Key Facts
- The Merval, Argentina’s main stock index, rose 1.14% to 3,122,064 points buoyed by a sharp rally in oil giant YPF.
- YPF shares jumped 3.6% on second-quarter net profit of US$1.205 billion and confirmation it will accelerate investment in the Vaca Muerta shale formation.
- Argentine country risk, measured by the JPMorgan EMBI+ spread, widened to 465 basis points and the parallel exchange rate faced pressure, putting a brake on broader gains.
- Banks ended mixed with Grupo Galicia up 0.6% and Banco Macro adding 0.9% while energy distributor Central Puerto slipped 0.9%.
- Ternium Argentina, known locally by its ticker TXAR, was the session’s top gainer soaring 5.5% as steelmakers caught a bid worldwide.
Today’s Focus
Energy giant YPF anchored Monday’s session after reporting a record quarterly profit and vowing to pump more capital into the Vaca Muerta shale play — news that sent its US-traded shares soaring overnight. The local CEDEAR, a peso-denominated certificate representing that foreign line, carried the momentum into Buenos Aires, climbing 3.7%.
That alone gave the Merval index enough fuel to add 1.14% and close at 3,122,064 points, brushing off a bumpy day for sovereign bonds. Argentina’s country risk — the premium investors demand to hold its debt over safe US Treasuries — ticked up to 465 points, a signal that worries over the central bank’s dwindling reserves haven’t disappeared.
The peso barely budged in formal trading, slipping 0.04% to 1,498 per dollar, hugging the top of its tightly managed trading band. What mattered for equity traders wasn’t the currency’s drift but the math of how a weaker, parallel peso translates into higher local-currency revenues for exporters like YPF.
What matters today. YPF’s record profit and accelerated Vaca Muerta spending shielded the market from a broader debt sell-off, but country risk at 465 points keeps the mood cautious.
01 The session in one read
Argentina’s stock market pushed higher on Monday, almost entirely on the strength of one name: YPF. The state-controlled oil producer vaulted 3.7% after reporting a US$1.2 billion quarterly profit and pledging to speed up drilling in Vaca Muerta, the Patagonian shale formation that holds some of the world’s largest recoverable oil and gas reserves.
The rally lifted the Merval index, which tracks the largest and most liquid Argentine companies, 1.14% to 3,122,064 points. The advance came despite a rough day for sovereign debt, where prices slipped and pushed the country risk gauge up to 465 basis points.
Selling in bonds was concentrated in dollar-denominated issues, reflecting unease over how long Argentina can sustain its currency anchor — the managed crawl of the official peso — without burning through more foreign reserves. The official peso barely moved, slipping a tiny 0.04% to 1,498 per dollar.
On the broader board, winners outnumbered losers, though trading volumes remained thin for a Monday in August. Investors rotated into energy and materials exporters while trimming bets on utilities and domestic-facing stocks, a pattern consistent with a market that sees inflation edging higher when July data lands later this week.
The session perfectly captured the split-personality of the ‘Milei trade’ — the bet that pro-market reforms will revive Argentina’s real economy. YPF’s blowout earnings prove that energy deregulation and investment incentives are working, which validates the bullish equity story. Yet country risk at 465 points tells a parallel tale: bondholders still fear a messy devaluation or a missed payment down the road. The variable to watch is the July inflation print due later this week; a reading above June’s 2.4% would erode real returns on local-currency assets and test whether the Merval’s rally can survive without a simultaneous drop in country risk.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval index | 3,122,064 | +1.14% | Energy-led advance |
| YPF (YPFD) | — | +3.7% | Record Q2 profit, capex boost |
| USD/ARS official | 1,498 | −0.04% | Tightly managed |
| Country risk (EMBI+) | 465 bp | Wider | Bond selling resumed |
| Merval vs 52-week high | −0.1% | — | Near record territory |
The Merval sits just a hair below its all-time high, having rallied for most of 2026 on the back of the Milei reform programme. The index has more than doubled from its 52-week low of roughly 1.32 million points, a move that reflects both real economic improvement and the mechanical effect of high inflation on nominal share prices.
The official peso traded almost flat at 1,498 per dollar. That extraordinary stability, enforced by the central bank’s daily interventions, keeps inflation expectations in check but draws frequent criticism from economists who argue the real exchange rate is becoming dangerously overvalued. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,848,945
—
-10.97%
2,859,051
—
—
—
USD/ARS
1,545
-0.03%
+8.82%
1,546
1,545
1,545
—
YPF
6,505
+0.46%
+15.44%
6,475
6,675
6,360
708,971
GGAL
4,950
-0.95%
-40.39%
4,998
5,140
4,933
548,462
PAMPA
4,290
+0.29%
-17.29%
4,278
4,390
4,235
351,604
TXAR
693.00
-1.28%
-19.41%
702.00
709.50
673.50
619,637
ALUAR
774.50
+0.58%
-29.51%
770.00
784.50
771.00
192,215
TGS
7,240
-0.55%
-17.93%
7,280
7,450
7,120
44,794
CEPU
1,678
+1.76%
-25.09%
1,649
1,678
1,600
129,716
MIRGOR
1,740
+0.00%
-92.00%
1,740
1,780
1,695
3,523
COME
31.18
+2.20%
-49.58%
30.51
31.40
30.76
3,810,293
LOMA NEGRA
2,978
+1.79%
-12.78%
2,925
3,003
2,853
34,896
BYMA
198.00
+0.00%
-32.82%
198.00
201.25
193.50
2,776,937
TELECOM ARG
3,340
-1.18%
-8.15%
3,380
3,490
3,293
11,295
GLOBANT
48.84
+3.02%
-22.36%
47.41
48.86
46.75
706,761
MERCADOLIBRE
1,490
-2.77%
-29.02%
1,533
1,523
1,470
584,446
Live Company IntelligenceYPF Sociedad Anonima — the full investor dossier
03 Why it moved — YPF’s blowout quarter
YPF delivered a net profit of US$1.205 billion for the April-to-June period, the second-best quarterly net result in the company’s history, and announced it would accelerate capital spending in Vaca Muerta during the second half of the year. That spending climbed 16% year-on-year in the quarter alone.
For global investors who follow Argentina through the CEDEAR programme — local certificates that track US-listed shares — YPF’s numbers validated the core thesis behind the ‘Milei trade’: that deregulation and fiscal discipline would unlock the country’s vast energy wealth.
The company also confirmed the sale of its 70% stake in gas distributor Metrogas to Edenor, controlled by businessmen Daniel Vila and José Luis Manzano, for US$780 million. The deal marks YPF’s exit from the gas distribution business after 14 years and sharpens its focus on exploration and production in Vaca Muerta.
The broader rally was held back by the bond market. Argentine dollar bonds fell across the curve, pushing country risk up to 465 points. Traders cited nervousness ahead of the July inflation report, with private forecasts pointing to a monthly rise between 1.8% and 2.4%, which would break a two-month streak of declining inflation.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| YPF (YPFD) | — | +3.7% | Record profit; Vaca Muerta push |
| Ternium Arg (TXAR) | — | +5.5% | Global steel tailwind |
| Pampa Energía (PAMP) | — | +0.7% | Tracked energy rally |
| Central Puerto (CEPU) | — | −0.9% | Utility under pressure |
| BYMA | — | −1.5% | Exchange operator profit-taking |
Ternium Argentina, the steelmaker known by the ticker TXAR, was the session’s top domestic gainer with a 5.5% jump on just US$3 million in turnover. The move extended a global rally among steel producers on expectations of stronger infrastructure spending in North America and Asia.
Among the most-traded names, turnover was concentrated in YPF at US$14 million, followed by Grupo Galicia at US$7 million and Pampa Energía and Banco Macro at US$3 million apiece. Volume in those top four stocks accounted for the majority of the day’s activity, confirming that institutional money remains tightly focused on the liquid energy and banking names that anchor the Merval.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Merval | Argentina | +1.14% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −0.19% |
| IPC | Mexico | −0.75% |
| IPSA | Chile | +0.11% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | +0.94% |
Argentina’s Merval was the region’s standout performer, contrasting sharply with losses in Brazil and Mexico. Brazil’s Ibovespa, which tracks the São Paulo exchange, slipped 0.19% as traders locked in profits after the central bank’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut to 14.00%.
Colombia’s COLCAP rose 0.94%, making it the second-best performer in the region, as bargain hunters stepped in after a string of declines. Mexico’s IPC dropped 0.75%, the worst of the day, reflecting caution around industrial production data due on Tuesday.
06 The technical picture
The Merval at 3,122,064 sits about 8% below its 22 July record of 3,395,937, putting it in uncharted territory. The steady grind higher across 2026 has been characterised by shallow pullbacks and quick recoveries, a pattern that technical analysts describe as a ‘buy-the-dip’ regime.
Trading volumes on Monday were moderate, which often accompanies August sessions when decision-makers are away from their desks. The key technical level to watch on the upside is 3,150,000, a round-number barrier that would likely trigger algorithmic buying if broken with conviction.
For the peso, the 1,498-to-1,500 band has become a de facto ceiling in official trading, and the currency’s 52-week range between 1,321 and 1,500 underscores just how tightly the central bank has managed the exchange rate. The risk, flagged by former central bank president Martín Redrado in a report released over the weekend, is that rising non-performing loans in the private sector signal stress under that veneer of stability.
Redrado’s proposal for ‘creative solutions’ to rising loan defaults — without fresh public spending — landed on Monday’s tape and served as a reminder that the real economy remains fragile even as the Merval flirts with all-time highs. For equity bulls, the test will be whether earnings, like YPF’s record quarter, can continue to outrun the debt-market anxiety captured by country risk.
07 What to watch
- July inflation print: Private forecasts range from 1.8% to 2.4%. A reading above June’s level would break a two-month streak of slowing inflation and could pressure local-currency assets.
- YPF capex execution: The promised acceleration of Vaca Muerta spending is now market-facing: any delay or reduction would hit not just YPF but the entire energy supply chain that dominates the Merval.
- Country risk trajectory: At 465 points and rising, sovereign debt stress could eventually bleed into equities if it triggers forced selling from emerging-market funds with hard risk limits.
- IMF programme review: Argentina’s next scheduled review with the International Monetary Fund will dictate reserve accumulation targets and the pace of the managed currency crawl; both directly affect the ‘Milei trade’ thesis.
Background: Argentina RIGI: BCRA Eases FX Access for Insurers.
Background: Argentina Country Risk Hits 451 Basis Points.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Merval and how much did it move?
The Merval is Argentina’s benchmark stock index tracking the most liquid companies on the Buenos Aires exchange. It rose 1.14% to 3,122,064 points on Monday.
Why did YPF jump so much?
YPF reported a record US$1.205 billion quarterly profit and promised to accelerate investment in the Vaca Muerta shale formation. It also confirmed the US$780 million sale of its Metrogas stake to Edenor.
What is country risk and why did it rise?
Country risk measures the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine bonds over safe US Treasuries, expressed in basis points. It rose to 465 points because bonds sold off on fears that inflation is reaccelerating.
What is the official peso rate and how does it work?
The official peso rate (USD/ARS) is the exchange rate used for most trade and financial transactions, managed by the central bank through daily interventions. It slipped 0.04% to 1,498 per dollar, near the top of its 52-week range.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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