Copper Faces Tariff Anxiety, Mixed Technicals as Global Trade Hangs in Balance

Copper traded at $5.63 per pound in the morning of July 30, 2025, after a volatile 24-hour window shaped by tariff fears and shifting technical signals, based both on official exchange data and observed market charts.

The rapid price swings began during the last New York session, when announcements of upcoming 50% U.S. tariffs on copper inflamed trading activity.

Inventories at both the LME and COMEX saw a slight uptick as traders moved to secure supply ahead of the new import rules. Exchange data confirms a marginal but noticeable increase in the cash-settlement price and a historic high of COMEX warehouse stocks.

Throughout the day and overnight, the market processed updates from Chile’s mining sector. Production interruptions at key Chilean mines limited global supply, feeding trade anxiety.

Official statements from Chile pointed to a drop in local output, which—supported by exchange figures—has helped copper prices maintain an upward trend despite recent pullbacks.

ETF inflows surged on the U.S. exchanges as investors positioned themselves around the volatility. Asian markets instead showed slight outflows, likely as participants locked in profits from the previous quarter’s rally.

On a technical level, the daily chart presents a market grappling with critical inflection points. The MACD histogram recently narrowed, and the signal line remains positive but weakens.

The daily RSI cooled to the low 60s, well below prior overbought levels, indicating less upward momentum but maintaining a bullish bias.

Spot prices continue to trade above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, yet recent days show that the price struggles to extend gains, highlighting short-term uncertainty.

A closer look at the 4-hour chart uncovers a sharper deterioration in short-term momentum. MACD has shifted negative, while the RSI approaches oversold territory.

The price failed to sustain a test of the upper Bollinger Band and fell sharply toward support levels. Volume ticked higher during sell-offs, confirming increased participation as the market responded to regulatory headlines.

Liquidity, reflected in the NDQ Global Liquidity Index (depicted as a prominent yellow line on the charts), exhibited pronounced volatility of its own.

The index rose sharply as funds rushed into the market, then declined just as quickly, mirroring traders’ transitions from risk-on to risk-off stances.

This liquidity churn provided further confirmation of a market reactive to policy moves and supply updates, rather than following a straightforward macro trend.

In the final analysis, copper’s recent behavior is the product of regulatory disruption and underlying supply tightness. Traders continue to emphasize the real risk in access and cost, preferring tangible supply over speculative positioning.

The tariff implementation date looms, keeping all eyes on government pronouncements and warehouse flows, as fundamentals and technicals remain delicately balanced.

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