Published Thursday, 29 October, 12:45 p.m. ET (12:45 p.m. Havana) · Source: Florida International University (FIU) Cuba Poll 2026, Polymarket
Most Cuban Americans in Miami want Washington to squeeze Havana hard, and to feed and medicate ordinary Cubans at the same time. A new survey by Florida International University (FIU), a Miami public university, found that 73% support US military action to overthrow Cuba’s government.The same people back selling medicine to the island (73%) and helping its private businesses (74%).The poll adds a Miami voice to the wider debate over cuba news and the Trump administration’s pressure campaign.
Key Facts
- What happened: 73% of Miami-Dade Cuban Americans back US military action to overthrow Cuba’s government.
- The balance: 73% also favour unrestricted medicine sales to Cuba, and 74% favour US aid to its private sector.
- The poll: 1,004 Cuban American adults, 4 to 29 September 2026; margin of error 3.1 points.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket put a US invasion of Cuba in 2026 at 5.5% (US$3.68 million traded; 12:30 p.m. ET, 29 October).
This story is part of our coverage of the cuba news. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
In plain English
The FIU Cuba Poll has asked Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County, Florida, about US policy toward Cuba since 1991. It tells us what a politically powerful community wants, not what Washington plans to do.
A Community Split Over the Method, Not the Goal
The report says Cuban Americans want change in Cuba and differ over the road to it. Support for “maximum pressure”, the Trump administration’s policy of sanctions and an oil blockade, stands at 77%, while 69% say Washington should also improve ordinary Cubans’ well-being.
How Much Appetite for Force?
The 73% figure is a majority view in a poll of one county, and it hides sharp divides. Among the Cuban Americans polled, support reaches 87% of Republicans and 68% of independents, but only 38% of Democrats.
Asked what kind of action they would back, 43% chose a clandestine operation by the CIA, the US spy agency, or other secret activity. Another 28% preferred bombing selected military targets, 14% a land invasion, and fewer than 1% bombing urban areas.
Embargo and Oil Blockade Still Have Majorities
Among those who gave an opinion, 61% favour continuing the US trade embargo on Cuba, now 64 years old. Counting “don’t know” answers, the figure is 56%.
The US blockade, which cuts off fuel shipments to the island, draws 65% support. Among Republicans it is 83%, among Democrats 21%, and respondents born outside Cuba split, at 45%.
The Other Half: Medicine, Food and Private Business
Alongside the hard line, 73% favour unrestricted US company sales of medicine to Cuba and 70% favour unrestricted food sales. A further 74% favour US assistance to Cuba’s private sector to ease the humanitarian crisis.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, price a US invasion of Cuba in 2026 at 5.5%, with US$3.68 million traded. A second market, on a US drone, missile or air strike on Cuba by 31 December, stands at 9.5%, with US$5.49 million traded (as of 12:30 p.m. ET, 29 October).
These are bets, not polls, and they sit far below the 73% who back military action in Miami. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Florida’s Cuban American vote is one of the best-organised blocs in US politics, and this poll shows where it leans before the US midterm elections on 3 November. A White House that tightens pressure on Havana will find support in Miami, while any move to ease sanctions will have to be framed around medicine, food and private business.
What Is Not Known
The poll covers Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade only, so it says little about Cubans on the island or Cuban Americans elsewhere. Results for small groups, such as recent arrivals, carry larger errors.
Nor does it show that the US government is weighing military action. It measures opinion, and no official source cited here describes such a plan.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many Miami Cuban Americans back US military action against Cuba?
73% support US military action to overthrow the Cuban government, according to the 2026 FIU Cuba Poll. Support is 87% among Republicans and 38% among Democrats.
Do they also support aid to Cuba?
Yes. 73% favour unrestricted medicine sales, 70% unrestricted food sales and 74% US assistance to Cuba’s private sector, while 61% of those with an opinion back the embargo.
Sources: 2026 FIU Cuba Poll report (Florida International University); Polymarket; Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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