BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 25 October, 7:28 p.m. ET · Updated 8:17 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s election authority, results feed; Kalshi, a prediction market
Lula, Brazil’s president, leads the official count of the runoff, the second-round vote between the top two candidates, in the Brazil election 2026 with 51.76% of valid votes (votes for a candidate, excluding blank and spoiled ballots). Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 48.24%, with 99.79% of polling stations counted at 8:17 p.m. ET.
That is 64,093,998 votes to 59,735,422, a gap of 4,358,576, according to the electoral court (TSE). Our live map on the Brazil election results page shows each state’s counted share and both candidates’ percentages as you hover over it.
Key Facts
- The count With 99.79% of polling stations counted, Lula has 51.76% of valid votes and Flávio 48.24% (8:17 p.m. ET).
- The gap Lula leads by 4,358,576 votes; the TSE has not called the race.
- Big states São Paulo is 99.84% counted, Rio de Janeiro 99.97% and Minas Gerais 99.66%; together they hold about 40% of voters.
- Prediction markets Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator, priced a Lula margin of victory of at least 3 percentage points at 99% (8:17 p.m. ET).
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every 20 minutes from 5 p.m. Brasília (4 p.m. ET).
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 8.8% · Lula 90.9% (US$215 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.9% · Lula 99.1%
As of 25 October, 8:00 pm ET (00:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Where the Count Stands
At 7:58 p.m. ET, with 86.41% counted, Lula led by 3,096,041 votes. Now Lula leads by 4,358,576 at 99.79% counted, so the lead has widened and is close to its final size.
Lula leads in all nine states of the Northeast, Brazil’s poorer region, including Bahia (71.31%, 99.37% counted) and Pernambuco (69.18%, 99.61% counted). Flávio leads in Paraná (62.58%, 99.95% counted) and Rio Grande do Sul (57.84%, 99.99% counted).
Why the Big States Matter
São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro hold about 40% of Brazil’s 158.7 million registered voters. They came into the count late: São Paulo is now 99.84% counted, Rio de Janeiro 99.97% and Minas Gerais 99.66%.
Flávio leads in São Paulo (53.86%) and in Rio (53.10%). With all three states almost fully counted, the remaining votes are too few to change the national picture much, but the TSE has not yet called the race.
Minas Gerais
Minas Gerais, the second-largest state, holds about 10% of Brazil’s voters and is 99.66% counted. Lula leads there by 98,324 votes, or 50.39% to 49.61%, so it is effectively level.
Lula won the state with 50.2% in the 2022 runoff. In this year’s first round, Flávio took 48.2% there and Lula 43.3%.
By camp, the 14 states and the Federal District (the capital region) that Flávio won in the first round hold 66.3% of voters and are 99.8% counted; he leads in 14 of those 15 areas. The 12 states Lula won hold 33.7% of voters and are 99.6% counted; Lula leads in 12 of the 12.
What Else Is Happening
Voting ran until 6 p.m. ET (7 p.m. in Brasília) after Cristiano Zanin, a justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), ordered an extension nationwide, as we reported earlier.
We have no ruling on any challenge to the vote.
Votes cast abroad are being counted too: with 1,285 of 1,351 overseas sections counted (95.11%), Lula has 53.42% and Flávio 46.58%, according to the TSE.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), priced a Lula margin of victory of at least 3 percentage points at 99% at 8:17 p.m. ET.
The prices are bets, not polls, and they move as each state reports.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Our Brazil election odds page follows the prices live.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil’s stock exchange opens on Monday, 26 October, at 9 a.m. ET, before the New York open. US investors who hold Brazilian shares through American depositary receipts (ADRs), US-listed certificates of foreign stocks, can see early moves in pre-market trading.
What Is Not Known
The TSE has not said when it will declare the winner. We do not know how the last uncounted sections, including the votes still arriving from abroad, will split.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s runoff count?
At 8:17 p.m. ET, with 99.79% of polling stations counted, Lula had 51.76% of valid votes and Flávio 48.24%, according to the TSE results feed. The figures change every minute.
Who declares the winner of Brazil’s runoff?
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) publishes the official results. Early counts and prediction-market prices are not official outcomes.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results feed, resultados.tse.jus.br (data timestamp 8:17 p.m. ET); Kalshi public market data (8:00 p.m. ET).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief