A 9 Point Lead Is Not Enough for the Senate
Published Thursday, 29 October, 7:19 a.m. ET (Washington) · Source: Marist Institute for Public Opinion, Silver Bulletin polling average, Kalshi, US Senate, Clerk of the House
Five days before Americans vote, the polls are leaning one way, and by a wide margin. Democrats lead Republicans by about 9 points in the national congressional poll average, which would be a blowout if it holds on 3 November.The Silver Bulletin, the polling newsletter of US election analyst Nate Silver, weights national polls into one average.On 28 October it showed the Democratic lead at 8.7 points, or 9.2 among voters judged likely to turn out.Our midterm polls 2026 page tracks the numbers, and our 2026 US midterm elections guide explains how the vote works.
Key Facts
- The lead: Democrats lead the national poll average by 8.7 points, or 9.2 among likely voters.
- The vote: Midterm elections are on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, for the whole House and 35 Senate seats.
- The bar: Democrats need 218 of 435 House seats for control, and a net gain of four in the Senate.
- Prediction markets: On Kalshi, a US-regulated market, traders give Democrats 94% to win 218 House seats, as of 7:15 a.m. ET, 29 Oct 2026.
This story is part of our coverage of the 2026 US midterm elections. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
In plain English
Every two years, Americans elect the whole House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate. Because the vote falls halfway through a president’s term, it works as a verdict on the party in the White House, here President Donald Trump’s Republicans.
What the Polls Say Five Days Out
The Marist poll, run by Marist University’s polling institute for NPR and PBS News and released on 27 October, found Democratic candidates ahead 52% to 44% among likely voters. It surveyed 1,289 registered voters on 19 and 20 October.
Behind the headline is the “generic ballot”, the question of which party a voter would back for Congress, without naming candidates. It points to the national mood, and it cannot tell you who wins any single district.
Why the House Looks Easier Than the Senate
The House has 435 seats, and Republicans now hold a narrow majority. Democrats need 218 seats, a majority, to take control for the first time since the 2022 election.
The Senate is harder. Republicans hold 53 of 100 seats and Democrats 47, so Democrats need a net gain of four to reach 51 and control the chamber, because the vice president breaks 50-50 ties.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), traders put the chance that Democrats win the national House vote, counted across all districts, by at least 6 points at 87% and by at least 8 points at 69%. A separate Kalshi market gives Democrats a 94% chance of winning at least 218 House seats, the number needed for a majority, as of 7:15 a.m. ET on 29 October.
These are bets, not polls, and prices can move within minutes. A related Kalshi market on the margin has seen more than 3.6 million contracts, or individual bets, traded.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
A Democratic House would gain the power to investigate the Trump administration and to block parts of the president’s agenda. Foreign governments, including those in Latin America, will watch what that means for tariffs and trade.
Our midterm odds page follows the betting markets daily.
What Is Not Known
No poll can say who will actually vote, and turnout decides close races. A 9-point national lead does not translate into a fixed number of seats, because district maps and local candidates matter.
Polling averages are estimates, not results, and the Senate outcome stays far less certain than the House.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the 2026 US midterm elections?
Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Polling hours vary by state, so there is no single national closing time; see our midterm poll closing times.
What do Democrats need to control Congress?
218 of 435 House seats and a net gain of four Senate seats. Republicans now hold the Senate 53 to 47.
Sources: Marist Institute for Public Opinion; Silver Bulletin; Kalshi; US Senate; Clerk of the House.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error