Venezuela Economy Seen Growing 6% to 7%

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VENEZUELA · ECONOMY

Datanálisis, a Venezuelan polling and analysis firm, expects the Venezuela economy to grow 6% to 7% in 2026, with inflation near 350%. Luis Vicente León, the firm’s president, presented the figures this week at a congress of Cavececo, a chamber of shopping centers and merchants.

For US readers, Venezuela is an oil economy that matters to American energy companies and to sanctions policy. The outlook points to a rebound, but prices are still rising far faster than in the United States.

What the Forecast Says

León expects Venezuela to grow 6% to 7% over the full year 2026, with price rises of about 350%. His firm expects a stronger second half of the year.

The call sits close to his earlier view of at least 7% growth, which he gave on Wednesday, 14 October 2026. That view rested on oil contracts already signed and being carried out.

León says the economy is very sensitive to oil, and that growth starts from a small base. He adds that weak electricity supply is holding back faster growth.

How It Compares With Official Data

Venezuela‘s central bank, the BCV, reported that the economy grew 7.14% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier. The first quarter had grown 2.51%.

The BCV said monthly inflation fell to 6.2% in October, the lowest of 2026, after 8.4% in September and 8.9% in August. Prices rose 225.3% from January through September.

The International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 outlook sees 5% growth this year and average inflation of 467.9%. Datanálisis is more optimistic on growth, and the IMF figure is an average over the year, so the two inflation numbers differ in kind.

The BCV credits the slowdown to coordination with the government, fiscal discipline and steadier inflows of foreign currency. Our report on the October figure has the details.

In Plain English, Who Is Who

Datanálisis is a Venezuelan firm that runs opinion polls and publishes economic forecasts for businesses. León is its president and one of the country’s best-known economic analysts.

Cavececo is the chamber that represents shopping centers and merchants. A 350% annual rate means that prices end the year about 4.5 times higher than at the start.

What It Means for You

Venezuela’s recovery runs through oil, so the forecast matters to US energy companies, refiners and investors watching sanctions policy. Our report on Venezuelan oil shipments to the United States tracks one part of that trade.

Growth of 6% to 7% from a small base does not mean household incomes recover quickly, because prices are still rising fast. Businesses selling into Venezuela should expect prices to keep changing quickly, as the guide to Venezuela’s transformation explains.

What Is Not Known

It is not clear whether the 350% refers to price rises over calendar 2026 or to the twelve months to December. The two measures differ, and the BCV’s figure through September was 225.3%.

The oil price and exchange-rate assumptions behind the forecast have not been published. The BCV has not yet released growth data for the third quarter.

More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Background: Brazil Economy Explained, US$2.65 Trillion in 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Datanálisis expect for Venezuela’s economy in 2026?

The firm expects growth of 6% to 7% and inflation near 350%. Its president, Luis Vicente León, presented the figures this week.

How fast are prices rising in Venezuela now?

The central bank reported monthly inflation of 6.2% in October, the lowest of 2026. That is still fast, since 6.2% a month would roughly double prices in a year.

How does the forecast compare with the IMF?

The International Monetary Fund sees 5% growth and average inflation of 467.9% for 2026. Datanálisis is more optimistic on growth.

What drives Venezuela’s growth?

Oil leads the rebound, and growth starts from a small base. Weak electricity supply is a drag on faster growth.

Sources: Banco Central de Venezuela, inflation releases for September and October 2026 and second-quarter GDP release, 3 October, 4 November and 18 August 2026; International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 2026, October 2026; Datanálisis, presentation by president Luis Vicente León at the Cavececo congress, this week, published 5 November 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief