Ex-Army Chief’s Israel PM Odds Jump to 25%

Prediction Markets: Israel

Israel has no clear winner, and traders are again betting that a challenger could end up in charge.

Traders are giving Israel’s challenger a second look. On Kalshi, the exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the chance that Gadi Eizenkot becomes prime minister rose to 25% from 16% a day earlier.

It matters to US readers because Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid since World War II, according to the Congressional Research Service, the research arm of the US Congress. A long fight over who governs delays decisions Washington is waiting on, from Gaza to Iran.

Eizenkot, 66, is a retired general who once led the Israeli army and now heads Yashar, a new party.

What Prediction Markets Say

Three markets were read at about 7:30 a.m. ET on 30 October. These are bets, not polls.

• Kalshi, prime minister after the 2026 election: No one 48%, Eizenkot 25%, Netanyahu 21%, Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, 4%. About 8.3 million contracts have traded overall, about 490,000 in the last 24 hours.
• Kalshi, who succeeds Netanyahu: Eizenkot 27%, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, 9%, Bennett 6%. Only about 139,000 contracts have traded, so this market is thinly traded.
• Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, “Netanyahu out by…?”: 20.5% by 31 December 2026, 26% by 31 March 2027 and 39.5% by 30 June 2027. The December price is up 4 points in 24 hours but still 20 points below a week ago. The December contract has traded about US$3.0 million overall and about US$34,000 in the last day; the March and June contracts each traded under US$22,000 in 24 hours, so they can swing on small bets. Polymarket has no “No one” option, so its numbers answer a different question than Kalshi’s.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Why the Odds Moved

No single trigger was reported; the move came as the final count and the first coalition moves sank in. Israel’s Central Elections Committee finished counting on Thursday 29 October, including the double-envelope ballots cast by soldiers, diplomats and others away from home.

Netanyahu’s Likud party is the biggest with 27 seats (20.5% of the vote). Eizenkot’s Yashar has 21 seats (16.1%), and Bennett’s B’Yachad (Together) party has 12.

Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing and religious parties holds 53 seats, his opponents 48, and the Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra’am, 19 together. The Knesset has 120 seats, so neither side is near 61.

On Thursday 29 October, Netanyahu met his hard-line partners Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich separately. Former prime minister Yair Lapid urged patience, noting the opposition camp is 13 seats short.

Eizenkot accused Likud of running a coordinated campaign to delegitimise the result. Whether that or the arithmetic moved traders is not known; markets show the move, not the reason.

Why a Unity Deal Is Talked About

Reports before the count ended said President Herzog was weighing a unity government of Likud and Yashar. Herzog’s office denied it: “The president has not discussed a unity government with any candidate or Knesset member.”

Eizenkot has said he will not serve under Netanyahu, even in a rotation deal. Both positions pre-date the final count, so they may not reflect today’s stance.

What Happens Next

Herzog’s office is largely ceremonial, but he decides who gets the first chance to build a government. He first hears from each party that won seats.

The chosen person has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. If that fails, the president can turn to someone else, and repeated failure can send voters back to the polls.

Israel has been here before: it held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of repeated deadlock.

What It Means for US Readers

A prime minister locked in coalition talks has less room for big decisions. Washington’s asks on Gaza, Iran and arms deals may wait until a government exists.

If Netanyahu stays with a thin majority, US policy would stay on a familiar path, with more weight on small partners such as Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. A government led by Eizenkot would likely signal a different tone, though no policy platform has been confirmed.

What It Means for Latin America and Africa

Our prediction-market data does not price a direct link to either region. The clearest channels are oil, where Israel–Iran tension moves prices for exporters such as Brazil and Nigeria, and diplomacy.

Morocco normalised ties with Israel in December 2020 under a US-brokered deal, so a new Israeli government could shape that relationship. We have not confirmed any specific policy change.

What Is Not Known

• Whether any bloc can reach 61 seats, and which small parties would decide it.
• Whom Herzog will pick for the first attempt, and when consultations begin.
• Whether the Arab parties or smaller parties will back either camp.
• What each trader reacted to; markets show the move, not the reason.

Frequently Asked Questions

What do prediction markets expect in Israel now?

On Kalshi, “No one” as prime minister is 48%, Gadi Eizenkot 25% and Benjamin Netanyahu 21%, read at 7:30 a.m. ET on 30 October. Traders expect a stalemate, with a growing chance for the challenger.

Has Israel’s new government been decided?

No. The final count gives Netanyahu’s bloc 53 seats and his rivals 48, and 61 of 120 are needed. President Herzog must now consult the parties.

What does the “Netanyahu out” market measure?

Polymarket asks whether Netanyahu leaves office by set dates. It gives 20.5% by 31 December 2026, 26% by 31 March 2027 and 39.5% by 30 June 2027.

How long does a coalition take to form?

The person chosen by the president gets 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. Failure can lead to another candidate or a new election.

Are prediction markets the same as polls?

No. They are real-money bets, not surveys of voters. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator.

Related: Traders See Israel Deadlock, Not a New PM · Herzog to Begin Israel Coalition Talks · Israel Election Odds Split on Vote Day · Prediction Markets hub

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief