ARGENTINA · POLITICS
Key Facts
- The poll AtlasIntel, a Latin American polling firm, measured President Javier Milei’s approval at 38.5% in September.
- The US vote Democrats won control of both houses of the US Congress, with a few Senate races still uncalled.
- The aid Argentina drew about US$2.5 billion of a US$20 billion US swap line and repaid it.
- The next step The new Congress takes office on 3 January 2027, and Argentina votes for president in 2027.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Milei a 44.5% chance of winning Argentina’s 2027 election (6 November, 5:32 a.m. ET).
- Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 60.2 points (November 2026 edition).
Argentina’s president has kept the support of nearly four in ten voters, but the US election has made the next year harder for him. Democrats won control of both houses of the US Congress, and Argentines now ask whether Washington will keep backing Javier Milei, a libertarian who took office in December 2023.
For US readers, the question is about money, because Washington backed Argentina with a US$20 billion safety net in 2025, and American funds hold Argentine bonds that react to every poll. Our earlier look at how many voters Milei keeps shows the base he is defending.
What the Polls Say
AtlasIntel, a polling firm that surveys Latin America online, found that 38.5% of Argentines approved of Milei in September, up from 38% in August. Disapproval fell to 57.2% from 58%, according to a poll of 2,067 adults taken from 2 to 7 October 2026 and released on 14 October.
That is a small recovery, not a surge. Approval was 37% in July, when disapproval stood at 62%, and the poll was taken weeks before the American vote.
The same survey found that 38% of Argentines now have a positive image of Milei, up from 35% in August. Among men, 47.4% approve of his government, against 30.1% of women.
Hugo Haime, head of a Buenos Aires polling firm, told Radio 750 on 2 November that approval is about 34% and disapproval is close to 60%. The gap between pollsters is normal, because each uses a different method and sample.
The US Vote Changes the Map
The Associated Press, the US news agency that calls elections, projected on 3 and 4 November that Democrats won both the Senate and the House of Representatives. A few Senate races, including Alaska and Mississippi, were still too close to call.
The party of President Donald Trump, a close ally of Milei, loses control of the committees that oversee spending and foreign policy. Those committees can ask questions about aid to Argentina, even though they cannot easily stop money that the executive branch already controls.
The US$20 Billion Question
In 2025 the US Treasury backed Argentina with a currency swap line of up to US$20 billion, an arrangement in which two central banks exchange pesos and dollars. Argentina drew about US$2.5 billion, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X on 9 January 2026 that it had been fully repaid.
The Treasury has published little about the terms of the line. Our note on US financing for Argentine energy and mining shows that Washington has also discussed credit for projects, which is separate from the swap.
Democrats in the Senate have asked Treasury for details about the swap line since December 2025. With the new majority, those questions will now come from the party that controls the committees.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, an online platform where users bet real money, gave Milei a 44.5% chance of winning Argentina’s 2027 presidential election on 6 November at 5:32 a.m. ET. It gave Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof 31.5% and former economy minister Sergio Massa 15.4%, with US$1.29 million traded in total.
A separate Polymarket question puts the chance that Milei leaves office before 2027 at about 3% (US$168,000 traded). Traders therefore see an early exit as unlikely.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you own Argentine bonds or ADRs, American depositary receipts that trade in New York, the key signal is whether the Treasury and the International Monetary Fund keep their support. Our report on the warning on IMF aid covers the financing side.
Travellers and US companies in Argentina face no new rules from this news. Polls move slowly, so the first clear signal is likely to come from the next monthly readings.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the new Congress will try to limit the swap line or block new financing. The final margins in the Senate and the House were still being settled when we wrote this.
No poll taken after the US vote has yet measured Milei’s approval directly. It is also unclear whether the larger part of the swap line remains available, because the Treasury has not said.
What Happens Next
The new US Congress takes office on 3 January 2027, and its committees will decide how closely to question Treasury on Argentina. Fresh monthly approval polls in the coming weeks will show whether the US vote has moved Argentine opinion.
Argentina votes for president in 2027, and the election will test whether Milei can hold his base without a friendly Congress in Washington. Our report on Argentine country risk tracks how bond investors are reading that risk.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Milei Have Majority Support in Argentina?
No. AtlasIntel measured 38.5% approval and 57.2% disapproval for September, in a poll taken from 2 to 7 October 2026.
What Is the US$20 Billion Swap Line?
It is a US Treasury currency swap with Argentina’s central bank. Argentina drew about US$2.5 billion and repaid it, Bessent said on 9 January 2026.
Can a Democratic Congress Stop Aid to Argentina?
Democrats can question the swap line and ask Treasury for details. Stopping it by law would still need the White House’s signature.
When Does the New US Congress Take Office?
The new Congress is due to take office in January 2027. Argentina’s own presidential election follows in 2027.
Sources: AtlasIntel poll, fieldwork 2 to 7 October 2026 (14 October 2026); Radio 750 interview with pollster Hugo Haime (2 November 2026); Associated Press election projections (3 and 4 November 2026); US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, statement on X (9 January 2026); Polymarket (6 November 2026).
In depth
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