SOUTH AFRICA · ANALYSIS
Key Facts
- What is happening South Africans voted on Wednesday, 4 November 2026, for councils in all 257 municipalities. Results are due within seven days.
- Why it matters The African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority in 2024 and now governs with the Democratic Alliance (DA).
- The numbers In 2024 the ANC won 159 of 400 seats and the DA 87, so the ANC needed partners.
- What it means for you US holders of rand (South African currency) assets should watch whether the ANC-DA pact holds before 19 November.
South Africa’s national government is a ten-party coalition, and its stability rests on the partnership between the ANC and the DA. Today’s local elections, the first nationwide vote since the coalition formed in June 2024, show how far that partnership reaches into city halls.
South Africa elects its municipal councils today, Wednesday 4 November 2026, in 257 municipalities. This analysis explains how coalitions work from the national Government of National Unity (GNU) down to city halls, and why they so often break, building on the Rio Times Africa Intelligence Brief.
From Majority Rule to the Government of National Unity
From 1994 until 2024 the African National Congress (ANC), the party of Nelson Mandela, held a majority in the National Assembly, the 400-seat lower house of Parliament. On 29 May 2024 it won 159 seats with 40.18% of the vote.
A governing party needs 201 seats, so the ANC was 42 short. On 14 June 2024 the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA), until then the main opposition party, signed a statement of intent to form a Government of National Unity (GNU).
Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC leader, was re-elected president by the National Assembly on 14 June 2024. By late June the GNU had ten parties, among them the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and six smaller parties.
Those six are GOOD, Rise Mzansi, Al Jama-ah, the Pan Africanist Congress, the United Democratic Movement and the Freedom Front Plus. The 2024 result for the six largest parties was as follows, with seats counted out of 400.
- ANC: 159 seats, 40.18% of the vote
- DA: 87 seats, 21.8%
- MK Party (uMkhonto weSizwe, founded by former president Jacob Zuma): 58 seats
- Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a left-wing party: 39 seats, 9.52%
- IFP: 17 seats, 3.85%
- PA: 9 seats
The MK Party and the EFF are outside the GNU and sit in opposition. The MK Party took 45.35% of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal in the 2024 provincial election and won 37 of 80 seats.
That made it the largest party in the province that is home to Durban. The partnership has already been adjusted once.
On 30 June 2026 Ramaphosa changed the national executive after consulting the DA’s leadership. Willem Aucamp of the DA became Agriculture Minister, and David Maynier of the DA became Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment.
The Parties and What Each Wants
The GNU is an ANC-led partnership, and the DA is its largest partner. Each party below is described by its role, using only what is confirmed for 2026.
- ANC: the largest party, with 159 seats and the senior partner in the GNU. Ramaphosa is president and Paul Mashatile is deputy president.
- DA: the second-largest party, with 87 seats, a GNU member and the governing party in Cape Town. Geordin Hill-Lewis is federal leader, and Leon Schreiber is the DA minister of Home Affairs.
- MK Party: an opposition party with 58 seats, led by Jacob Zuma.
- EFF: an opposition party with 39 seats, led by Julius Malema, its founder.
- IFP: an early GNU partner with 17 seats, led by Velenkosini Hlabisa, who is also the minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (COGTA), the ministry that oversees local government.
- PA: an early GNU partner with 9 seats.
- Freedom Front Plus: a GNU member since June 2024, with 6 seats.
- ActionSA: a party with 6 seats outside the GNU, whose candidate Herman Mashaba, a former Johannesburg mayor, is a candidate for mayor of Johannesburg.
Hill-Lewis was elected DA federal leader at a congress in Midrand on 12 April 2026. He succeeded John Steenhuisen, who did not seek re-election and is now Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition.
Why Municipal Coalitions Break
Councils Have No Binding Rulebook
Councils elect their mayors and speakers at their first sittings, so a party without a majority must bargain for every post. South Africa has no binding coalition framework in law yet, which leaves those deals to the parties themselves.
In the 2021 local elections the ANC won 45.59% of the vote, the DA 21.62% and the EFF 10.32%. The ANC’s 40.18% in the 2024 national vote was lower than that 2021 council share, so it enters this contest with less room to spare.
The Reform Bill
The Local Government: Municipal Structures Amendment Bill (B23-2026) is before Parliament. According to Parliament, it proposes these changes:
- mandatory written coalition agreements
- longer timeframes for calling first council meetings, electing speakers and appointing mayoral committees
- new rules on voting methods and on removing municipal office-bearers
- a requirement that councillors who become office-bearers have relevant experience, skills or qualifications
Parliament’s committee on Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs is taking public comment until Friday, 27 November 2026.
What 4 November Could Change
The Size of the Vote
The contest covers 257 municipalities: 8 metros (the big cities), 44 districts and 205 local councils. There are 10,526 council seats.
More than 29 million voters are registered. The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), the independent election body, certified 136,790 candidates, against 95,427 in 2021.
Three Scenarios
These are scenarios, not forecasts, and no official results had been published when this was written. Mayors of the eight metros, including Johannesburg, where ActionSA’s Herman Mashaba is a candidate, will be chosen only after the count.
In the first scenario the ANC holds most metros and the DA keeps Cape Town, which would leave the GNU largely as it is. Both parties would then keep a reason to stay together in the national government.
In the second scenario the DA gains ground and the MK Party does well in Durban, which would force new alliances and test the ANC and DA relationship nationally. The MK Party’s 45.35% in KwaZulu-Natal in 2024 shows the size of its base there.
In the third scenario many councils are hung, meaning no party has a majority, and coalition talks drag on. Until the reform bill passes, the parties would negotiate under today’s rules.
What It Means for You
Markets look at coalition risk through three prices: the rand, South African government bonds and Johannesburg-listed shares. We found no verified post-vote price move at the time of writing.
The South African Reserve Bank, led by Governor Lesetja Kganyago, raised its repo rate (the main policy rate) by 25 basis points to 7.00% on 28 May 2026 and held it on 23 July. It added another 25 basis points to reach 7.25% on 23 September, and Kganyago said rates are expected to stay broadly stable for the rest of this year.
The Reserve Bank’s next rate decision is on 19 November 2026. Unemployment stood at 33.6% in the second quarter of 2026, with youth unemployment at 47.4%, according to Statistics South Africa, the national statistics agency.
A US reader with emerging-market bond funds, rand exposure or mining shares should treat council coalitions as one input beside rates and commodities.
What Is Not Known
No official results had been published when this analysis was written. Who will run the eight metros depends on coalition talks after the count.
No post-vote market moves were available either. The final form of the reform bill is also not known.
What to Watch
- 5 November 2026: the first market reaction in the rand and government bonds.
- By 11 November 2026: the legal deadline for the Electoral Commission to declare results.
- After the count: mayoral votes in the eight metros, including Johannesburg, Tshwane, eThekwini (Durban) and Nelson Mandela Bay.
- 19 November 2026: the Reserve Bank’s rate decision.
- 27 November 2026: the deadline for public comment on bill B23-2026.
- 2029: the next national election, after the five-year parliamentary term.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is South Africa’s Government of National Unity?
It is a ten-party coalition formed in June 2024 after the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority. The ANC won 159 of the 400 National Assembly seats in the 2024 election, 42 short of a majority.
Which parties are in the coalition?
The ANC, the Democratic Alliance (DA), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) are in it, joined by GOOD, Rise Mzansi, Al Jama-ah, the Pan Africanist Congress, the United Democratic Movement and the Freedom Front Plus. The MK Party and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are outside it.
Why do South African municipal coalitions collapse?
Councils elect mayors by vote, and South Africa has no binding coalition framework in law yet. A party without a majority must therefore bargain for every post, and those deals rest on trust alone.
What would the coalition bill change?
Bill B23-2026 proposes mandatory written coalition agreements and longer timeframes for constituting councils. Parliament’s committee takes public comment until 27 November 2026.
When will the local election results be known?
The Electoral Commission (IEC) must declare results within seven days, so by 11 November 2026. In 2021 it declared them on 4 November, three days after the 1 November vote.
What should US investors watch after the vote?
Watch the rand, South African government bonds and whether the DA and ANC stay together in the GNU. The Reserve Bank’s next rate decision is on 19 November 2026.
Sources: gov.za, gov.za, sanews.gov.za, parliament.gov.za, resbank.co.za, statssa.gov.za. Retrieved 4 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief