Quaest Poll Puts Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a Statistical Tie
Brazil · Politics
Key Facts
- —The runoff In the latest Quaest poll, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 43% to 40%, a gap inside the margin of error.
- —The first round Lula takes 38% and Flávio 31%, keeping the president comfortably ahead in the opening vote.
- —The government Approval sits at 46% against 48% disapproval, leaving Lula narrowly in the red.
- —The method Quaest interviewed 2,004 people from August 10 to 13, with a margin of error of two points.
- —The trend Lula’s runoff lead has slipped from eight points in July to just three now.
Lula still leads on paper, yet his once-comfortable margin has shrunk with every wave since July. And his government now sits slightly underwater.
A fresh Quaest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie for Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. The president leads a simulated runoff 43% to 40%, but that three-point edge falls inside the survey’s margin of error.
So the two men are, for now, effectively neck and neck.
What the new Quaest poll found
Released on August 14, the survey hands Lula a runoff of 43% against 40% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Because the margin of error is two points, pollsters call that a technical tie.
In the first-round scenario the picture looks calmer for the president. There, Lula draws 38% and Flávio trails at 31%, a clearer seven-point cushion.
A lead that keeps shrinking
The headline story is not the tie itself but the direction of travel. Back in July, Lula led the same matchup by eight points, 45% to 37%.
Then an early-August wave narrowed that to 44% against 39%. Now it stands at 43% to 40%, so Flávio has closed the gap steadily over six weeks.
Why this Quaest poll matters
Each new wave sets the tone for a race that is still more than a year from the ballot box. As a result, a shrinking lead reshapes how both camps talk about momentum.
For Flávio Bolsonaro, drawing level with a sitting president is a genuine milestone. For Lula, it is a warning that his early advantage was never locked in.
A government sitting underwater
The vote-intention numbers arrive alongside a sobering read on the government itself. In this wave, 46% of Brazilians approve of Lula’s administration while 48% disapprove.
That leaves the president two points in the red, with the rest undecided. Still, the split is tight enough that a few good months could flip it back.
The first round versus the runoff
The two scenarios tell slightly different stories. In the opening round Lula’s lead looks solid, because the vote splits across several smaller candidates.
But a runoff strips the field down to two names, and that is where the race tightens. Once the also-rans drop away, their supporters scatter and the gap narrows.
Who else is in the field
Beyond the two front-runners, the contest still features a cluster of minor names polling in low single digits. Governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema sit in that group, alongside Renan Santos.
None of them has yet broken out of the pack. For now, the race reads as a duel between the president and the senator, with everyone else fighting for third.
How the survey was done
Quaest interviewed 2,004 people in person across Brazil between August 10 and 13. The margin of error is two percentage points, at a 95% confidence level.
The study was commissioned by Banco Genial, and the series is often branded Genial/Quaest. That regular cadence is what lets analysts track the trend so closely.
How it compares with earlier waves
This is a distinct new wave, not a rerun of older numbers. In May, Quaest had the runoff at a dead heat, 42% to 41%.
Then July opened an eight-point Lula lead before it began to fade. So the August reading confirms a real tightening rather than statistical noise.
What to watch next
The next few waves will show whether Flávio‘s climb is a trend or a plateau. Meanwhile, the first televised debates could shake the numbers loose in either direction.
Lula’s team will want to steady the government’s approval score. Flávio’s camp, by contrast, will try to turn momentum into a durable lead.
What did the latest Quaest poll show?
It put Lula at 43% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% in a simulated runoff. A statistical tie within the two-point margin of error.
Who commissioned the survey?
The poll was ordered by Banco Genial and runs under the Genial/Quaest banner. With fieldwork carried out from August 10 to 13, 2026.
How does Lula’s government rate?
Approval stood at 46% against 48% disapproval, leaving the administration narrowly underwater in this wave.
Is Lula’s lead growing or shrinking?
Shrinking. His runoff margin has fallen from eight points in July to three points now.
Connected Coverage
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo; Estadão; O Globo; G1.
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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief