Decline in supporters identifying as ‘Petista’ in Brazil results in tie with ‘Bolsonaristas’

A Datafolha survey from June 12-14 shows the polarization in Brazil’s political landscape following its closest presidential election.

In this race, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro (PL) by 1.8 percentage points in the second round.

The survey asked respondents to identify with one of the two major political factions: ‘Petista’ (in favor of Lula) or ‘Bolsonarista’ (in favor of Bolsonaro).

The results showed a slight decline in ‘Petista’ identification, with 29% identifying as ‘Petista’ and 25% as ‘Bolsonarista’, with a margin of error of ±2 percentage points.

This represents a gradual decline in ‘Petista’ self-identification since December 2022, which saw 32% ‘Petista’ and 25% ‘Bolsonarista’.

Here’s the trend over time:

• Dec.2022: ‘Petistas’ (32%) and ‘Bolsonaristas’ (25%);
• Mar.2023: ‘Petistas’ (30%) and ‘Bolsonaristas’ (22%);
• Jun.2023: ‘Petistas’ (29%) and ‘Bolsonaristas’ (25%).

Furthermore, when respondents were asked about their level of identification on a scale from “totally Bolsonarista” to “totally Petista”, only 8% did not associate with either side.

In this classification:

• Totally Bolsonarista: 25%
• Closer to Bolsonarismo: 7%
• Neutral: 20%
• Closer to Petismo: 10%
• Totally Petista: 29%
• None: 8%
• Don’t know: 2%

The survey interviewed 2,010 people in 112 Brazilian municipalities.

Finally, on June 17, Datafolha revealed that approval ratings for Lula’s government after six months in office were nearly identical to Bolsonaro’s, well within the margin of error.

From the respondents, 37% rated Lula’s government as “great or good”, 27% as “bad or terrible”, and 33% as “average”.

Bolsonaro had a 33% approval and disapproval rate at this same point in his term.

While Lula holds a slight numerical advantage, this is statistically insignificant and does not definitively place him ahead of Bolsonaro’s six-month approval ratings.

With information from Poder360

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