Democrats Need Four Seats, Lead Four Races
US Midterms 2026
Published Thursday, 29 October, 12:45 p.m. ET (12:45 p.m. Washington) · Source: SSRS poll data
Five days before Americans vote, the fight for control of the Senate has stopped looking like a long shot for Democrats. Four new polls from SSRS, a nonpartisan US polling firm, put Democrats ahead in Michigan, Texas, Maine and Kansas.
The leads in Michigan and Texas sit outside the margin of error, the built-in uncertainty of any poll. The ones in Maine and Kansas do not, so those races remain open.
For the full picture, see our 2026 US midterm elections guide.
Key Facts
- What happened: SSRS polls show Democrats leading Senate races in all four states surveyed.
- The numbers: Michigan 49%–42%, Texas 49%–43%, Maine 49%–45%, Kansas 49%–45%.
- What happens next: Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi prices Democratic Senate control at about 68% (12:40 p.m. ET, 29 October).
This story is part of our coverage of the 2026 US midterm elections. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
In plain English
Republicans hold 53 of the 100 Senate seats, and Democrats hold 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, which would let them block or steer President Donald Trump’s agenda and judicial nominations.
Four States, Four Close Races
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, leads Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, 49% to 42% among likely voters. The poll of 768 likely voters has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico, a Texas state representative, leads Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, 49% to 43%. That survey of 923 likely voters has a margin of error of 4.2 points.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson, a former Maine state Senate president, leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 45%. The survey of 783 likely voters has a margin of error of 4.5 points, so the race is within the noise.
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 45%, also inside a 4.5-point margin of error. A Democrat has not won a Senate seat there since 1932.
The Michigan and Texas polls ran from 20 to 27 October, and the Maine and Kansas polls from 20 to 26 October. SSRS interviewed likely voters online and by phone.
Why Four Seats Is a Steep Climb
Three of these four seats are Republican-held, which is why they matter for the majority. Michigan is a Democratic-held seat that Republicans had hoped to take, so a Democratic win there protects the party’s base rather than adding to it.
Democrats would have to hold Michigan and flip several Republican seats at once. Even if every lead above held, the four polls alone would not hand them the chamber.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal derivatives watchdog, prices a Democratic Senate majority at about 68%. Its “Who will control the Senate?” market has traded about 21.7 million contracts across both sides of the market, and the figure was read at 12:40 p.m. ET on 29 October.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
A Senate under Democratic control would shape tax, trade and tariff policy, and it would hold the power to confirm judges and cabinet officials. Markets that price in policy risk, from Treasury yields to defence and energy stocks, tend to react to shifts like this.
Our midterm odds page tracks how the numbers move.
What Is Not Known
A poll is a snapshot of stated preferences, not a forecast of turnout. Late deciders, early votes already cast and the quality of the likely-voter screen could all move the final results.
Nor do the polls say whether Democrats can win all the races they need at once. Official results will come from state election authorities after polls close on 3 November.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are Democrats now favoured to win the Senate?
Not yet. They lead in four polls, but Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats need a net gain of four. Maine and Kansas are within the margin of error.
When is the US midterm election?
Tuesday, 3 November 2026. See our midterm poll closing times guide for when results start to arrive.
Sources: SSRS survey data for four Senate races, 20–27 October 2026; Kalshi market data, 29 October 2026; US Senate seat counts. More: midterm polls 2026 data room and the US midterms 2026 dossier.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief