Ethiopia’s Russian Jets Arrive a Year Early

ETHIOPIA · MILITARY

Ethiopia says it took delivery of the first twelve Su-35 fighter jets from Russia on Wednesday, 28 October, a year ahead of schedule, with four S-400 air defence batteries to follow. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the delivery while in Moscow for the third Russia-Africa summit, which runs on 28 and 29 October.

The jets matter to US readers because Ethiopia is buying Russian arms while Washington urges restraint in the dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea. US sanctions law also allows penalties on buyers of Russian weapons, but no US statement on this deal had been found by 29 October.

What Happened in Moscow

Abiy said Ethiopia had taken delivery of “the first twelve Su-35 4++ Generation fighter jets” under an earlier agreement with Russia. He thanked President Vladimir Putin for helping the aircraft arrive a year ahead of the agreed schedule.

Rosoboronexport, Russia’s state arms exporter, said that day that it had officially handed over the first batch of Su-35 fighters to the Ethiopian Air Force. The Kremlin’s record of Putin’s talks with Abiy lists its chief executive, Alexander Mikheyev, among those present but does not mention aircraft.

The number of aircraft is where the record splits. Abiy’s words describe twelve jets, Rosoboronexport speaks of a first batch, and accounts of the ceremony at Zhukovsky airfield near Moscow describe two aircraft.

Why It Matters

Ethiopia already flies Russian-built Su-27 fighters, so the Su-35 deepens an existing arms relationship. Russia supplied 15% of Africa’s major arms imports in 2021 to 2025, behind the United States at 19% and China at 17%, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported on 9 March 2026.

The US Embassy in Addis Ababa said on 23 October that fighting in the northern region of Tigray “appears to be concentrated in areas outside Mekelle and near the border with Eritrea”. Eritrea told UN Security Council members on 13 October that Ethiopia had spoken of seeking “sovereign access to the sea, through negotiations if possible and force if necessary”.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on 28 October that Moscow would try to host and facilitate a meeting between Ethiopia and Eritrea if both want one. Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki arrived in Moscow on 27 October for the same summit, according to Eritrea’s Ministry of Information.

Eritrea’s Ministry of Information says Isaias will meet Putin on the sidelines of the summit. Earlier coverage looks at the Eritrean UN note about Assab and the military balance between the two armies.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket lists a contract on whether Eritrean forces will enter Ethiopia and take control of territory, and as of 2:40 p.m. ET on 29 October 2026 bettors priced that at 14% by 31 December, with US$60,257 traded. A contract for 31 October stood at 3% on US$57,822 of volume.

The December contract tracks the risk of an Eritrean invasion, not the jet deal, and it requires troops to hold ground for at least 48 hours. A bid of 13 cents and an ask of 15 cents on the December contract make the price a rough signal, not a forecast.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

Section 231 of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act says the President must impose at least five listed sanctions on anyone who knowingly makes a significant transaction with Russia’s defence sector, unless a waiver is certified to Congress. Whether Washington applies it to Ethiopia is unknown.

The State Department rates Ethiopia Level 3, reconsider travel, and the embassy told US citizens on 23 October to avoid the Amhara, Tigray and Afar regions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 17 October that “The last thing the world needs right now is another war”.

Ethiopia owed the International Monetary Fund about US$2.39 billion on 31 March 2026 (1,764.5 million special drawing rights, converted at the Fund’s 27 October rate of US$1.3526 per unit), and the arms deal has no disclosed price. The Fund’s Ethiopia page, read on 29 October 2026, lists 2026 projections of 9.2% growth and 11.8% inflation.

What Is Not Known

No one has said how many of the twelve jets have reached Ethiopia, what the contract is worth, or when the rest and the four S-400 batteries will arrive. Rosoboronexport has described only a first batch.

A hacker group’s October 2025 leak of files said to come from the Russian state technology group Rostec listed six Su-35s for Ethiopia, but neither government has confirmed them. Nothing public shows where the jets will be based.

Eritrea and the US government had issued no public comment on the deliveries by 29 October, and no Ethiopia-Eritrea meeting in Moscow has been announced. A wider explainer on Ethiopian geopolitics gives the background.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many Russian jets did Ethiopia receive?

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says Ethiopia took delivery of the first twelve Su-35 fighters on 28 October. Russia’s arms exporter confirmed only a first batch, and accounts of the Moscow handover describe two aircraft.

What is the Su-35 fighter jet?

The Su-35 is a Russian multirole fighter built by the Sukhoi company. Abiy called it a 4++ generation aircraft and said Ethiopia will also receive four S-400 air defence batteries.

Could the US sanction Ethiopia over Russian jets?

US law allows sanctions on those who knowingly make significant purchases from Russia’s defence sector, and the President can waive them. No US decision on Ethiopia had been announced by 29 October.

What has Russia offered over Ethiopia and Eritrea?

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on 28 October that Moscow would try to host and facilitate a meeting between Ethiopia and Eritrea if both want one. No such meeting has been announced.

Sources: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, statement on the Su-35 delivery, 28 October 2026; Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, remarks on deterrence, 28 October 2026; Kremlin, meeting with Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed, 28 October 2026; Kremlin, third Russia-Africa summit announcement, 26 October 2026; Eritrea Ministry of Information, information note, 14 October 2026; Eritrea Ministry of Information, President Isaias Afwerki arrives in Moscow, 27 October 2026; Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Trends in International Arms Transfers 2025, 9 March 2026; US Congress, Public Law 115-44, section 231, 2017; US State Department, Secretary Rubio’s call with Prime Minister Abiy, 14 October 2026; US State Department, Secretary Rubio’s remarks to the press, 17 October 2026; US Embassy in Ethiopia, security alert, 23 October 2026; US State Department, Ethiopia travel advisory, Level 3 Reconsider Travel; International Monetary Fund, Ethiopia country page, October 2026; International Monetary Fund, SDR valuation, 27 October 2026; World Bank, population, total, Ethiopia, 2025. The Prime Minister’s statement was also posted on his X account; the Rosoboronexport statement, the two-aircraft count and Foreign Minister Lavrov’s remarks were cross-checked against several independent published accounts.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error