The fragile situation of popular sectors increases social tension in Argentina

The increase in food prices and in the basket of products that determine the poverty line fully impacts the standard of living of the most vulnerable classes and intensifies the pressure on the “Frente de Todos” progressive government.

Recovering income and maintaining social peace: the main challenge for the government.

The beginning of 2023 brought economic indicators that worry the Government of President Alberto Fernández.

While the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, attends to the pressure on the reserves and the official dollar, the increase in the cost of living of the most underprivileged sectors puts inflation and food prices back at the center of the public agenda.

The 7.2% rise in the Basic Food Basket (CBA) and the Total Basic Basket (CBT) – which set the threshold of indigence and poverty, respectively – in January, surpassing the monthly inflation that stood at 6%, falls like a bucket of cold water in an officialism that took office in 2019 with the mission of reversing the strong impact of the crisis on the most unprotected layers of society after the Government of Mauricio Macri (2015-2019).

MAKING ENDS MEET

Price increases hit the most vulnerable population hardest, which in 2022 suffered the fifth consecutive year of falling incomes.

While cumulative inflation over the last 12 months was 98.8%, the year-on-year increase in both baskets exceeded 108%.

That is to say: the poor felt a price increase in basic products that exceeded the economy’s general level by 10 points.

“The situation is very delicate. Inflation does not stop eating away at family incomes: people are in bad shape because they cannot afford the money,” Silvia Saravia, a member of the Barrios de Pie Y de Libres del Sur movement, told Sputnik.

“We are in a situation of frank economic deterioration that impacts much more on the popular sectors,” Saravia maintains.

The fragility of the scenario worries the specialists of the ruling party.

For Daniel Arroyo, national congressman of Frente de Todos and former Minister of Social Development of the Government, “the main problem is the increase in food prices“.

Even though the conflict in Ukraine and the anti-Russian sanctions multiplied the prices of basic products, the congressman acknowledged to Sputnik that Argentina has “a clear structural inflation that exceeds the rest of the world”.

“It is clear that inflation is responsible for the fact that money is not enough and that food prices complicate the situation,” Arroyo acknowledged.

ANGUISH FROM BELOW

Every figure that the state manages has a story behind it.

Susana Cárdenas, 48 years old, founded the cooperative dining room “El Señor de los Milagros” in the City of Buenos Aires La Paternal neighborhood 13 years ago.

Every day she offers lunch to more than 300 people with nothing to eat.

“The situation is tough. Families with four members order food for eight people to save them and have something to eat for dinner,” says Susana.

The scarcity of resources suffered by the people who go to the cooperative is reflected in the “lung” work done by those in charge of maintaining it.

“We put money from our pocket. Sometimes we ask the greengrocers, who offer us fruits that are already ugly, but at an accessible price”, maintains the institution’s founder.

The resources that sustain the dining room have different origins since the state support is insufficient.

“In the last few years, the government has greatly reduced its aid: it is not enough with what we receive, that is why we appeal to the help of the neighbors”, says Susana.

“The amount we receive is enough to buy carafes and have gas only one week a month. Otherwise, we cook with firewood that the neighbors help us to get,” she says.

SOCIAL PLANS, THE FOCUS OF THE DEBATE

The tasks carried out by Susana and her team of collaborators – who work in the dining room from Monday to Friday from 7 am to 1 pm – are paid by the State through the Potenciar Trabajo.

The plan offers a sum equivalent to half a minimum wage – $67,743, equivalent to US$388 at the official exchange rate – in return for community tasks.

“We work six hours, but the state only pays us four. We would love to give food on Saturdays and Sundays, but we can’t afford it,” says Susana.

This social program gave rise to the last wave of protests at the national level following the audit carried out by the National Ministry of Social Development, which resulted in suspending more than 100,000 plans due to incompatibilities in the registration of the beneficiaries who received them.

“What happened is a disaster. It’s good that public spending is audited, but first, they suspended people’s plans, and only now are they reviewing it,” denounces Silvia Saravia.

“There are many people who are left out after this cleaning that they promoted in the Ministry”, adds the leader.

“The audit was an excuse to cut spending in this program,” says Saravia.

According to the social worker, the measures announced by the Government mark a change of orientation in the progressive identity with which it came to power.

Of course, the vision is not unanimous.

From the government, the response frames the protests as part of a generalized malaise.

“What was done was to revalidate the data. The claims are not only about social issues but also about the labor issue: basically, the demands have to do with the fact that income is not enough”, Arroyo answers.

PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT, THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN

The slogan behind the launching of Potenciar Trabajo is to turn social plans into genuine jobs.

However, the challenge clashes with the reality of employment.

“Today, Argentina has 40% of labor informality, and this scheme will last for many years. Unfortunately, this will not end in the short term”, says the former minister.

Despite the adverse conditions faced by a significant portion of the workers, Arroyo rescues the creation of jobs: “Today there are more jobs, because whoever is looking for a job always gets a changa [informal job]”.

The contrast between the increase in the number of jobs and their precariousness is reflected in the working-class neighborhoods.

“People only get jobs in ‘changas’, but soon after, they return to the canteen because they are usually for a couple of days,” says Susana.

“The registered jobs are only for a few months since the workers are fired after a short time.

Precarious employment has grown a lot during this time,” warns Saravia.

HORIZON OF UNCERTAINTY

The adversities that the popular sectors are going through are part of a scenario of uncertainty in the face of a year marked by the economic challenges the Government will face before the presidential elections in October.

“We do not have good prospects for 2023. All of the International Monetary Fund’s conditionalities aim at deepening the adjustment. That the IMF audits us is not a good thing: it has a full impact on workers’ income”, Saravia points out.

In this framework, the social leader does not rule out a deepening of the protests intensified in the last months of 2022.

“The situation did not improve, nor did we have answers from the Ministry. The government decided to adjust no matter what, and that is why we will face this reality by taking measures of struggle”, says the social worker.

“We will surely deepen the plan of struggle because we see a Government very determined to make cuts in the items destined for the poor”, Saravia points out.

The officials of the Frente de Todos notice the transcendence of the objective of containing the social situation.

According to Arroyo, “the challenges that will mark the course of the Government are two: to improve incomes and stabilize food prices. This last stretch of the Government will be judged by whether it stabilizes food prices. That is the key.”

With information from Sputnik