BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- What is happening Flávio Bolsonaro, the senator who lost Brazil’s 25 October runoff, released a letter on Wednesday, 28 October, thanking Donald Trump and Argentina’s Javier Milei and alleging electoral fraud.
- Why it matters The letter came after he landed in Miami, so a challenge to Brazil’s result now comes from US soil, where Washington has promised him visas.
- The numbers Lula won with about 51.8% of valid votes, roughly 4.4 million more than Bolsonaro, and the letter offers no evidence of fraud.
- Who is who Bolsonaro is a Rio de Janeiro senator and son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers’ Party, is Brazil’s president-elect, due to take office in January.
- What to watch Whether Bolsonaro repeats the “president-elect” claim at his announced Miami news conference, and how the Supreme Court and his own party respond.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives about a 7% chance that the senator, Jair Bolsonaro’s son, is arrested before 2027, with US$24,600 traded (2:34 p.m. ET, 29 October).
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- What it means for you For US readers, no travel or trade rule changes because of the letter, but it adds a political test for Washington’s welcome of Bolsonaro.
Brazil’s defeated candidate thanked Trump and Milei in a letter that first called him the true president-elect. The electoral court says Lula won the 25 October runoff.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the senator who lost Brazil’s runoff, thanked Trump and Argentina’s Javier Milei in a letter on Wednesday, 28 October. His first versions called him Brazil’s “true president-elect”, although Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the vote on 25 October.
He wrote after landing in Miami, having left Brazil while a Supreme Court order required him to surrender his passports. A senior US State Department official said on Tuesday, 27 October, that Washington will issue him visas.
What Happened
He thanks Milei for “courage, sense of justice and legality”. He calls Trump “a great defender of freedom of expression” and thanks the American people for taking in his family.
Bolsonaro writes that he did not flee Brazil but left through it, and that no arrest warrant exists against him. He says he will lead the opposition from abroad by “all peaceful and legitimate means”.
The first version carried an emblem reading “Estados Unidos do Brazil”, the country’s name before 1968, and the “true president-elect” line. Minutes later the emblem was fixed, and by about 5:50 p.m. Brasília time a version saying “leader of Brazil” was out.
What the Record Shows
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs Brazilian elections, announced Lula as winner with about 51.8% of valid votes. His margin is roughly 4.4 million votes, and Bolsonaro’s conservative Liberal Party accepted the result.
The letter blames a voting extension by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin for Lula gaining more than 10 million votes between rounds. Both campaigns had asked for the two-hour extension on Sunday, 25 October, and about 34,000 votes were cast after 5 p.m.
Why It Matters
The letter turns Bolsonaro’s arrival in Miami into a political statement made on US soil. It also urges the international community not to “normalize” what is happening in Brazil.
Valdemar Costa Neto, head of the Liberal Party, said “Não gostei” (“I did not like it”) about the letter on Thursday. He spoke on arriving to visit ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest, with the Supreme Court’s permission.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a US prediction market, shows a 7% chance that Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested before 2027. About US$24,600 has been traded, as of 2:34 p.m. ET on Thursday, 29 October.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
US readers face no new travel or trade rule because of the letter. It does add a political test for Washington, which hosts a man who says he will lead Brazil’s opposition.
Investors in Brazilian assets should note that the letter changes no law and his own party accepts the result. The next markers are the Supreme Court’s response to his departure and any US decision on his status.
Related Rio Times reports are Flávio Bolsonaro Lands in Miami and Flávio Bolsonaro Leaves Brazil for the US. More on the country is on the Brazil hub and on the Rio de Janeiro city page.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether he will repeat the “president-elect” claim at the Miami news conference Paulo Figueiredo, a family ally, announced. No public reply to the letter from the US or Argentine governments has been found.
It is not known whether he will challenge the result in court. No explanation of why the “president-elect” wording was dropped has been published.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Flávio Bolsonaro declare himself Brazil’s president?
His first versions of the letter called him the “true president-elect”, but his own later post says “leader of Brazil”. Lula won the runoff, and the electoral court announced his victory.
Why did Flávio Bolsonaro thank Trump and Milei?
He thanks Trump and the American people for taking in his family, and Milei for “courage, sense of justice and legality”. Argentina’s migration agency says he crossed from Brazil into Argentina on Tuesday, 27 October.
Is there evidence of fraud in Brazil’s runoff?
The letter offers none, and the electoral court says Lula won by about 4.4 million votes. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party accepted the result.
How did Flávio Bolsonaro’s own party react to the letter?
Liberal Party president Valdemar Costa Neto said “Não gostei” (“I did not like it”) on Thursday, 29 October. The conservative party had already accepted Lula’s victory.
Sources: Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), Brazil’s Supreme Court; Brazil’s Federal Police; Brazilian Federal Senate; Flávio Bolsonaro’s letter of 28 October, published on his social media accounts; Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results of 25 October; Argentine National Migration Directorate statement of 28 October; Polymarket market data (all accessed 29 October 2026).
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff start time and results schedule. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.