exports, Oct (y/y) | 35.2% | 36.3% | Beat the 33.5% consensus |
| China imports, Oct (y/y) | 41.6% | 31% | Far above the 32% consensus; strong demand |
| China trade balance, Oct (US$ bn) | 105.28 | 133.53 | Missed the 125.8 consensus on the import surge |
| Japan Eco Watchers current, Oct | 46.1 | 47.0 | Missed the 46.8 consensus |
| Japan Eco Watchers outlook, Oct | 46.5 | 47.4 | Missed the 47.8 consensus |
| Japan 30-year JGB auction yield | 3.847% | 4.109% | Lower yield than the prior auction |
| Brazil IPCA inflation, Oct, monthly (Thu) | Est 0.26% | 0.82% | Due Thursday; sharp slowdown expected |
| Brazil IPCA inflation, Oct, 12 months (Thu) | Est 4.74% | 4.58% | Due Thursday; further above the 4.5% ceiling |
| Mexico industrial production (Wed) | Est 0.5% m/m | 0.69% | Due Wednesday; year-on-year seen at 3.5% |
| Argentina inflation, monthly (Thu) | Est 1.8% | 1.9% | Due Thursday; slow easing expected |
| Argentina inflation, annual (Thu) | Est 32.7% | 33.4% | Due Thursday; keeps falling |
| Peru rate decision (Thu) | Prior 4.25% | 4.25% | Due Thursday |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,521 | -0.38% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 171,337 | -0.52% |
| USD/BRL | 5.5833 | +1.36% |
Source: market close, 10 November 2026.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Wednesday, November 11, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | US | Veterans Day | — | — |
| 06:00 | JP | Machine Tool Orders | 54.5 | 60.4 |
| 07:00 | CN | Vehicle Sales | -6.7 | -8.4 |
| 08:20 | DE | Bundesbank Nagel Speech | — | — |
| 10:00 | US | OPEC Monthly Report | — | — |
| 10:30 | DE | 30-Year Bund Auction | — | 3.67 |
| 11:30 | CL | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | — | — |
| 12:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Market Index | — | 192.6 |
| 12:00 | MX | Industrial Production | 0.5 | 0.69 |
| 12:00 | MX | Industrial Production | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| 12:00 | US | MBA Purchase Index | — | 131.4 |
| 12:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.2 |
| 12:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Refinance Index | — | 517.5 |
| 12:00 | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | — | 7.3 |
| 12:00 | BR | Brazilian Service Sector Growth | — | 0.6 |
| 12:00 | BR | Brazilian Service Sector Growth | — | -0.1 |
| 16:00 | BR | Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | — | 54.07 |
| 16:00 | MX | Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | — | 52.75 |
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,521 | -0.38% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 27,741 | -0.60% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 52,232 | -0.30% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 2,821 | -0.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.9830 | +2.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 19.46 | -2.31% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,347 | +0.31% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,752 | -0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,279 | +0.55% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 658.32 | +0.27% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 61,131 | +1.11% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 24,335 | -0.90% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 5,328 | +1.69% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,047 | -0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 25,338 | +1.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,170 | -0.76% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,053 | +0.56% | -1.68% | 4,030 | 4,061 | 4,034 | 18,087 |
| SILVER | 52.37 | +2.48% | +4.37% | 51.10 | 52.50 | 51.42 | 7,195 |
01 Yields touch the 5% line, and gold pays
Wall Street slipped in the latest session. The S&P 500 closed at 7,521 (-0.38%), the Dow at 52,232 (-0.30%) and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,066 (-0.74%).
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.983% (+2.45%), a hair below 5%. The dollar index climbed to 102.2 (+0.6%), and gold fell 2.41% to $4,039 an ounce.
Gold pays no interest, so a higher yield and a firmer dollar hit it hardest. The VIX eased to 19.46 (-2.31%), which reads as repricing rather than panic.
US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October after seasonal adjustment, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said, but it could not publish a 12-month rate because of a gap in 2025 data. The CPI s.a. index was forecast at 337 against 336.3 before, while the core inflation rate and the Cleveland CPI readings are not yet in our calendar feed.
Energy supply is tightening quietly. The EIA reported commercial crude stocks at 409.8 million barrels for the week to 30 October, down 0.9 million, and distillates at 99.3 million, down 3.6 million (eia.gov).
02 The Fed speaks six times on Thursday
Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Schmid and Williams all speak on Thursday. With the 10-year near 5%, investors will listen for any sign that officials accept tighter financial conditions.
The Treasury also sells 30-year bonds, and the previous auction cleared at 5.618%. A weak sale would push long yields higher and add to the pressure on emerging markets.
The budget balance is expected at a deficit of 298, against 27 the previous month. That is a reminder of how much debt Washington still has to place.
Housing already feels the strain. The 30-year mortgage rate stood at 7.18% in the prior reading, and existing home sales are forecast at 3.98 million, against 3.99 million.
03 Brazil: a Selic on hold, and a dollar that will not help
On 4 November Copom held the Selic at 13.75%, ending five straight quarter-point cuts. The vote was unanimous, and the bank urged “serenity and caution” while citing a worsening external environment.
A yield near 5% in Washington and a stronger dollar are exactly that pressure. They make it harder for Brazil to cut without weakening the real.
Inflation leaves little room anyway. IPCA stood at 4.58% in the twelve months to September, above the 4.5% ceiling of the tolerance band, and the Focus survey sees 5.2% for 2026.
Thursday’s October IPCA is forecast at 0.26% for the month and 4.74% over twelve months. Copom meets again on 8 and 9 December, and a hot print would make a hold the base case.
China offers a counterweight for commodity exporters. October imports rose 41.6% from a year earlier, against a 32% consensus, while exports grew 35.2%.
Strong buying from Asia helps Brazil, though the narrower trade surplus of US$105.28 billion (712.78 billion yuan, against 859 billion expected) shows how much of it is inbound.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on the December Fed decision, with about US$24.9 million traded, prices a 25-basis-point increase at 85.5%, up from 79.5% on 9 November, a move of 50 basis points or more at 11.1% and no change at 3.6%. Prices are bets, not polls; stand 11:14 pm ET on 10 November 2026.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What to watch today and this week
- Thursday: Six Fed speakers from 14:00 Lisbon (Hammack first, Williams last at 23:30), plus the 30-year Treasury auction at 18:00. Brazil publishes October IPCA at 12:00, with Argentina inflation and Peru’s rate decision also due.
- Friday: No scheduled release in our calendar. Watch whether the 10-year yield holds below 5% after the 30-year auction, and whether gold steadies near $4,039.
- Next week: Brazilian inflation expectations in the Focus survey, and the first read on how Thursday’s IPCA shifts bets on the 9 December Copom meeting.
- Ongoing: A worsening external environment, a firm dollar and Brazil’s inflation above its 4.5% ceiling. All three limit how far the Selic can fall from 13.75%.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does gold fall when Treasury yields rise?
Gold pays no interest, so a higher yield makes holding it costlier. A firmer dollar adds to the pressure, as it makes gold dearer for foreign buyers.
Why do US yields matter for Brazil?
Higher Treasury yields draw money away from emerging markets and tend to weaken the real. That limits how far the central bank can cut the Selic.
What is the Selic rate now?
Copom held it at 13.75% on 4 November, ending five consecutive quarter-point cuts. The vote was unanimous.
Is Brazilian inflation under control?
Not yet. IPCA was 4.58% in the twelve months to September, above the 4.5% ceiling, and Thursday’s October reading is forecast at 4.74%.
When is the next Copom meeting?
Copom meets next on 9 December 2026. Policy is expected to stay restrictive, according to the bank’s own statement.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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