Lula Edges Flávio Bolsonaro 42% to 41% in Quaest Runoff Poll
Key Facts
—The headline: Genial/Quaest’s May 13 poll shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 42% to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s 41% in a potential second-round vote, a numerical edge inside the 2-point margin of error and a reversal from the April poll, when Flávio led 42% to 40%.
—The first round: Lula leads 39% to 33% against Flávio Bolsonaro in the stimulated first-round scenario, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema at 4% each, Renan Santos at 2%, and three other candidates at 1% each; 37% of voters say their choice could still change.
—The approval read: Lula’s government approval climbed to 46% from 43% in April, with disapproval falling from 52% to 49%, the narrowest gap since February 2026; women’s approval flipped positive (48% vs 44%), and independent voters’ approval rose from 32% to 37%.
—The other scenarios: Lula wins more comfortably against alternative right-wing candidates: 44% to 37% over Zema, 44% to 35% over Caiado, 45% to 28% over Renan Santos, leaving Flávio as the only opposition challenger who can hold the race close.
—The methodology: 2,004 in-person interviews conducted May 8-11 across Brazil with a 2-percentage-point margin of error at 95% confidence; registered with Brazil’s Electoral Court under code BR-03598/2026.
The five months between this poll and the October vote will run on a tightening race in which both campaigns are functionally fighting for the 37% of voters who say they can still change, against a backdrop of a Banco Master scandal that has reached both Lula’s economic team and Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign strategist, and with Jair Bolsonaro ineligible until 2030.
What does the runoff number actually mean?
Lula’s 42% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 41% sits inside the 2-point margin of error, so the formal interpretation is a statistical tie. The directional move matters more than the absolute spread: Flávio led 42% to 40% in April. The five-point shift in the relative position over four weeks is consistent with the parallel improvement in Lula’s approval rating and the absence of a comparable approval-side improvement for the opposition.
The first-round scenario tells a clearer story. Lula at 39% against Flávio at 33% reflects a 6-point lead at the top of the field, with Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of the Novo party tied for third place at 4%. Newcomer Renan Santos of the new Missão party registers 2%, while Augusto Cury, Cabo Daciolo and Samara Martins each have 1%. The right-of-center field is more fragmented than the left, where Lula remains the dominant candidate, per Gazeta do Povo.
What changed since the April poll?
Three demographics moved in Lula’s favor between April and May. Independents shifted from 32% approval to 37%; women shifted from 45% to 48% approval and inverted the gap with disapproval; and the 35-to-59 age cohort moved 6 points on approval, from 41% to 47%. Regional improvement was concentrated in the South, Southeast and Central-West/North, all regions where Lula has historically underperformed.
| Scenario | Lula | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd round vs Flávio Bolsonaro | 42% | 41% | +1 (within margin) |
| 2nd round vs Romeu Zema | 44% | 37% | +7 |
| 2nd round vs Ronaldo Caiado | 44% | 35% | +9 |
| 2nd round vs Renan Santos | 45% | 28% | +17 |
| 1st round, stimulated | 39% | 33% (Flávio) | +6 |
Source: Genial/Quaest May 2026 poll, 2,004 interviews May 8-11, margin of error 2 percentage points.
Two events in the polling window are likely contributors. On May 12, Lula signed a provisional measure scrapping the 20% import duty on cross-border purchases under US$50, a tax that had been criticized as anti-consumer and which is now removed five months before the vote. Separately, the Federal Police executed search warrants against Senator Ciro Nogueira of the PP in connection with the Banco Master scandal, a development that touches both Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign and Lula’s centrist Congressional alliance, per Revista Fórum.
Where is each candidate’s base?
Lula’s first-round lead is anchored in the Northeast, where he has 58% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 26%, and among voters earning up to two minimum wages, where Lula leads 47% to 26%. Both groups are core constituencies for Brazil’s two flagship social-transfer programs, Bolsa Família and Auxílio Brasil. Flávio Bolsonaro’s strongest regions are the South and parts of the Southeast, particularly São Paulo and Paraná, where evangelical voter density and the residual Bolsonaro family brand carry electoral weight.
The 37% of voters who say their choice could still change is the contested terrain. That share has fallen from earlier polls but remains the structural risk for both candidates. Lula’s defense of the runoff lead depends on holding the independent and centrist gains shown in this round; Flávio Bolsonaro’s path to victory requires consolidating right-wing voters currently fragmented between Caiado, Zema and Renan Santos. Both Caiado and Zema have not formally declared, leaving open the possibility of a strategic withdrawal.
What should investors and analysts watch next?
- Banco Master fallout for both campaigns: the senator targeted by the Federal Police is a key Lula congressional ally, and the campaign strategist behind Flávio Bolsonaro’s run has been linked to a related “Projeto DV” payment trail. Either side could lose ground if the investigation expands.
- Right-wing field consolidation: the combined 6% currently held by Caiado, Zema and Renan Santos is the available pool for a Flávio Bolsonaro consolidation. Watch for declarations of candidacy and strategic withdrawals over the June-August window.
- Selic and inflation trajectory: April’s 0.67% IPCA print and the Selic at 15% are squeezing middle-class households. Any Copom rate cut or inflation moderation would help Lula’s approval rating; an oil-driven inflation spike would hurt it.
- Tarcísio de Freitas decision: the São Paulo governor remains a wildcard. His entry would scramble the first-round arithmetic and likely pull from Flávio’s base.
- Iran war and oil prices: the energy-price shock is already lifting domestic fuel and food prices. A prolonged conflict would feed into IPCA prints through October and pressure Lula’s approval.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Jair Bolsonaro not on the ballot?
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court declared former president Jair Bolsonaro ineligible until 2030 in 2023, citing abuse of political power and improper use of communications channels during the 2022 campaign. He cannot run for office, leaving his son Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of Rio de Janeiro as the leading right-wing candidate carrying the family brand.
What is a “technical tie” in Brazilian polling?
When the difference between candidates falls within the poll’s stated margin of error, the result is described as a technical tie or technical draw. In this case, Lula at 42% to Flávio Bolsonaro at 41% is within the 2-point margin, so neither candidate can be statistically distinguished as leading. The directional move from the previous poll, however, is still meaningful for trend analysis.
When are the 2026 Brazilian elections?
The first round is scheduled for October 4, 2026. If no candidate reaches 50% plus one of valid votes, a second round between the top two candidates is held on October 25, 2026. Both rounds elect the president, all federal deputies, two-thirds of senators, and all state governors and state assemblies.
Who are the other major candidates?
The right-wing field includes Ronaldo Caiado, governor of Goiás and a PSD member; Romeu Zema, governor of Minas Gerais and a Novo party member; and Renan Santos of the new Missão party. None of the three has reached double-digit support in any major poll, leaving them as either consolidation candidates for an eventual Bolsonaro endorsement or potential spoiler candidates depending on second-round dynamics.
How reliable is Quaest?
Quaest is one of Brazil’s three most-cited polling institutes alongside Datafolha and AtlasIntel. It conducts in-person interviews with a national sample, registers each poll with the Electoral Court, and publishes methodology including margin of error and confidence interval. The May 2026 poll was commissioned by Banco Genial and follows a regular monthly cadence.
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Published: 2026-05-13T17:30:00-03:00 · Updated: 2026-05-13T17:30:00-03:00 · Dateline: BRASÍLIA
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