Election Bet Hits 62% After Senate Flip

BRAZIL · ISRAEL · UNITED STATES · PREDICTION MARKETS

Traders on Polymarket, a large crypto-funded prediction market, now give about 62% to a three-country bet: Brazil’s president Lula wins, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s opposition leader and a former army chief, becomes prime minister, and Democrats win the US Senate. The price rose by about 24 points in 24 hours, and the rise coincided with the Senate result overnight.

The bet is odd, because two of its three parts are already decided. For US readers, it is a live read on the one open question, who leads Israel next, at a moment when Washington’s own politics have just shifted.

What the Bet Actually Says

Polymarket’s “Fall Elections Combo” asks traders to pick one outcome for three votes at once. The three are the winner of Brazil’s presidential election, the first prime minister sworn in after Israel’s election, and the party that wins control of the US Senate.

Prices below were read on 4 November 2026 at about 8:25 a.m. ET.

• Lula, Eisenkot, Democrats: 62.5%, up about 24 points from roughly 38% a day earlier, on Polymarket’s own 24-hour field.
• Lula, Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel’s current prime minister), Democrats: 26.5%.
• Lula, Naftali Bennett (a former Israeli prime minister), Democrats: 2.0%.
• Lula, Eisenkot, Republicans: 0.1%, because the Senate result has gone the other way.

Polymarket spells the Israeli challenger “Eizenkot”; we use the more common Eisenkot. The whole combo has traded US$545,866, and only about US$18,170 changed hands in the last 24 hours.

That is below our US$50,000 line, so we call it thinly traded. A few orders can move the price a long way.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

We found no Kalshi market on this three-way combination. Kalshi is a US exchange regulated in the US by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator, and prices on both platforms are bets, not polls.

Why the Odds Moved

The jump follows the US midterms on 3 November. Democrats flipped seven Republican-held Senate seats, in Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, and the Senate was called for them on election night, ending the Republican majority.

That decided one of the three conditions in a single night. The Republican versions of the combo fell to near zero.

Brazil’s leg was settled earlier. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, won the 25 October runoff with about 51.8% of valid votes, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), as we reported in How Lula Won Brazil’s Runoff.

We found no single trigger beyond these results. The price rose as two of the bet’s three conditions came in.

Israel Is the Open Question

Israel voted on 27 October, and neither side won a majority. In the final count, Netanyahu’s bloc had 53 seats, the opposition led by Eisenkot had 48, and Arab-led parties, which mainly represent Arab citizens of Israel, had 19.

A government needs 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Eisenkot cannot reach 61 without the Arab-led parties, a partnership Netanyahu portrays as a threat to Israel’s Jewish identity.

Israel’s separate Polymarket market on the next prime minister, with US$85.6 million in total volume, gives Eisenkot 52.9% and Netanyahu 30.6% (read at 9:30 a.m. ET). Bennett stands at 4.7%. On Kalshi, a separate market on who succeeds Netanyahu gives Eisenkot 43%. Our earlier reports covered the swings in Israel’s prime-minister odds.

The two Polymarket prices differ because the combo also bets on Lula and the Senate. The larger Israel market is the better guide to the Israeli leg.

Once the Central Elections Committee, which runs the vote, certifies the result, President Isaac Herzog consults the parties and picks who tries first. If no coalition forms, Israel could face another election.

What It Means for US Readers

A Democratic Senate can refuse to confirm judges, officials and ambassadors, and it controls which bills reach a vote. That changes who the president can appoint, as our report on Democrats winning the Senate explains.

For Israel, Washington is the main arms supplier and diplomatic partner. Who leads the next Israeli government, and whether it needs Arab-led parties, will shape how a new Senate handles that relationship.

For anyone holding Brazilian assets through US-listed funds, the Brazil leg is settled, so this bet offers no new signal there. Our Brazil hub follows what Lula’s second term brings.

What It Means for Latin America

A Senate controlled by Democrats runs the hearings and confirmations that decide who represents Washington in the region. That includes ambassadors and officials who handle trade, sanctions and migration questions.

Our Latin America odds page tracks the markets that do cover the region.

What Is Not Known

It is not known who will lead Israel’s next government, or how long coalition talks will take. It is also unclear how many traders hold these positions, since the market has so little daily volume.

We cannot tell how much of the jump reflects the Senate result and how much reflects a few trades. For more market moves, see our Prediction Markets hub.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are prediction markets saying about Brazil, Israel and the US Senate?

On Polymarket, traders gave 62.5% to Lula winning, Eisenkot becoming Israel’s prime minister and Democrats taking the Senate on 4 November 2026. The price rose about 24 points in 24 hours.

Why did the odds jump?

Democrats won the US Senate on election night, and Lula had already won Brazil’s runoff. Only Israel’s next prime minister is still open.

Who will be Israel’s next prime minister?

That is not decided. Neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor Eisenkot’s reached 61 seats, and coalition talks come next. Polymarket’s Israel market gave Eisenkot 52.9% and Netanyahu 30.6%.

Are prediction markets a reliable forecast?

They are real-money bets, not polls, and thin markets can swing on small orders. This combination traded about US$18,170 in 24 hours, so treat the move with caution.

Sources: Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 4 November 2026, 8:25 to 9:30 a.m. ET); Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) runoff results, 25 October 2026; Israel’s Central Elections Committee vote count, 27–29 October 2026; US Senate race calls and state election offices, 3–4 November 2026.