ETHIOPIA · SECURITY
Key Facts
- What is happening Sudan’s army-led government complained to the UN Security Council, the UN’s top peace body, and the African Union on Sunday, 1 November. It says drones strike Sudan from Ethiopian soil; Ethiopia denies it.
- Why it matters The charge links Sudan’s war to Ethiopia’s own fight with Tigray-based rebels, raising the risk of a wider Horn of Africa conflict.
- The numbers Sudan’s Sovereignty Council, the army-led ruling body, claims 70 attacks with 187 one-way drones between 15 February and 27 October, and 484 civilians killed or wounded. These are Sudan’s own unverified claims.
- Who is who Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group, have fought since April 2023. Ethiopia’s army chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accuses Sudan and Egypt of backing Tigray-led rebels.
- What to watch Whether the Security Council or the African Union’s Peace and Security Council takes up the complaint, and whether Ethiopia answers it formally.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, gives a Sudan civil war ceasefire by 31 December a 9% chance, with US$15,100 traded (2 November, 1:50 p.m. ET).
- What it means for you The State Department says do not travel to Sudan, and rates Ethiopia Level 3, Reconsider Travel, with Level 4 in several regions; neither advisory changed with this complaint.
Sudan says drones hit its cities from Ethiopian soil. Ethiopia denies it and accuses Sudan’s army of backing Tigray rebels.
Sudan’s army-led government has asked the UN Security Council and the African Union to act against Ethiopia over drone strikes. It says the RSF launches armed drones into Sudan from Ethiopian soil.
Ethiopia denies the charge. For US readers, it links Sudan’s war to Ethiopia’s own conflict, and both countries carry State Department travel warnings.
What Sudan Says in Its UN Complaint
Sudan’s foreign ministry issued the complaints in a statement late on Sunday, 1 November. It called the conduct aggression and a hostile act that places Ethiopia in violation of international law.
The Transitional Sovereignty Council, which governs Sudan’s army-held areas, published a report the same day. It says armed drones have taken off from Ethiopian soil since February 2026.
Its figures cover 15 February to 27 October: 70 attacks and 187 one-way attack drones, which crash into their targets. It counts 484 civilians killed or wounded and 176 soldiers killed, with about 200 wounded.
In October alone the Council counts 28 attacks with 97 drones. These are Sudan’s own claims, and none has been independently verified.
Sudan names three alleged launch sites in Ethiopia. They are Asosa airport in the west, the Kurmuk and Gizen border area, and the Bahir Dar air base in Amhara region.
- RSF: the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group that has fought Sudan’s army since April 2023.
- Sovereignty Council: the army-led body that governs the parts of Sudan the army holds.
- Tigray rebels: armed groups from Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region that are fighting Ethiopian federal forces.
- Security Council: the UN body that can act on threats to international peace.
- AU Peace and Security Council: the African Union body for crises, based in Addis Ababa.
The Toll Sudan Cites
Sudan points to an attack on Friday, 9 October, on displaced families at Wad el-Mahi in Blue Nile state. It says 30 civilians died, 26 of them women and four children, and about 100 were wounded.
Sudan says the strikes also hit civilian sites and power stations. Power cuts reached several states, including Khartoum, Al-Jazirah, White Nile and Gedaref.
The UN says drones killed more than 1,100 people across Sudan in the first half of 2026. That figure covers every party in the war, not only the strikes Sudan blames on Ethiopia.
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What Ethiopia Says
Ethiopia denies the accusations and says Sudan’s army backs Tigray rebels. On Tuesday, 5 May, its foreign ministry called an earlier set of Sudanese drone charges “baseless”.
Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, Ethiopia’s army chief, said in late September that Tigray-led forces need backing from Sudan, Egypt and others. Sudan’s army rejected this on Sunday, 27 September.
Sudan’s army said the RSF, in turn, receives training and supplies from inside Ethiopia. Ethiopia has not formally answered the 1 November complaint in the material reviewed.
Related Rio Times reports are Sudan Accuses Ethiopia of Hosting Drones and Drones Hit Three More Sudan Power Sites. See also Egypt Denies Any Role in Ethiopia’s Northern Conflict and Sudan Blames Ethiopia, UAE for Drone Strikes.
For background, read Ethiopia Geopolitics Explained 2026 and Who Backs Each Side in Sudan’s War. More is on the Ethiopia and Sudan hubs, and the Addis Ababa city page.
What Prediction Markets Say
On 2 November at 1:50 p.m. ET, Polymarket priced a Sudan ceasefire by 31 December at 9%. Only US$15,100 had traded on that contract, and US$119,639 across the family of ceasefire dates.
Polymarket also gave Eritrea invading Ethiopia by 31 December a 13.5% chance, with US$60,671 traded. These are bets by traders, not forecasts by governments.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
The State Department tells Americans not to travel to Sudan because of armed conflict, and says it cannot provide consular services there. It rates Ethiopia Level 3, Reconsider Travel, in an advisory reissued on 1 April 2026.
Ethiopia’s Level 4 areas include Tigray, Afar, Amhara and the zones within 50 kilometres (31 miles) of the Sudan border. Asosa, Kurmuk and Bahir Dar, the places Sudan names, sit in border or Level 4 regions.
What Is Not Known
None of Sudan’s figures has been checked independently, and the text of the complaints was not available. Ethiopia has not formally answered the 1 November complaint in the material reviewed.
Who operates the drones, and from where, is not established. Sudan blames the RSF, and no RSF reply to these charges was found.
Egypt’s position on Ethiopia’s charge was not found. No date for discussing the complaint at the Security Council or the African Union had been announced.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who accuses whom in the Sudan and Ethiopia drone dispute?
Sudan’s army-led government accuses Ethiopia of letting the RSF launch drones from its soil. Ethiopia denies this and accuses Sudan’s army of backing Tigray-linked rebels.
How many drone attacks does Sudan blame on Ethiopia?
Sudan’s Sovereignty Council claims 70 attacks with 187 one-way drones between 15 February and 27 October. It counts 484 civilians killed or wounded, and the figures are unverified.
How has Ethiopia responded?
Ethiopia denies the accusations and says Sudan’s army backs Tigray rebels. In May its foreign ministry called an earlier Sudanese drone charge baseless.
Is it safe for Americans to travel to Sudan or Ethiopia?
The State Department says do not travel to Sudan. It rates Ethiopia Level 3, Reconsider Travel, with Level 4 for several regions.
Sources: United Nations Security Council, documents and letters from member states; African Union Peace and Security Council; US State Department, Ethiopia travel advisory, 1 April 2026; US State Department, Sudan travel advisory; Polymarket market data, 2 November 2026, 1:50 p.m. ET (all accessed 2 November 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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