ARGENTINA · ENERGY
Key Facts
- The country Argentina is a major South American economy led by President Javier Milei, and its Vaca Muerta shale formation in Neuquén province is now its main source of new oil.
- Why it matters YPF and its partner Vista Energy are both listed in New York, and Chevron of the United States is among YPF’s partners in the same northern area.
- Why now The filing was made public on Friday 30 October 2026, one day after YPF held its investor call on third-quarter results.
- What happened YPF applied to enter RIGI, Argentina’s incentive regime for very large investments, for a US$8.729 billion shale oil project called Bajo del Toro.
- The numbers The project targets about US$25 billion of exports between 2027 and 2055 and about 2,900 direct jobs, and it is the first of three filings worth US$44 billion in total.
- What it means for you Holders of YPF and Vista shares and anyone tracking Americas oil supply now have a dated pipeline of Argentine shale projects to follow.
- Still open The government has not yet approved the application, and the terms of any approval are not public.
- Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 61.2 points (October 2026 edition).
In Plain English
RIGI is the Large Investment Incentive Regime, a scheme run through Argentina’s Economy Ministry to attract domestic and foreign capital to very large projects. A company applies, the government evaluates the application, and approval decides which benefits the project receives.
Vaca Muerta is a shale formation in Neuquén province, and shale oil is crude trapped in dense rock that is released by drilling and fracturing. Plateau production is the steady output a field reaches once its wells are drilled, before output starts to decline.
YPF, Argentina’s majority state-owned oil company, which also trades in New York, announced on Friday 30 October 2026 that it had applied to bring a US$8.729 billion shale oil project in Vaca Muerta under the country’s RIGI incentive regime. The project, called Bajo del Toro, expects to export about US$25 billion of oil and gas between 2027 and 2055, according to the announcement as reported by the Buenos Aires outlet Infobae.
The filing is the first of three that YPF plans for the northern part of Vaca Muerta, which together involve US$44 billion of gross investment over 16 to 26 years. It follows a third-quarter profit of about US$1.2 billion at YPF, and it sits alongside the Argentina LNG export project covered in earlier Rio Times reporting.
What YPF Filed for the Project
The application covers two blocks in the north of the formation, Bajo del Toro and Bajo del Toro Norte, where YPF holds 65% and Vista Energy Argentina holds 35%. YPF operates both blocks, and Vista, the New York-listed Argentine shale producer, is covered in a separate report on its third-quarter results.
The plan calls for 440 wells over the life of the project, with production reaching a plateau of about 80,000 barrels of oil a day and 3 million cubic metres of gas a day between 2033 and 2040, according to YPF’s statement quoted by Infobae. The project also includes the infrastructure to treat and move that oil and gas out of the area.
The company expects about 2,900 direct jobs during construction and production, and it puts the project’s investment at US$8.729 billion. EconoJournal reported that YPF’s presentation to investors on Thursday 29 October showed about US$9 billion over 16 years for the Bajo del Toro blocks.
The Other Two Projects in the US$44 Billion Plan
EconoJournal reported that Horacio Marín, YPF’s president and chief executive, told investors on 29 October that the company is working on three projects across five blocks in the north of Vaca Muerta, and that it expects to file them in the short term. The largest covers the La Escalonada and Rincón de la Ceniza blocks, where YPF holds 25%, with US$23 billion of gross capital spending over 26 years and 1,150 wells.
The Narambuena project, where YPF holds 50%, needs US$12 billion over 22 years and 600 wells, with output of 80,000 barrels a day from 2035, according to the same account. Together the three projects would drill about 2,190 wells and reach a gross plateau of about 270,000 barrels of oil a day and 28 million cubic metres of gas a day.
YPF named Shell, Pluspetrol, Chevron and Vista as partners in these northern blocks. Marín said that adding a separate oil project at Loma La Lata, in the south of the basin, would bring YPF’s total oil investment to about US$70 billion, which he called the largest field development in Argentina to date.
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Why the Timing Matters
YPF reported third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, a cash-profit measure, of US$2.503 billion on revenue of US$6.557 billion, and free cash flow of US$901 million. Net debt fell to 0.81 times EBITDA, which the company described in its 28 October filing as its lowest level in more than a decade.
Shale oil output averaged 224,000 barrels a day in the quarter, 32% above a year earlier, and, according to Infobae, reached 245,000 barrels a day in October. Infobae also reported that Marín told investors that daily output reached 252,330 barrels on the day before the call, ahead of the 250,000 barrels a day that YPF’s filing sets as its December exit rate.
Infobae reported that YPF expects to end 2026 with 18 drilling rigs and to raise that to 22 in February, and that it will present its 2027 plan to investors in New York in April. The same outlet reported a final investment decision date of 26 November for Argentina LNG, which YPF’s filing puts at about US$51 billion over the project’s life and about US$29 billion by 2031.
Argentina’s Oil Output and the Regime
Argentina’s crude output reached a record 973,700 barrels a day in September, up 15.5% on a year earlier, according to the Energy Secretariat figures cited by Infobae. Vaca Muerta supplied 698,500 barrels a day of that total, or 71.7%, against 64% a year earlier.
The Economy Ministry describes RIGI as a regime that “impulsa el desarrollo económico del país y atrae inversiones nacionales y extranjeras”, meaning it drives the country’s economic development and attracts domestic and foreign investment. The ministry’s RIGI page does not set out the benefits, so the terms YPF could receive depend on the evaluation of its application.
What It Means for You
For US investors, YPF and Vista are the two listed names tied directly to the Bajo del Toro blocks, and a decision on the application is a dated event to watch. Chevron, a US oil major, is among the partners YPF named in the northern blocks, which gives American capital a stake in the wider plan.
For anyone following oil supply in the Americas, the filing is a statement of intent rather than new production. Argentina’s record September output shows the growth is already under way, and the three projects describe how far YPF wants it to go.
What Is Not Known
The government has not said when it will rule on the Bajo del Toro application or whether it will be approved as filed. The terms of any approval, and the dates for the other two filings beyond “the short term”, are also unknown.
YPF did not say in the statement how much of the US$8.729 billion it will fund itself or how its partners will contribute. The destination of the US$25 billion of planned exports, and the oil price assumed behind that figure, have not been disclosed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bajo del Toro?
Bajo del Toro is a pair of shale oil blocks in the north of Argentina’s Vaca Muerta formation, operated by YPF. YPF holds 65% and Vista Energy Argentina holds 35%.
How much will YPF invest in Bajo del Toro?
YPF estimates a US$8.729 billion investment over the life of the project. The company expects about US$25 billion of exports between 2027 and 2055.
What is RIGI in Argentina?
RIGI is the Large Investment Incentive Regime run through Argentina’s Economy Ministry. The ministry says it drives economic development and attracts domestic and foreign investment.
Is YPF listed in the United States?
YPF trades in New York under the ticker YPF. Vista Energy, its 35% partner in Bajo del Toro, trades there as VIST.
How much oil does Argentina produce?
Argentina produced a record 973,700 barrels of crude a day in September, up 15.5% on a year earlier. Vaca Muerta supplied 698,500 barrels a day, or 71.7% of the total.
Sources: YPF Form 6-K, US Securities and Exchange Commission, 28 October 2026; Infobae, 30 October 2026; EconoJournal, 29 October 2026; Argentina Economy Ministry, RIGI page, opened 31 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief